CARINTHIAN STATE ELECTION MAY BE LAST HURRAH FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 000228 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2024 TAGS: PGOV AU SUBJECT: CARINTHIAN STATE ELECTION MAY BE LAST HURRAH FOR HAIDER'S PARTY REF: VIENNA 216 VIENNA 00000228 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Econ/Pol Counselor Dean Yap. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Though the vote is expected to be close, the March 1 election in Austria's southern state of Carinthia may well prove to be the last hurrah for the right-populist Alliance for Austria's Future (BZOE),a party established in 2005 by then-Carinthian Governor Joerg Haider. Seen now as benefiting from a sympathy vote following Haider's October death, the party's failure to find a charismatic leader and lack of substantive content doom the party over the long-run. The Social Democratic Party (SPO) is seen as the most likely beneficiary of BZOE weakness; some believe it will squeak out a victory on March 1. In addition, both the far-right Freedom Party (FPO - the party Haider quit in 2005) and conservative People's Party (OVP) are also expected to take some votes from the BZOE. A weak performance by the BZOE is like to lead to new leadership and possibly to factional infighting. The eventual disappearance of the BZOE is likely to benefit the OVP over the mid- to long-term, and though the FPO itself will also gain, the far-right overall could well lose some support. End Summary. The BZOE - Joerg Haider's Fading Heritage -------------- ¶2. (U) In 2005, when Joerg Haider broke the BZOE away from the FPO, one alleged reason was the overly national-conservative ideology of many in the FPO However, the BZOE soon adopted the same nationalist, conservative, anti-immigrant, and populist message that Haider had himself transmitted during his years as FPO leader; observers saw little difference between the parties, other than the personalities of their leaders. Though Haider was able to establish the BZOE as the main party of the far-right in his home state, Carinthia, elsewhere it faded to an also-ran behind the FPO. However, when Haider adopted a "statesmanlike" posture in the September 2008 election, he was able, playing on voter unhappiness with the government, to increase the BZOE's share of the national vote to almost 11 percent. The possible revival of his fortunes was cut short in October 2007, when Haider died in a car accident. ¶3. (C) The BZOE is now facing its first electoral challenge in its home state and seems set to do well, but perhaps not well enough. The party leader, Governor Gerhard Doerfler, lacks anything like Haider's charisma and has made several mis-steps. The party itself is suffering from factional stresses. In recent conversations in Carinthia, the BZOE Mayor of Gmuend, Josef Jury, was stridently nationalist - even racist - and party campaign manager Stefan Petzner sought to describe the party as moving in a "liberal" direction. These weaknesses are made visible in many of the party's campaign posters, which show three party leaders -- each of whom is known to have different ideological views -- so as to be sure to appeal to all the party's factions. The party is relying largely on Haider's mantle to win the election -- Petzner agreed that the election would in large part be a memorial to Haider; many BZOE posters use language drawn from one of his most well-known speeches, though they avoid using Haider's image outright. ¶4. (C) With Haider no longer in the picture, all the other parties expect to gain some votes from the BZOE, which took 42.4% of the vote in 2004. Haider had built up the party (then the FPO) mainly by drawing working class voters from the SPO. Carinthian political scientist Kathrin Stainer-Haemmerle and the Political Affairs Editor of the main local daily (Kleine Zeitung) expect some of these voters to migrate back to the SPO (38.4% in 2004). The mayor of Wolfsberg, one of the state's larger cities, cautions however that SPO leader Reinhart Rohr's less than magnetic personality could cost the party support. He expects the BZOE to win; Stainer-Haemmerle on the other hand sees the SPO as possibly edging out the BZOE. Two other parties will also take some votes from the BZOE, observers agree. The FPO is contesting the election and is expected to take between 5 and 10 percent of the vote, enough to get into parliament. Nearly all the FPO's support will come from the BZOE. In addition, the conservatives are mounting a vigorous campaign and should improve their miserable 2004 showing (11.6%), again mostly at the expense of the BZOE. Issues? -- Being Carinthia Is the Issue -------------- ¶5. (C) BZOE officials, like Mayor Jury and Petzner, argue that the party is "above ideology" and others agree. To the VIENNA 00000228 002.2 OF 002 BZOE and its supporters, the party incorporates the (undefined) political spirit of the state. To others, having no solid position or definite program is essential to hold together a diverse crowd of Haider fans. Over the long term, OVP national parliament member Gabriel Obernosterer says, there is no political space in the Austrian political system for a party between the FPO and the OVP. Consequently, many in the BZOE are prepared to contemplate becoming a purely Carinthian party, along the lines of Bavaria's CSU. Obernosterer said he believed such a decision has been half-made and that the party will not run nationally in the June EU parliament elections. However, non-BZOE politicians and observers nearly all discounted this option over the long term -- because the FPO will not cede Carinthia and the party lacks the discipline and unity of the CSU. ¶6. (U) The lack of issues in the campaign is not that surprising, however. Austrian states have few autonomous powers and serve mainly as an intermediate distributive level of government (between the federal government and communes). Thus the FPO and SPO are also running campaigns based on public perceptions. The FPO is selling itself as the true and original home of Joerg Haider. The SPO seeks to capitalize on its personnel strength: over half the mayors in the state (all directly elected) are SPO members. Its website features a video with several mayors explaining why Carinthia should vote for Rohr and the SPO. The OVP is trying to capitalize on its image as better at economic management, but also heavily features its photogenic (and apparently relatively more charismatic) lead candidate, Josef Martinz. The Greens, who took 6.7% in 2004 are lagging but expected to return to parliament. Prognosis -------------- ¶7. (C) The race between BZOE and SPO is too close to call, but the greater threat is clearly to the BZOE. All our contacts expect it to lose votes in comparison with 2004. Many expect it to fall below 40% and party leader Doerfler has said he will resign if the party falls below 37-38%. Stainer-Haemmerle thought it could fall to 35. Putting all the forecasts together, it would seem difficult for the BZOE to win much above 35%, even if it still finishes ahead of the SPO. The stage will then be set for a fight over the governorship, with both SPO and BZOE trying to assemble the 19 votes needed in parliament to win the office. Should the BZOE lose that battle (which will also identify the de facto governing coalition),its political role could decline with dramatic swiftness. Moreover, the BZOE is not expected to win enough seats to enter the Salzburg state parliament when that state votes, also on March 1 (reftel). Expected to perform badly in the EU election (if it runs at all) and in fall elections in Upper Austria and Vorarlberg, all our non-BZOE contacts were unanimous in predicting the party would not survive until the next Carinthian election (2014), the most likely outcome being its reintegration into the FPO. Impact -------------- ¶8. (C) In September 2008 the two parties of the far-right captured over 28% of the national vote, and several percentage points can be attributed to Haider's personal standing and the presentation of the BZOE as the more responsible of the two. The two parties were able to draw voters from the mainstream by appealing to different groups -- the FPO drew SPO voters, the BZOE drew from the OVP. With Haider gone and the likely re-establishment of a single far-right party (the FPO, perhaps delayed in Carinthia),the far-right is unlikely to retain its appeal to nearly a third of Austrian voters. In particular, many BZOE voters could be expected to return to the OVP. As it is the most EU- and U.S.-friendly of Austria's parties, this would be a positive development from the American perspective. The March 1 election in Carinthia will not accomplish this, but could send a signal as to whether and how quickly it might happen. KILNER