POLISH MFA ON AFGHANISTAN STRATEGIC REVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000205 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE AND SCA/A E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2019 TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR AF PL SUBJECT: POLISH MFA ON AFGHANISTAN STRATEGIC REVIEW REF: A. STATE 14097 ¶B. STATE 15959 ¶C. STATE 15623 Classified By: CDA Quanrud by reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. In a February 23 meeting with Charge to discuss reftels, Deputy Foreign Minister Jacek Najder suggested that the U.S. strategic review of Afghanistan/Pakistan policy should seek ways to empower Afghanistan's governors, the key to building stability outside the major cities. Najder emphasized that the biggest challenge facing NATO is the lack of policy cohesion between NATO members operating in southern versus northern Afghanistan. He also warned that France's integration into NATO military structures could make some issues more difficult, given intense French criticism of PRT's and resistance to civil society building efforts in general. Najder suggested that members operating in Afghanistan's southern regions make a concerted effort at the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting to close these gaps so that the NATO summit is able to point a clear way forward for the alliance, instead of rehashing old ground. Najder also highlighted the immediate challenge posed by the power vacuum that could emerge between the end of President Karzai's official term on May 21 and the August elections. Speaking personally (please protect),he said Poland does not have enough troops in Afghanistan to accomplish its mission in Ghazni, although the MFA is pushing hard for a temporary surge in the run-up to elections. End Summary. LACK OF NATO COHESION -------------- ¶2. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Jacek Najder said he welcomes and is eagerly awaiting the results of the U.S. policy reassessment towards Afghanistan and Pakistan. Najder, who served as Poland's Ambassador to Afghanistan (2007-08),said the biggest challenge facing the alliance is a lack of policy cohesion between NATO members who are operating in southern Afghanistan and those who are operating in the North. He said that the French argue PRTs undermine the credibility of local administrations, and worried aloud that France's integration into NATO military structures could detract from NATOs vital work in Afghanistan, in part because France's objectives differed from those of the US, UK, the Dutch and the Canadians. Najder emphasized that NATO members operating in Afghanistan's southern "hot zones" should develop a joint strategy on Afghanistan for the March NATO foreign ministers' meeting, clearing the way for a more unified April NATO summit. EMPOWER THE GOVERNORS, ENGAGE THE LOCALS -------------- ¶3. (C) Asked what our goals should be in Afghanistan, Najder said it is critical to empower Afghanistan's regional governors and to strengthen local groups that could counteract the influence of the Taliban. The governors, he argued, are hand-picked by the President, have the President's ear, and -- with our help -- could exercise real influence in their respective regions. Although he described the governor of Ghazni as corrupt, Najder said the Polish Government was hosting him on a visit to Warsaw next week, since it is so important to have good relations between the governor and the Polish troops responsible for the security of his province. Najder said we had to create the conditions and modalities in Afghanistan that were brought to play in Iraq through our strengthening of regional organizations and use of local militias to buffer counterinsurgency efforts. These tactics increased the ability and the motivation of local groups to push back against insurgency groups in Iraq -- the same outcome was desirable in Afghanistan, although the tactics had to differ. Najder pointed to a U.S.-funded pilot project, the Afghanistan Social Outreach Program (ASOP),as an excellent vehicle for this kind of empowerment at the regional level. He urged wider implementation and greater funding for ASOP programs. POSSIBLE POWER VACUUM IN MAY -------------- WARSAW 00000205 002 OF 002 ¶4. (C) Najder expressed concern at the apparent "lack of contingency planning" regarding the power vacuum that could emerge between May 21 -- when President Karzai's term officially ends -- and presidential elections on August 20. He said that the Loyal Jurka could not address the problem, as it had too many empty seats to be considered representative of the entire country now. He said that the Afghan Constitution allows for the chair of the Senate to step in in such circumstances, but this could lead to a situation where a transitional figure would refuse to yield to the electoral process in August. He is concerned that the government could drift listlessly over the summer months. Najder emphasized that "we pushed for a later election, now we have to face the challenges" associated with the delay. 1600 POLISH TROOPS NOT ENOUGH -------------- ¶5. (C) Speaking personally, Najder (please strictly protect) said he feared that Poland's 1600 troops would not be enough to ensure stability in the Ghazni province -- even though Poland will change the force composition to include more combat troops and fewer staff support positions. Najder said he and Foreign Minister Sikorski will push hard for a surge of 300 troops in the run-up to Afghanistan's elections, but they face an uphill challenge in light of Poland's fiscal belt-tightening. He noted that Poland intends to move its special forces troops from Kandahar near the Pakistan border to Ghazni, but this movement requires another country to fill in behind the Poles. Najder was dismayed that after a strategic move to consolidate Polish forces in Ghazni province, Poland had agreed to send a contingent to guard the airport in Kabul. COMMENT -------------- 6.(C) Najder pins great hopes on the US strategic review of Afghanistan and was flattered that we asked for Polish input. He has an extensive background in the region, and shares our desire to succeed where others have failed. The budget situation which has forced the Poles to trim back their hoped-for plus up visibly pains Najder. He is also very worried that NATO is not ready to shoulder the civil society agenda that is part of the U.S. administration's plans for Afghanistan, saving his harshest criticism for France, which he believes to be openly anti-PRT. This stands in contrast to his open admiration for the USG sponsored ASOP pilot program, which he believes is the key to co-opting Afghan regional leaders and securing their support for allied military goals. QUANRUD