CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT RE-ELECTED IN FAR-WEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001218

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2024
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT RE-ELECTED IN FAR-WEST
AUSTRIA, BUT FAR-RIGHT ALSO GAINS; SOCIAL DEMOCRATS BATTERED

REF: VIENNA 1171

Classified By: Econ/Pol Counselor Dean Yap. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary. On Sept. 20, voters in Austria's far-west
state of Vorarlberg returned the state government to the
hands of popular governor Herbert Sausgruber whose
conservative (OVP) party took nearly 51% of the vote,
providing the majority Sausgruber demanded if he were to stay
on. However, the electorate also nearly doubled the vote for
the right-populist Freedom Party (FPO),which took over 25%,
just two points shy of its 2009 record and 5% better than
polls had suggested. However, victory for the FPO comes at
the cost of office. Governor Sausgruber has reaffirmed that
he will not conduct coalition talks with the FPO because of
anti-Semitic statements by FPO leader Dieter Egger. The
clear losers were Austria's governing Social Democrats (SPO),
lost almost 40% of their vote (compared to 2004) and slipped
into fourth place in parliament, behind the Greens, who
remained stable. End Summary.

The Numbers
--------------


2. (U) 2009 2004
-- % of vote seats % of vote seats
OVP 50.8 20 54.9 21
FPO 25.3 9 12.9 5
Green 10.4 4 10.2 4
SPO 10.2 3 16.9 6

Voter turnout was high -- 67.4%, up from 60.6% in 2004.

OVP
--------------


3. (U) The popular, albeit narrow majority came as a pleasant
surprise for the OVP whose goal had been to hold onto a
majority of seats in the state parliament, which would have
been possible with as little as 47% of the vote. The vote is
being read as a personal triumph for Governor Sausgruber,
whose threat to quit is seen as having motivated many voters.
His popularity is suggested by preliminary analyses
suggesting that the SPO lost most of its voters to the OVE
(or to apathy),rather than to the FPO. Having rejected the
FPO, the Greens are the most likely coalition partner for the
OVP, should he decide to invite another party to join the
government.
FPO
---


4. (U) The greater than expected success has been trumpeted
by local and national FPO leaders. However, the dark liming
for the FPO is Sausgruber's decision to end the long-standing
coalition relationship with the party because of its leader's
anti-Semitic remarks during the election campaign. The FPO's
outcome also indicates that voters remain reluctant to admit
to pollsters that they intend to vote for the FPO. The FPO
appears to have gained votes largely by motivating previously
apathetic voters to come to the polls.

SPO and Greens
--------------


5. (U) The day's big loser, as acknowledged by both national
party Chairman and Chancellor Werner Faymann and Vorarlberg
party leader Michael Ritsch, who initially suggested he might
resign due to the poor result. After the state party
leadership gave him a vote of confidence on Sept. 21,
however, he blamed the national party's failure to develop a
clear position on integration/immigration for the debacle in
Vorarlberg. The Greens, on the other hand, will be quietly
celebrating their opportunity to join another Austrian
state-level government, though numerically the election was a
wash for them.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The Vorarlberg outcome will, though not dramatically
given the SPO's historic weakness there, contribute to Werner
Faymann's party management problems. Faymann has presided
over a string of SPO losses (in state and EU elections)
since his election as Chancellor. Worse news may be coming,
as the much more important state of Upper Austria holds
elections Sept. 27 (septel),in which the SPO looks set to do
poorly. The FPO's successes, even if not directly at the
expense of the SPO, will be a concern for SPO mid-level
politicians planning state elections in 2010 in Burgenland,
Styria, and Vienna, Indeed, in Vienna, the FPO has been
putting up campaign-style posters for months in traditionally
SPO neighborhoods that explicitly target the SPO and Mayor

VIENNA 00001218 002 OF 002


Haeupl. End Comment.
EACHO