UPPER AUSTRIAN ELECTIONS: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS COULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001220

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: UPPER AUSTRIAN ELECTIONS: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS COULD
SUFFER ANOTHER SETBACK

REF: A. VIENNA 1218

B. VIENNA 1171

Classified by: Economic-Political Counselor J. Dean Yap for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: The conservative People's Party (OVP) is
widely expected to retain first place in Upper Austria's
September 27 elections, fueled by the popularity of Governor
Josef Puehringer. The Social Democrats (SPO) will remain in
second place, but polls show the party's support dropping 3-8
points below the last state election in 2003. The rightwing,
nationalist Freedom Party (FPO) is expected to do well enough
to enter the state government, and could draw as much as
15-17 percent with its anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim campaign,
while the Greens, at about 9 percent, will struggle to retain
their place in the government. A major SPO setback in Upper
Austria, following the party's weak performance in the
September 20 vote in Vorarlberg (reftel A),could undermine
cooperation in the national SPO-OVP coalition. End Summary.

OVP To Retain Top Spot
--------------


2. (U) The OVP is widely expected to retain its first-place
position with 40-43 percent of the vote, about the same as in
the last state elections in 2003, enabling longtime Governor
Josef Puehringer to keep his seat. The OVP's low-key
campaign has a "stay the course" theme focused on
Puehringer's image as a popular leader. Rather than calling
for change or criticizing the other parties, OVP posters
feature Puehringer's image with slogans emphasizing
experience.


3. (U) Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer, OVP Assistant Party Manager,
averred to us that the OVP, in addition to having Upper
Austria's most popular politician, also benefits from the
global financial crisis. The Upper Austrian economy is
strong, and has weathered the crisis under OVP leadership
better than most of the other states, he said. Moreover, he
added, in times of economic uncertainty voters tend to tilt
toward the OVP, which is seen as the party most capable of
stimulating growth and creating jobs (Our SPO contact
acknowledged this point, while still predicting the OVP would
do worse than expected).

SPO Expected to Slide, But How Much?
--------------


4. (U) The SPO is expected to lose ground, though there are
varying predictions on the size of the setback. In 2003 the
SPO surged from 27 percent to 38 percent in the state,
boosted by public anger over the privatization program of the
federal OVP-FPO government at that time. This time, with the
SPO occupying the Chancellor's office, the party will not
benefit from protest votes.


5. (U) The SPO is waging an aggressive campaign aimed at the
OVP, which the SPO blames for fueling the financial crisis
and "selling out" the state's natural resources. The latter
point refers to programs enacted under OVP-led national and
state governments that partially privatized Upper Austria's
energy company and fully privatized the Voestalpine steel
company, leading to some job losses. OVP leaders point out
that the SPO voted in favor of the privatization of the
energy company.


6. (U) SPO state Party Manager Christian Denkmaier told us
many Upper Austrian voters are fed up with the OVP's economic
policies and are looking for a change after five decades of
OVP dominance in the state. He predicted that the SPO would
fare far better than expected, though he acknowledged that
the OVP was the favorite to win.


7. (U) Other observers, however, predicted SPO losses ranging
from 8 points to as few as 3. Werner Beutelmeyer, a pollster
with the Market Institute in Linz, told us the SPO's attacks
on privatization are not resonating with voters, who sense
the economy turning and are not interested in re-hashing an
issue from the last campaign.

FPO On the Rise
--------------


8. (U) Our contacts across the board agreed that Upper
Austria is a natural stronghold of the rightwing, nationalist
FPO. The state's Innviertal region, Adolf Hitler's
birthplace, borders on the German state of Bavaria, and there
are close ties between nationalists on both sides of the
border. The state is also home to a significant number of

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blue collar workers, who comprise an important portion of the
FPO voter base. The FPO, blamed for its role in the
privatization programs, suffered a debacle in 2003, declining
12 points to 8 percent. The party is now predicted to clear
the threshold required for entering the state government --
approximately 10 percent, but it varies depending on factors
such as voter turnout -- and to possibly draw up to 15-16
percent. (Note: "Cabinet" positions in the Upper Austrian
government are allocated according to a proportional system
based on parties' representation in the state legislature).



9. (C) Though the FPO's Upper Austria campaign is less
blatantly anti-Muslim than its Vorarlberg effort was (reftel
B),lead candidate Manfred Haimbuchner did not hesitate to
tell us that "integration and Islam" are the party's main
(and seemingly only) themes. Haimbuchner said Upper
Austrians are fed up with immigrants who receive social
benefits without becoming Austrian citizens, learning German,
or otherwise adapting to Austrian culture. The FPO wants to
require that immigrants prove they are studying German and
learning about Austrian history and culture before being
eligible for subsidized housing. The party also wants to
limit the proportion of immigrant children in school classes
to 25 percent; in districts where this is not possible
because the percentage is already far higher, students should
take special integration courses, Haimbuchner maintained. It
is for these types of views that the weekly magazine News
recently labeled Haimbuchner a "zero" in its "Heroes and
Zeros" feature.


10. (U) The Green Party is struggling to maintain its place
in the state government. Current polls place the Greens at
about 9 percent, just below the level needed to claim
positions in the government. The BZO, an FPO splinter party,
trails the pack with 2-4 percent in the polls, despite the
fact that its lead candidate, Ursula Haubner, is the sister
of the late Joerg Haider, the popular BZO Governor of
Carinthia who died in a car accident in 2008. The BZO may
well not clear the 4 percent threshold for entering the state
legislature.

Comment: Results Could Undermine Cooperation at National Level
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Chancellor Faymann has presided over a string of SPO
setbacks in state and EU elections. After the September 20
election debacle in Vorarlberg (reftel A),Faymann soundly
rejected calls from within his own party to adopt a more
confrontational approach toward the OVP, the SPO's junior
partner in the national government, in order to bolster the
party's social democratic image. Those calls will become
louder if the SPO suffers a major loss in Upper Austria. In
any case, the result will not topple the ruling coalition,
but it could undermine cooperation between the coalition
partners and slow GOA progress on efforts important to the
U.S.-Austria relationship.
EACHO