POLAND'S POLDIR ON AFGHANISTAN, MIDDLE EAST, IRAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001187 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE, EUR/ERA, NEA/IR E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP EFIN IR PL SUBJECT: POLAND'S POLDIR ON AFGHANISTAN, MIDDLE EAST, IRAN, MACEDONIA, AND TURKEY Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Craig M. Conway for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Poland will respond positively to a U.S. troop increase in Afghanistan and, after interministerial consultations, hopes to announce its own increase soon, according to MFA Political Director Witold Sobkow. Poland prides itself on being a pro-Israel voice within the EU, Sobkow said, but Israel's ongoing settlements and blockage of Gaza humanitarian aid are impeding the peace process. Forging EU unity on Iran sanctions will prove difficult unless the U.S. and EU can bring other like-minded countries -- e.g., Japan, South Korea, Australia -- on board. Poland is trying to create a Group of Friends of the Eastern Partnership -- countries and financial institutions that would contribute to or coordinate with the EU initiative. Although resolution of the Macedonia name dispute is unlikely in the short term, Poland hopes the new Greek government will agree to allow accession talks to proceed. Poland is concerned the new German Government will take too tough a stance on Turkish accession, which could worsen anti-Western sentiment in the country. END SUMMARY. NEW EU LEADERSHIP ¶2. (C/NF) MFA Political Director Witold Sobkow, who travels with FM Sikorski to all meetings of EU foreign ministers, told PolCouns November 25 it would take newly named EU President Van Rompuy and EU High Representative Ashton at least two years to get established in their new positions. The biggest foreign policy challenge facing Lady Ashton will be bringing together the "two legs" (i.e., the Commission and the intergovernmental Council). In particular, the process of transforming Commission representative missions into EU embassies and developing an EU External Relations Service will require a great deal of attention. AFGHANISTAN ¶3. (C) Sobkow stressed Poland's commitment to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, pointing to Poland's strategic decision to prioritize NATO operations over EU/UN peacekeeping missions elsewhere -- "Afghanistan is our top priority." Poland wants to respond positively to the expected U.S. announcement of more troops for Afghanistan. Sobkow refused to be drawn out on PM Tusk's position, but expressed optimism that Poland -- "after further interministerial consultations" -- would announce an increase of between 600 and 1,000 soldiers. Deployment of additional soldiers would likely not take place until March 2010 at the earliest. MIDDLE EAST ¶4. (C) Poland continues to be a strong pro-Israel voice and a proponent of balance in the EU's Middle East policy, Sobkow said. That said, Poland is concerned that Israel's refusal to freeze construction of settlements and to open Gaza border crossings to humanitarian aid has only strengthened Hamas. Sobkow said issues like refugees can be worked out at a later stage in negotiations. Poland continues to press other EU member states to support assistance projects in the West Bank. The EU should step up its lobbying of Arab states -- in the EU-Gulf Cooperation Council and other fora -- to increase financial support for the Palestinian Authority and to take symbolic steps toward recognizing Israel, including granting overflight requests and opening trade offices. Poland continues to stress to other member states that the EU should follow the U.S. lead on the peace process. IRAN ¶5. (C/NF) Asked about the prospect for another round of EU autonomous sanctions on Iran, Sobkow said most EU member states prefer to wait until the USG indicates Iran has run out of time -- "no-one wants to overtake the Obama Administration." Even with a clear signal from the U.S., forging EU unity on Iran sanctions will be difficult, especially given certain member states' economic interests. Sobkow said the U.S. and the EU should coordinate action to convince like-minded states -- e.g., Australia, Japan, South Korea -- to support far-reaching sanctions. Such a move would help to address some EU member state concerns that banks and exporters in non-EU countries would undercut EU autonomous sanctions on Iran. EASTERN PARTNERSHIP ¶6. (C) Poland remains keenly interested in U.S. participation WARSAW 00001187 002 OF 002 in the Eastern Partnership initiative to draw Eastern European countries closer to Western institutions. Sobkow said the Commission would likely not be in a position soon to present a clear set of guidelines concerning the participation of third country NGOs. In the interim, Poland hopes to push forward plans to set up a Group of Friends of the Eastern Partnership, such as the U.S., Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and Norway. He noted that Japan, in particular, seems eager to contribute financially. Poland and Sweden, as co-authors of the initiative, are prepared to add funding; Poland is also pushing for increased EU coordination with the European Bank for Regional Development and the European Investment Bank. MACEDONIA ¶7. (C) On the Macedonia name dispute, Sobkow said the new government in Athens might present an opportunity for resolution. However, Macedonia seems dissatisfied with recent Greek proposals, which are little more than repackaged versions of earlier proposals. Sobkow expressed hope that Greece would accept a compromise solution, under which both sides would agree to move forward with accession talks even without an agreement, i.e., both sides would settle for a commitment to address the name issue in the future. He noted that during the Macedonian foreign minister's November 18 visit to Warsaw, Sikorski had pledged Poland would share its experience with EU accession, just as the Netherlands had done before Poland's own accession to the EU. TURKEY ¶8. (C) Sobkow volunteered that the Macedonia name issue "was nothing" compared to the looming difficulties on Turkey. He predicted the new German Government would take a tough position on Turkish accession, an unwelcome development from Poland's perspective. "We cannot afford to lose Turkey," where anti-EU and anti-U.S. sentiment is on the rise. More troubling is the increasingly Russophile attitude among young Turkish military officers. Strong French and German opposition notwithstanding, Sobkow expressed hope the EU and Turkey would soon be able to open another accession chapter -- environmental issues. FEINSTEIN