UKRAINE, POLAND, CZECH REPUBLIC SUMMIT ON GAS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000122 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2019 TAGS: PREL ENRG RS CZ BO UP PL SUBJECT: UKRAINE, POLAND, CZECH REPUBLIC SUMMIT ON GAS, BELARUS, AND EURO-ASPIRATIONS Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. President Lech Kaczynski's January 28 meeting in Wroclaw with Ukrainian President Yushchenko and Czech Prime Minister Topolanek, representing the EU presidency, produced only an inconclusive assessment of the Ukraine-Russia gas agreement. Officials from President Lech Kaczynski's office and the Czech Embassy told us February 2 that no major decisions were made, and offered different perspectives on Yushchenko's demeanor. The Polish official said Yushchenko was concerned about the "ambiguity" of the gas deal but emphasized throughout the meeting that he would respect it. The Czech official, on the other hand, said Yushchenko flip-flopped between declaring his acceptance of the agreement terms and threatening to cancel it on the grounds it would ruin Ukraine economically. Yushchenko also sought reassurances of European support for Kyiv's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The Wroclaw meeting also touched on Belarus; the Polish President's office told us it supported an invitation to Belarusian President Lukashenka to the EU summit in May to launch the Eastern Partnership. END SUMMARY. NO MAJOR DECISIONS, BUT MUCH FRETTING -------------- ¶2. (C) Maciej Jakubik, who handles Eastern neighborhood issues in the Presidential Chancellery, and Jan Tomasek, Czech DCM in Warsaw, told us in separate meetings that "no major decisions" emerged from President Kaczynski's January 28 trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Yushchenko and Czech Prime Minister Topolanek. The meeting--organized at Kaczynski's initiative--took stock of the Ukraine-Russia gas agreement, as well as the damage done to Ukraine'sreputation during the January gas dispute with Russia. Topolanek, according to both officials, pumped Yushchenko for details about the agreement terms and warned the Ukrainian President not to cancel the deal. Topolanek argued that Ukraine was lessening its reliance on Russia by moving towards market prices for energy supplies. Kaczynski warned Yushchenko that Ukraine's credibility in Europe had been damaged and that Kyiv would have to redouble efforts to be seen as a reliable partner. DIFFERENT VIEWS OF YUSHCHENKO -------------- ¶3. (C) Our Polish and Czech interlocutors offered different assessments of Yushchenko's role at the meeting. Jakubik said Yushchenko was concerned about the "ambiguity" of the gas deal but emphasized throughout the meeting that he would respect it in order to avoid damage to Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Jakubik, who participated in the Wroclaw meeting, implied that the Ukrainian President was relatively calm throughout the meeting but noted that Kaczynski and Topolanek appeared frustrated at times when Yushchenko recited long lists of gas-related statistics like "a good Communist bureaucrat." Tomasek, on the other hand, told us the Czech Ambassador participated in the meeting and had observed that the occasionally agitated Yushchenko flip-flopped between declaring his acceptance of the agreement terms and threatening to cancel the deal. Yushchenko emphasized that the agreement Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko negotiated would "economically ruin" Ukraine due to lost transit revenues. He also warned there would soon be a third "gas war" with Russia. According to Tomasek, the Ukrainian president told the other leaders that Europe should thank him for accepting the deal despite the damage Ukraine would incur. WITH WHOM DOES POLAND NEGOTIATE FOR GAS? -------------- ¶4. (C) Kaczynski unsuccessfully tried to discern the fate of RosUkrNego (RUE) and its gas supplies to Poland after the gas deal was brokered. Yushchenko apparently did not know. Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko had bought RosUkrNego's debt, but it was unclear who owned its gas supplies. Jakubik told us that Polish officials were trying to figure out with whom they should deal to resume RosUkrNego's gas shipments to Poland; Gazprom has not responded to their queries. (NOTE: Separate from the current dispute, Poland's state-owned oil and gas company, PGNiG, is in ongoing negotiations with Gazprom to extend contracts set to expire at the end of 2009. GoP officials have long hoped to remove RUE from the deal in favor of such direct contracts with Gazprom.) MIXED RESULTS FOR EASTERN PARTNERSHIP -------------- WARSAW 00000122 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Yushchenko evidently received "a positive response" from Kaczynski and Topolanek regarding Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Jakubik and Tomasek, however, assessed that the Ukraine-Russia gas conflict would probably have a mixed impact on the EU's will to pursue the Eastern Partnership program with Ukraine and its neighbors. On the one hand, the conflict demonstrated the importance of drawing Europe's Eastern neighbors closer to the EU fold, particularly in enhancing Europe's energy security and promoting transparency in the region. On the other hand, the conflict reinforced Europe's perception of Ukraine as an unreliable partner. Tomasek added that the Eastern Partnership faced two other major challenges: 1) the impact of the economic crisis on the EU's will to adopt visa-free arrangements with its Eastern neighbors; and 2) the lack of cooperation among the former Soviet republics. POLISH PRESIDENT'S OFFICE: BRING LUKASHENKA INTO THE FOLD -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Jakubik told us that Yushchenko had voiced support in Wroclaw for drawing Belarus towards the EU, a plea that Kaczynski welcomed. Jakubik strongly endorsed the idea of inviting Lukashenka to the May EU summit that will launch the Eastern Partnership initiative. Poloffs cautioned that the EU should extend such an invitation to Lukashenka only on the basis of significant, demonstrable reforms. Jakubik replied that Europe had to seize this critical moment to draw Belarus to the West before Russia fully engulfs the country. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) It took MFA officials two days to get a read-out on President Kaczynski's meeting in Wroclaw, but Kaczynski and the Tusk government are largely in agreement concerning Poland's underlying policy of drawing its Eastern neighbors into the West's orbit. However, in the case of Belarus, Polish MFA officials have offered differing opinions as to what the EU should require before issuing an invitation to Lukashenka to attend the launching of the Eastern Partnership -- some call only for no back-sliding by Minsk, while others call for further progress. ASHE