AUSTRIA: RIGHTWING PARTY EXPECTED TO GAIN IN EU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 000659 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN EP AU SUBJECT: AUSTRIA: RIGHTWING PARTY EXPECTED TO GAIN IN EU ELECTION REF: A. VIENNA 600 ¶B. VIENNA 362 ¶1. (U) Summary: The rightwing, xenophobic Freedom Party (FPO) is expected to place third in the June 7 elections for the European Parliament with about 17 percent of the vote, nearly three times the share it drew in the 2004 elections. The governing Social Democrats (SPO) and People's Party (OVP) are expected to vie for first, with about 27-28 percent each, a decline from 2004. The FPO has run a harshly anti-EU, anti-Muslim, and at times anti-Semitic campaign. It has been criticized by the other parties for its divisive rhetoric. The other parties, except for the Greens, have also been critical of the EU. Public discontent with the EU is expected to contribute to record low turnout. End Summary. FPO Set for Gain; SPO, OVP Vie for First -------------- ¶2. (U) Polls across the board indicate that the FPO is set to more than double, and perhaps triple, the 6.3 percent it polled in a weak performance in the 2004 EU elections. The FPO has gained traction with its harsh anti-EU, anti-Muslim campaign, featuring slogans such as "The West in Christian Hands," and "True Representatives Instead of EU Traitors" (reftels). FPO leader Heinz-Christian Strache, not known for religious devotion, has recently begun to reinforce his xenophobic messages with Christian symbols, drawing sharp rebukes from Catholic leaders. Chancellor Faymann and other GOA leaders have also accused Strache of anti-Semitism for pledging to block Israel from joining the EU. The party recently distributed a comic book in which Strache is depicted as an Austrian Superman defending the homeland against the EU, represented by a bloated, cigar-smoking pig. ¶3. (U) The SPO and OVP are in a tight race for first place, with each polling about 27-28 percent, somewhat less than what the two governing parties won in 2004, but about the same as their take in the September 2008 national elections. If the vote goes according to the polls, the FPO would place third with about 17 percent, followed by the candidate list led by EU whistleblower Hans Peter Martin, with about 15 percent, and the Greens, with about 8 percent. The Alliance for the Future of Austria is polling at about 4 percent and seems unlikely to win one of Austria's 17 seats in the EU Parliament. Other Parties Divided -------------- ¶4. (U) In addition to nearly cornering the market on anger toward the EU and anxieties over immigration, the FPO also has the advantage of being the only party in the race not plagued by internal rivalries. The SPO's lead candidate is the experienced but lackluster Hannes Swoboda, viewed by some in the party as a poor choice. The OVP replaced veteran European Parliamentarian (MEP) Otmar Karas with former Interior Minister Ernst Strasser, a skilled campaigner who, however, lacks the full support of his party. Similarly, the Greens removed Johannes Voggenhuber, their most prominent MEP, in favor of foreign policy expert Ulrike Lunacek, causing a rift within their ranks. Campaigns Devoid of Pro-EU Messages -------------- ¶5. (U) EU-critical themes have dominated the campaigns of all the parties except the Greens, including issues such as whether to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, rising crime for which many blame the Schengen Treaty and EU enlargement, widespread opposition to Turkish EU membership (all parties except the Greens),and opposition to a renewed mandate for European Commission President Barroso (all except the OVP). Disregard for Brussels is expected to contribute to record low turnout, perhaps as much as 10 percent below the 42.4 percent rate in the 2004 elections. Comment: Will Strache Face Backlash? -------------- ¶6. (U) Except for the Greens, who have been largely ineffective, none of the parties have had much to say about the benefits to Austria of EU membership in public; in private, many deplore the turn they have taken in the campaign. The anti-EU tenor of the campaign has played to the FPO's strength. The other parties appeared to find their voice only when they joined together in denouncing Strache for his divisive rhetoric. The criticism of the FPO leader has been broad and intense -- the latest cover of the magazine News depicts Strache as Hitler delivering an VIENNA 00000659 002 OF 002 address. The result of the June 7 vote may indicate whether the critique of Strache (and his party) has awakened voters to his nationalist (tingeing on racist) populism or whether he has successfully identified his party with Austrian sovereignty, values, and patriotism. ORDWAY