POLAND/RUSSIA: MOVING FORWARD IN CHOPPY WATERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000146

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PL RS
SUBJECT: POLAND/RUSSIA: MOVING FORWARD IN CHOPPY WATERS

REF: WARSAW 1409

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Vladimir Putin's proposed spring visit to
Warsaw has not yet been scheduled, but Polish officials tell
us that energy security will likely top the agenda. Prime
Minister Tusk's staff said the media accurately described
Tusk's January 29 meeting with Putin in Davos as a discussion
that focused mainly on oil and gas supplies. The broader
bilateral relationship is too often "driven by newspapers,
statements, and events," our Polish interlocutors complained;
they called for "an equal partnership" based on clear rules
within the framework of a new EU partnership agreement with
Russia. Although Poland and Russia are reportedly close to
concluding a long-sought agreement on navigation rights in
the Vistula Gulf, the Poles are still generally skeptical
that a boost in ties is in the offing. While Russia appears
to be easing its resistance to EU initiatives like the
Eastern Partnership, Polish officials fear that Moscow will
increasingly seek external enemies to distract attention from
Russia's deteriorating economic situation. END SUMMARY.

BUSINESS-LIKE MEETING IN DAVOS
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minister Tusk's meeting with Putin in Davos
featured a "business-like" discussion focused mainly on oil
and gas supplies, according to Malgorzata Urbaniak of the
Prime Minister's Chancellery, who briefed Poloff February 6.
At the beginning of the meeting, Tusk extended to Putin an
invitation to visit Warsaw later this spring. The two
leaders were later joined by the heads of Lukoil and PKN
Orlen. In describing Putin, Urbaniak said, "we all know how
he tends to behave," but Tusk "focused on the subject matter"
instead of Putin's casual demeanor, which several media
reports had characterized "as offending."

PUTIN VISIT: UNDETERMINED AGENDA, BUT SOME ISSUES EMERGE
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Urbaniak, as well as Kacper Wanczyk and Grzegorz
Cyganowski of the MFA's Eastern Policy Department, told us
there was no set date or agenda for Putin's planned trip to
Warsaw. The MFA officials added that Deputy FM Andrzej
Kremer was expected to fly to Moscow this week to nail down
details of the visit. FM Radoslaw Sikorski will make a
follow-up visit in March, according to the press. Maciej
Jakubik, who handles Eastern policy issues at the
Presidential Chancellery, told us it was a positive
development that Putin who the press says last visited Warsaw
in 2002--will come to Poland instead of "summoning us to
Moscow." Jakubik suggested this was perhaps "a sign that
some day we'll be treated as an equal partner." Although
Eastern Policy is not always well coordinated within the
executive branch, Jakubik noted President Kaczynski's support
for Prime Minister Tusk's invitation to Putin, as well as FM
Sikorski's Eastern Partnership initiative.


4. (C) Our interlocutors speculated that energy supplies
would top the list of topics for the visit's agenda (Note:
The two sides are currently negotiating a renewal of supply
contracts set to expire December 31 as well as a contract to
replace intermediator RUE who was cut out of the recent
Ukraine/Russia gas deal). The two leaders are also expected
to discuss navigation rights on the Vistula Gulf, which is
split between Poland and Russia's Kaliningrad region. Both
sides are close to resolving this navigation issue, according
to MFA officials, though they declined to speculate whether
the Prime Ministers would be prepared to settle the issue
finally during Putin's visit. In addition, the Polish side
wants to talk about sensitive historical subjects like the
Katyn massacre--an issue on which the Russian government's
attitude has been "disappointing," according to Urbaniak.
She also speculated that the Russians will continue to raise
objections to the planned U.S. missile defense shield.


5. (SBU) Today's media painted a somewhat brighter picture
than MFA officials of what the planned Putin visit would
accomplish and declared "a warming with Moscow." The press
indicated that the Prime Ministers are expected to sign an
agreement on the Vistula Gulf and on additional Russian gas
supplies. The press also implied that the two will discuss
the possibility of Russia taking part in some projects within
the framework of the EU's Eastern Partnership.


THE BROADER RELATIONSHIP: UNEQUAL PARTNERS
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6. (C) MFA officials expressed frustration that the bilateral
relationship was "driven by newspapers, statements, and
events" and advocated using the EU more effectively as a tool
to "bring rules to the game" and equalize the bilateral
relationship through negotiation of a new EU-Russia
partnership agreement--a process that Poland had earlier
opposed. They noted, however, that such an effort would face
two major challenges: 1) Russian oligarchs and their
political backers--who are protecting their own business
interests, and 2) Moscow's proclivity to use external
conflicts to distract its own population from Russia's
deteriorating economic situation. The MFA also seeks to
broaden the bilateral dialogue beyond the political elite
through initiatives like scientific and cultural exchanges.


RUSSIA THAWS ON EASTERN PARTNERSHIP (MAYBE)
--------------


7. (C) MFA officials told us that when Sikorski first
proposed the Eastern Partnership, Moscow perceived it as a
challenge to Russia's traditional sphere of influence but was
now "less negative" about the idea. Separately, Czech DCM
Jan Tomasek told us that a mid-level Russian MFA official had
raised the prospect of Russia joining the Eastern Partnership
during a recent gathering of mid-level MFA officials
representing the Visegrad countries. Tomasek, however, was
skeptical about Russia's intent and noted the lack of
follow-up from Moscow. He speculated that it might have been
a half-baked effort to complicate implementation of the
Partnership.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) It is unlikely that Putin's visit to Warsaw will
erase Polish skepticism of Russia's motives towards its
neighbors--particularly after Russia's invasion of Georgia,
its disruptive gas conflict with Ukraine, and its threats to
place Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad to "neutralize" the
planned U.S. missile defense system in Poland. However,
Putin's trip could be a step towards further improvements in
bilateral relations--particularly if the two countries sign
agreements on energy and navigation rights on the Vistula
Gulf.
QUANRUD