POLISH VIEWS ON MARCH 16-17 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000260

SIPDIS

EUR/CE, EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN AF TU PL
SUBJECT: POLISH VIEWS ON MARCH 16-17 GAERC

Classified By: Political Counselor Daniel Sainz for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Poland believes the EU will reach a general
consensus on extending -- for another six months --
suspension of the EU's travel ban on Belarusian officials.
Poland views as a positive initiative the Belarusian Deputy
Foreign Minister's March 6 visit to Warsaw to address Polish
concerns about upcoming elections for leadership of the Union
of Poles in Belarus (the NGO that represents the country's
Polish minority). Poland will use the March 13 elections as
a litmus test of Lukashenka's commitment to pursue other
reforms. Poland has not yet decided whether Lukashenka
should be invited to the May 7 Special Summit launching the
Eastern Partnership, but feels the EU needs "courageous
thinking" on its approach to Belarus. Poland will continue
to press hard for increased EU engagement in Afghanistan at
the Foreign Ministers dinner at the European Council meeting.
Poland shares U.S. views on Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Montenegro, Sudan, Israeli-Palestinian Peace, Syria-Lebanon,
and Iran. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) According to Polish MFA European Correspondent Cyryl
Kozaczewski, Poland is focused primarily on the planned
discussion of Belarus at the March 16-17 GAERC. Kozaczewski
said Poland shares U.S. views on Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Montenegro, Sudan, Israeli-Palestinian Peace, Syria-Lebanon,
and Iran. Kozaczewski said France's renewed push for EU
autonomous sanctions on Iran has met with stiff opposition
from Spain and, to a lesser extent, Italy and Greece.
Kozaczewski reported that trans-Atlantic relations had been
added to the GAERC agenda, but said Poland had not yet
received specific details or proposals from the Czech
Presidency.

BELARUS


3. (C) Kozaczewski expressed optimism that member states
would reach a general consensus -- before the GAERC -- to
extend the EU's suspension of the travel ban for Belarusian
officials. While there are still some problems, Poland sees
sufficient improvement to justify extending the suspension
for another six months. Kozaczewski confided that the Dutch
have expressed opposition, but their reasons have not been
made clear. He noted that Germany is leading the push for
extending the suspension on the basis of Belarus'
"satisfactory" progress on democratization. While Poland
does not completely share the German assessment, Kozaczewski
said the Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister's March 6 visit
to Warsaw was a positive initiative. He explained that the
Belarusian came to Warsaw on short notice to address Polish
concerns about upcoming elections for leadership of the Union
of Poles in Belarus -- the NGO that represents the country's
Polish minority. Kozaczewski said Poland views the March 13
elections as a litmus test for Lukashenka's commitment to
pursue further reforms.


4. (C) Kozaczewski said Poland has not yet decided whether
Lukashenka should be invited to the May 7 Special Summit
launching the Eastern Partnership. While "conditionality is
involved," Poland is currently leaning toward inviting
Lukashenka. He pointed out that the EU had already clearly
specified what conditions Belarus needs to meet in order to
receive an invitation. That said, Kozaczewski argued, "we
need courageous thinking" on how to deal with Lukashenka. If
the EU does not at least consider extending an invitation,
"we will lose the carrot altogether." By holding out the
prospect of an invitation, the EU can "tie Lukashenka's
hands" and prevent Belarusian recognition of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia -- at least until May 7. "After that, we will
have to find another carrot." He noted that Poland,
Lithuania, and the Netherlands are consulting on a nonpaper,
perhaps for distribution at the March 27-28 Gymnich meeting,
on tactical approaches for dealing with Lukashenka.


5. (C) COMMENT: Kozaczewski presented a slightly more nuanced
position than our interlocutors in the MFA's Eastern Policy
Department, who continue to argue that Lukashenka should
receive an invitation as long as there is no back-sliding in
Belarus. END COMMENT.

EASTERN PARTNERSHIP


6. (C) Kozaczewski said he had accompanied MFA Political
Director Witold Sobkow on his visit to Athens in early March.
The purpose of the visit was to ease Greek concerns that the
Eastern Partnership would divert resources from the EU's
efforts in the Black Sea region. Sobkow offered assurances
that this would not be the case, pointing out that the two
initiatives actually complement each other. (COMMENT / BIO
NOTE: Kozaczewski said Sobkow's Greek interlocutors -- and

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Kozaczewski himself -- were "shocked" at Sobkow's "intimate"
knowledge of Turkey's internal politics, especially since
Sobkow has never served in Turkey.)

AFGHANISTAN


7. (C) Kozaczewski said Afghanistan had been removed from the
GAERC agenda, and will now be the topic of the Foreign
Ministers dinner at the European Council meeting. Poland
will continue to press hard for increased EU engagement in
Afghanistan.
ASHE