RIGHT WING PARTY RUNNING ANTI-MUSLIM VIENNA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 000362 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM AU SUBJECT: RIGHT WING PARTY RUNNING ANTI-MUSLIM VIENNA CAMPAIGN Classified by: Economic-Political Counselor J. Dean Yap for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Austria's right wing, xenophobic Freedom Party (FPO) is utilizing an anti-Muslim message to fuel its campaign to unseat Vienna's Social Democratic (SPO) Mayor Michael Haupl. The FPO has posted placards around town associating Haupl with "mosques and minarets" and asserting that FPO leader Heinz-Christian Strache will protect Vienna from immigration and "Islamization." Political and academic contacts say it is highly unlikely that the FPO could place first in the election, but the party is expected to finish a strong second and could possibly join a governing coalition. The election must take place by fall 2010, but there is speculation that Haupl might call it sooner. End Summary. Campaign Begins, Unofficially -------------- ¶2. (U) Although there is officially no election campaign, nor even a set election date, the FPO has posted a harsh campaign-style placard around town. It features a dark, black and white photo of Haupl next to a color image of Strache. Under the heading "Out with Haupl," it features parallel lists of what the future would hold in store for Vienna under the leadership of each politician. Haupl's list includes "record high crime rates," "layoffs," "mass immigration," and "mosques and minarets." Strache, by contrast, boasts "reduced service fees," "jobs for Austrian citizens," "a stop to immigration," and "an end to Islamization." Anti-Muslim Platform -------------- ¶3. (U) Though the poster mentions economic issues, it was clear from our March 24 conversation with FPO Caucus Director Norbert Nemeth that the real target is Muslim immigration. "Austria's failed integration policy is without doubt the most important part of our campaign," he told us. Nemeth said Austrians are fed up with the flood of Muslim immigrants that has undermined the school system. Austria's lower secondary schools (for non-college-bound students) are dominated by immigrants, particularly Turks, who speak poor German and have little interest in learning, he said. The parents of the "Austrian" students would like to enroll their children elsewhere, but most cannot afford private school. Moreover, he said, Turkish students form gangs that intimidate schoolmates. �A; ¶4. (U) Nemeth said the FPO would break with GOA policy by cracking down on asylum applicants. He averred that the current policy is too lax, granting asylum to many applicants who are merely economic migrants looking for a better life. For example, he said, Austria has taken in thousands of Chechens in recent years while other EU states have accepted very few, if any. The FPO also favors an overall moratorium on immigration. Haupl "Fat, Lazy, Imperial" -------------- ¶5. (C) At the same time, Nemeth acknowledged that personalities are likely to play an even larger role than issues in the Vienna election, and this is another area where the FPO expects to gain ground. While Haupl was once an effective politician, he has grown "fat, lazy, and imperial" after 15 years in the mayor's office, he said. Nemeth added that Haupl's health, "is not the best, to put it politely," an apparent reference to rumors of heavy drinking. ¶6. (U) Haupl, for his part, is taking Strache's challenge seriously. On March 23, his deputy, Grete Laska, announced she was stepping down. Laska had drawn fire for her role in a mismanaged construction project at a city amusement park, and political observers view her resignation as part of an effort by Haupl to gird himself for the election. FPO Unlikely to Place First -------------- ¶7. (U) A range of politicians and academics have told us they consider it highly unlikely that Strache could finish ahead of Haupl in the race; Nemeth also conceded this point. But our contacts expect the FPO to do well enough to break the absolute majority the SPO currently enjoys in the city council. They predict that the most likely result would be an SPO-OVP governing coalition. It is possible that the FPO and OVP could team up to form a right-of-center majority, but our contacts consider this unlikely. VIENNA 00000362 002 OF 002 ¶8. (C) Nemeth said the FPO is open to the idea of a coalition with the OVP or another party; it is the other parties that habitually rule out a coalition with the FPO, not the other way around. While the FPO's goal is to unseat Haupl, the party will not suffer if it achieves a strong second place while remaining in opposition. "At the national level, it doesn't matter much whether we're in the government or opposition in Vienna," he said. "The important issue is our level of support among voters." That view is consistent with what Lothar Hoebelt, University of Vienna professor of history and cultural science, told us about Strache. Noting dismissively that Strache was a dental technician in his previous career, he said, "Strache has no vision. He's comfortable as an opposition politician taking shots at the government. He doesn't even want to govern." ¶9. (U) Wolfgang Bachmayer, a leading pollster, predicted to us that the SPO would garner about 40 percent of the vote, down from 49 percent in 2005, and the FPO would follow with about 25 percent. Bachmayer believes the FPO is overplaying its hand by promoting the idea of a Strache-Haupl showdown; while many Vienna voters are tired of Haupl and might be willing to cast a symbolic protest vote for the FPO, they will think twice if they believe Strache could actually become mayor. ¶10. (U) The Vienna elections must take place by fall 2010, but there is speculation that Haupl will call them sooner, to cut short the FPO's campaign time. Some speculate that he could schedule them to coincide with the EU elections in June ¶2009. For his part, Haupl has said the vote will take place in 2010, but possibly in spring rather than fall. Comment: A Disturbing Image -------------- ¶11. (C) The idea of Strache as mayor of Vienna is disturbing enough to keep many Austrians awake at night. The image of the city as a center of culture and sophistication would never be the same. Though we don't expect that to happen, Strache is likely to do well enough to unsettle many sober-minded Austrians. As the comments by FPO leader Nemeth indicate, the FPO has a nasty habit of stoking integration anxieties to no useful effect. The party's stated policies (zero immigration, etc.) are unrealistic, and it is clear from FPO rhetoric that party members consider all Muslims foreigners, even if they were born in Austria. KILNER