SCENESETTER FOR YOUR FEBRUARY 25 MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000185 SIPDIS FROM THE AMBASSADOR TO THE SECRETARY E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2019 TAGS: PREL OVIP MARR US PL SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR FEBRUARY 25 MEETING WITH POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER SIKORSKI Classified By: The Ambassador for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) At the top of Foreign Minister Radoslaw "Radek" Sikorski's agenda when you meet next week will be securing an symbolically important early White House meeting for Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The Poles want an early summit -- preferably by April -- to signal that the new administration is interested in pursuing the deeper strategic partnership with Poland put in motion last year, as well as assure the Polish public that the U.S. fresh start with Russia is not at Poland's expense. A newcomer to the ruling Civic Platform (PO) party, Sikorski owes his position to Tusk, who in turn has given Sikorski broad authority in the area of foreign policy and even key security issues. ¶2. (C) The fate of Missile Defense will also clearly be on Sikorski's mind. Last summer, Sikorski personally sold the Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement (BMDA) to his reluctant Prime Minister -- and both somewhat awkwardly await a U.S. decision on the way forward. Tusk agreed to Missile Defense for three reasons: 1) we asked; 2) saying no was potentially much more problematic than saying yes; and 3) with the U.S. agreement to deploy a rotating battery of Patriots to Poland starting in 2009, Tusk could credibly argue that BMDA on net increased Polish security. I doubt that either Iranian threats or Russian foot stomping played much into Tusk's thinking -- although the Russia incursion into Georgia was "motivating," and provided him additional justification. ¶3. (C) While waiting for our Missile Defense decision, the Poles are also pressing for implementation of the bilateral Strategic Declaration of Cooperation, issued side-by-side with BMDA last summer. The Declaration promises U.S. defense modernization aid, a high-level Strategic Dialogue and the Patriot rotation, slotted to become permanent beginning in ¶2012. Although a negligible military asset next to Russian capabilities, the Patriot rotation puts U.S. boots on Polish soil, something all Poles think will inherently improve their security situation. The Strategic Dialogue is also important to the Minister, who like many here suspect Eastern Europe has fallen off the U.S. radar. ¶4. (C) It will not be news to you that Poland feels under-appreciated and historically buffeted by the winds of U.S.-Russian relations, and for that reason Sikorski will look to you for comfort on a number of issues. He will want to hear that the U.S. is committed to moving forward with the Patriot missile rotation this year, despite uncertainty with Missile Defense and the new page with Russia. He will be looking to get a sense of your priorities for Russia, Ukraine and Georgia, and to gauge your awareness of Polish-Swedish efforts to reach out to states on Europe's border under the so-called "EU Eastern Partnership Initiative." Poland's ongoing exclusion from the Visa Waiver Program grates badly, and Sikorski may ask if you see a way forward with the new Congress. Sikorski will also be wondering if you are willing to support his candidacy for NATO Secretary General, or if any of the new members of NATO stand a chance in this contest. ¶5. (C) It may sound at this point like the Poles are demanding, but they are our consistent strong allies. Polish goals overlap remarkably with our goals. Poles admire America more than any other country in Europe. Sikorski himself is a worthy and frank partner who is not shy about advancing our shared values. Less Russophobic than their predecessors, Sikorski and Tusk nevertheless persistently push to extend European and trans-Atlantic institutions eastward. The Poles served honorably in Iraq and fight without caveats in Afghanistan -- one of the few ISAF partners to do so. (The Taliban's murder of a Polish hostage in Pakistan has redoubled Sikorski's intensely personal commitment to stay the course in Afghanistan.) Helping the Poles succeed with us in Afghanistan, moving ahead with our strategic dialogue, and lashing them to us on regional policy are all extremely worthwhile investments. I urge you to see this first meeting as a downpayment that will pay rich dividends during your tenure. ASHE