POLAND: KEEP BELARUS SANCTIONS, BUT HOW?

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001137

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE, EUR/UMB, EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EUN BO PL
SUBJECT: POLAND: KEEP BELARUS SANCTIONS, BUT HOW?

REF: STATE 112644

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The GoP supports a rollover of the current
EU sanctions mandate set to expire in March 2010, as well as
extending the suspension of travel restrictions against EU
officials, which expires on December 15, 2009. However,
according to MFA officials, Poland still cannot commit to a
"double-rollover" decision to be taken at the November 16-17
EU GAERC meeting; they explained that the MFA was still
weighing options in light of the fluid debate of the issue
among EU members. Polish NGOs, meanwhile, say that
Lukashenka is using more subtle tactics to undermine
oppositionists, independent media, and NGOs in Belarus. END
SUMMARY.

EXTEND SUSPENSION, KEEP SANCTIONS MANDATE, BUT HOW?
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2. (C) Poland wants to maintain EU sanctions leverage against
Belarus, but MFA officials were reluctant to commit to a
"double-rollover" decision to be taken at the EU GAERC
meeting in mid-November. Radoslaw Darski and Malgorzata
Twardowska of the MFA's Eastern Department told us that MFA
staffers were divided on the timing of the rollovers,
particularly given the fluidity of the debate among EU
members. The MFA, however, is aware of Belarus' stalled
reform, a sense reinforced by November 6 press reports on
Belarus' refusal to grant a visa to Belsat Director Agnieszka
Romaszewska-Guzy, who had been slated to participate in a
German-Belarusian Society conference on the EU's Eastern
Partnership in Minsk.

POLISH MINORITY STILL BELLWETHER
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3. (C) The GoP continues to view the treatment of the Polish
minority in Belarus as the litmus test for measuring Minsk's
progress on human rights issues. Darski and Twardowska said
the long-standing impasse over the legal status of the Union
of Poles in Belarus (UPB) was the main driver for MFA's
support for keeping the Belarusian sanctions mandate in
place. The still-unregistered, GoP-backed UPB continues to
spar with a Belarusian government-sponsored version of the
organization. Our MFA interlocutors complained that the two
organizations have been locked in a particularly disruptive
battle over control of GoP-funded cultural centers in Belarus
that provide Polish language classes and information on
Polish history.

LUKASHENKA EMPLOYS MORE SUBTLE TACTICS
--------------


4. (C) In separate conversations, Polish NGO representatives
engaged in democracy promotion in Belarus told us that
authorities in Minsk continue to harass oppositionists,
media, and NGOs, but have shifted to more subtle tactics.
Monetary fines, bureaucratic stonewalling, and threats of job
losses are increasingly replacing beatings and imprisonment.
Pawel Kazanecki, Chairman of the East European Democratic
Center, attributed the shift not only to EU engagement, but
to the regime's success in driving many activists to wage "an
ineffective virtual war against the government" over the
internet rather than demonstrating in the streets.

WAIT AND SEE
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5. (C) The MFA continues its delicate balancing act, trying
to draw Belarus away from Russia's influence while not
appearing to sacrifice human rights -- particularly those of
the Polish minority -- on the altar of improved relations
with Minsk. Recent conversations at the MFA suggest that,
for now, the GoP will not push to remove the mandate for EU
sanctions against Belarus without concessions from Minsk on
the legal status of the UPB.
FEINSTEIN