New Austrian Climate Realism at Highest Levels

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VIENNA 000054 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR OES/GC AND EUR/CE EPA FOR OIA (ALMEIDA) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG EIND ECON AU SUBJECT: New Austrian Climate Realism at Highest Levels REF: (A) 08 VIENNA 1348 AND PREVIOUS; (B) 07 VIENNA 1819 Sensitive but Unclassified - not for Internet distribution. ¶1. SUMMARY: Faced with a widening gap between promises and performance on emissions reduction, the new GOA is shrinking its climate/energy goals to fit Austria's modest initiatives. Having failed to reach its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reductions goals in the Kyoto period by almost a quarter, the GoA now avoids putting any figures in its official program for the post-Kyoto period. Blessed with extensive hydropower resources, the GoA nevertheless fought Brussels until the 11th hour -- in vain -- over Austria's 2020 target of 34% renewables in the energy mix (currently 23%). Energy-intensive industries here are content with the climate/energy package, and contacts say the Commission might even waive fines for Austria and other Member States missing their GHG reduction goals under the Burden Sharing Agreement, since the EU as a whole will reach its 8% reduction target. END SUMMARY. New GOA Tactic: Be Vague / Avoid Concrete Targets - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. The new GoA seems to have learned from experience not to include verifiable goals on climate change and energy goals unless there is sufficient will to fulfill them. Austria missed its high-profile Kyoto GHG reduction targets (ref A),its goal (introduced in 2007) to have a 45% share of renewables on the energy mix by 2020, and its very ambitious biofuels goals (10% of transportation fuels by 2010). The new GoA domestic program for the period through 2013 has only general language on an "ambitious" climate protection policy, reducing fossil fuel use, promoting environmental technologies, and increasing renewable energy sources. Planned national measures include the introduction of a "Federal Climate Protection Act" (to coordinate policies among Austrian states),EUR 150 million annually for the "Climate and Energy Fund" (septel),and crafting adaptation/compensation measures for energy- intensive industry. With regard to international climate policy, the focus is on "fair burden sharing on CO2 reductions and renewables energies" within the EU climate package and the Kyoto-successor agreement. ¶3. In personnel terms, climate policy has been downgraded. Chancellor Faymann summarily fired his predecessor's "Special Envoy for Climate Change" (Andreas Wabl) and said the task can be handled within existing institutions. Vice-Chancellor Josef Proell (head of the conservative People's Party) knows the issue well as a former environment minister, but is occupied with finance and party responsibilities and is not/not a leading voice on the environment. GOA Tried To Get Lower Renewables Goals... - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ¶4. The EU summit in December 2008 was a first litmus test for the new GoA climate policy. While Austria accepted its 16% GHG reduction target until 2020, the GoA fought until the last minute against the 34% renewables goal (by 2020 / primary energy). Chancellor Faymann argued that according to a study by the Vienna Technical University and the Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Austria could reach at most 28% renewables (from 23% at present). Since the GoA had itself set a 45% goal as recently as 2007, backing away from the 34% mark was a non-starter and Faymann only got the Commission to accept a declaration in the annex to the Renewables Directive that it "acknowledges that some Member States already in 2005 have achieved a high share of renewable energy at the national level". The GOA sees the Commission declaration as mollifying language in case it does not meet the 2020 target. COMMENT: Co- author Stefan Schleicher told us that since the study extrapolates from current energy consumption, if Austria can reduce consumption, a higher renewables share is possible. END COMMENT. ... and Won Generous Co2 Exceptions For Industry - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. Austria was among those member states lobbying in the EU climate package for giving free emissions certificates to energy-intensive industries and relief to automotive producers (Austria has big stakes in steel, cement, and automotive components). Chancellor Faymann announced after VIENNA 00000054 002 OF 003 the summit that most Austrian industry will probably not have to pay for CO2 certificates. NOTE: The final allocation will be known by the end of 2009, and not mid- 2009 as the GoA had preferred. END NOTE. ¶6. A contact in the Austrian Association of Industries, environmental specialist Dieter Drexel, told embassy reps that industry got "100 percent" of its demands at the EU summit and that the "carbon leakage" argument was decisive. Industry claimed that full auctioning of CO2 emission rights would have cost Austria a GDP loss of EUR 17 billion and around 17,000 jobs would have gone abroad. Austrian Industry Lauds MEM Model - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. Drexel was a member of the Austrian delegation to UNFCCC-COP 14 in Poznan (as an industry lobbyist) and gave us his readout, opining "nothing" besides a work plan was achieved at Poznan. There is a "deep gap" between developing and developed countries on almost every issue. Industry's proposal for voluntary agreements on emissions reductions in the developing world in exchange for funding was seen as "affront" by the EU, which insists on governmental agreements. Drexel warned that protectionist measures remain on the table unless parties can agree on agreements that include key industries in China and India to create a "level playing field" for European companies. Drexel praised the U.S.-sponsored Major Economies Meetings (MEM) and its limited participation as a better forum for constructive discussion than the huge UNFCCC conferences. (NOTE: Austria is not a participant in the MEM process). Commission May Clear Austria Of Its Kyoto Goal Failure - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. Observers here say the GOA is backtracking and the EU is unlikely to compel decisive action in Austria. Deputy Director Karl Steininger of the Wegener Center (a leading climate research institution) expressed concern that the new GoA avoids setting measurable goals either domestically or within the UNFCCC/Kyoto framework. Steininger sees no concrete measures which would come close to the 69 mtCO2e target over the Kyoto period 2008-2012 (in 2006 Austria emitted 91 million tons, in 2007 88 mtCO2e) . The GoA is treating its Kyoto goal as a 2012 target -- and not in its original meaning as a five-year average. The GOA's plan to buy 9 mtCO2e in allowances from other coutries and reduce domestic emissions by another 1 mtCO2e will not/not be enough. Steininger suggsted that the EU Commission may waive fines for Mmber States under the EU Burden Sharing Agreemens because the EU as a whole will reach its 8% reuction goal. The breach of the Kyoto Protocol cmmitments itself does not trigger compensation payents, he said. ¶9. Steininger sid Austria's short-term abatement prospects are modest: they include -- discouraging "gasoline tourism" by residents of neighboring countries by raising the fuel tax -- mandating highly efficient and renewable heating systems, and -- massive subsidies for energy-efficient renovations Only the last measure is foreseen in the GoA program. In any case, the current recession will reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions. Will Ordinary Austrians Re-Engage? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. COMMENT: While still a country with high environmental and efficiency standards, in recent years Austria has made a gradual policy shift towards industry interests whenever those conflict with environmental goals. That shift predates the current economic crisis. Government and industry officials now agree that standards cannot be improved without losing competitiveness. The GOA is a strong supporter of biofuels and (all else equal) wants more renewables but further expansion of hydropower resources would meet local resistance and nuclear energy is completely anathema. Transportation -- the biggest source of GHG growth -- is an obvious target but there is no political will for higher taxation or road pricing. The GOA will take steps on the building sector. ¶11. Perceptions are slow to change, and for now the Austrian public does not perceive this anti-environment VIENNA 00000054 003 OF 003 shift (NOTE: Austria's Greens failed to capitalize on the protest mood in 2008 national elections). Eventually ordinary Austrians will discover that the Alpine republic is no longer among Europe's environmental forerunners. While jobs are the biggest concern at the moment, in a country where a noisy highway (or any hint of atomic energy) can lead to civil disobedience, that realization may eventually have political relevance. END COMMENT. GIRARD-DICARLO