UPPER AUSTRIAN ELECTIONS: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS COULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001220 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AU SUBJECT: UPPER AUSTRIAN ELECTIONS: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS COULD SUFFER ANOTHER SETBACK REF: A. VIENNA 1218 ¶B. VIENNA 1171 Classified by: Economic-Political Counselor J. Dean Yap for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Summary: The conservative People's Party (OVP) is widely expected to retain first place in Upper Austria's September 27 elections, fueled by the popularity of Governor Josef Puehringer. The Social Democrats (SPO) will remain in second place, but polls show the party's support dropping 3-8 points below the last state election in 2003. The rightwing, nationalist Freedom Party (FPO) is expected to do well enough to enter the state government, and could draw as much as 15-17 percent with its anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim campaign, while the Greens, at about 9 percent, will struggle to retain their place in the government. A major SPO setback in Upper Austria, following the party's weak performance in the September 20 vote in Vorarlberg (reftel A),could undermine cooperation in the national SPO-OVP coalition. End Summary. OVP To Retain Top Spot -------------- ¶2. (U) The OVP is widely expected to retain its first-place position with 40-43 percent of the vote, about the same as in the last state elections in 2003, enabling longtime Governor Josef Puehringer to keep his seat. The OVP's low-key campaign has a "stay the course" theme focused on Puehringer's image as a popular leader. Rather than calling for change or criticizing the other parties, OVP posters feature Puehringer's image with slogans emphasizing experience. ¶3. (U) Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer, OVP Assistant Party Manager, averred to us that the OVP, in addition to having Upper Austria's most popular politician, also benefits from the global financial crisis. The Upper Austrian economy is strong, and has weathered the crisis under OVP leadership better than most of the other states, he said. Moreover, he added, in times of economic uncertainty voters tend to tilt toward the OVP, which is seen as the party most capable of stimulating growth and creating jobs (Our SPO contact acknowledged this point, while still predicting the OVP would do worse than expected). SPO Expected to Slide, But How Much? -------------- ¶4. (U) The SPO is expected to lose ground, though there are varying predictions on the size of the setback. In 2003 the SPO surged from 27 percent to 38 percent in the state, boosted by public anger over the privatization program of the federal OVP-FPO government at that time. This time, with the SPO occupying the Chancellor's office, the party will not benefit from protest votes. ¶5. (U) The SPO is waging an aggressive campaign aimed at the OVP, which the SPO blames for fueling the financial crisis and "selling out" the state's natural resources. The latter point refers to programs enacted under OVP-led national and state governments that partially privatized Upper Austria's energy company and fully privatized the Voestalpine steel company, leading to some job losses. OVP leaders point out that the SPO voted in favor of the privatization of the energy company. ¶6. (U) SPO state Party Manager Christian Denkmaier told us many Upper Austrian voters are fed up with the OVP's economic policies and are looking for a change after five decades of OVP dominance in the state. He predicted that the SPO would fare far better than expected, though he acknowledged that the OVP was the favorite to win. ¶7. (U) Other observers, however, predicted SPO losses ranging from 8 points to as few as 3. Werner Beutelmeyer, a pollster with the Market Institute in Linz, told us the SPO's attacks on privatization are not resonating with voters, who sense the economy turning and are not interested in re-hashing an issue from the last campaign. FPO On the Rise -------------- ¶8. (U) Our contacts across the board agreed that Upper Austria is a natural stronghold of the rightwing, nationalist FPO. The state's Innviertal region, Adolf Hitler's birthplace, borders on the German state of Bavaria, and there are close ties between nationalists on both sides of the border. The state is also home to a significant number of VIENNA 00001220 002 OF 002 blue collar workers, who comprise an important portion of the FPO voter base. The FPO, blamed for its role in the privatization programs, suffered a debacle in 2003, declining 12 points to 8 percent. The party is now predicted to clear the threshold required for entering the state government -- approximately 10 percent, but it varies depending on factors such as voter turnout -- and to possibly draw up to 15-16 percent. (Note: "Cabinet" positions in the Upper Austrian government are allocated according to a proportional system based on parties' representation in the state legislature). ¶9. (C) Though the FPO's Upper Austria campaign is less blatantly anti-Muslim than its Vorarlberg effort was (reftel B),lead candidate Manfred Haimbuchner did not hesitate to tell us that "integration and Islam" are the party's main (and seemingly only) themes. Haimbuchner said Upper Austrians are fed up with immigrants who receive social benefits without becoming Austrian citizens, learning German, or otherwise adapting to Austrian culture. The FPO wants to require that immigrants prove they are studying German and learning about Austrian history and culture before being eligible for subsidized housing. The party also wants to limit the proportion of immigrant children in school classes to 25 percent; in districts where this is not possible because the percentage is already far higher, students should take special integration courses, Haimbuchner maintained. It is for these types of views that the weekly magazine News recently labeled Haimbuchner a "zero" in its "Heroes and Zeros" feature. ¶10. (U) The Green Party is struggling to maintain its place in the state government. Current polls place the Greens at about 9 percent, just below the level needed to claim positions in the government. The BZO, an FPO splinter party, trails the pack with 2-4 percent in the polls, despite the fact that its lead candidate, Ursula Haubner, is the sister of the late Joerg Haider, the popular BZO Governor of Carinthia who died in a car accident in 2008. The BZO may well not clear the 4 percent threshold for entering the state legislature. Comment: Results Could Undermine Cooperation at National Level -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Chancellor Faymann has presided over a string of SPO setbacks in state and EU elections. After the September 20 election debacle in Vorarlberg (reftel A),Faymann soundly rejected calls from within his own party to adopt a more confrontational approach toward the OVP, the SPO's junior partner in the national government, in order to bolster the party's social democratic image. Those calls will become louder if the SPO suffers a major loss in Upper Austria. In any case, the result will not topple the ruling coalition, but it could undermine cooperation between the coalition partners and slow GOA progress on efforts important to the U.S.-Austria relationship. EACHO