AUSTRIA'S FAR-WEST GOES TO THE POLLS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001171

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2024
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIA'S FAR-WEST GOES TO THE POLLS:
CONSERVATIVES WILL WIN, BUT RUNNING SCARED; MUSLIM
INTEGRATION MAJOR ISSUE

Classified By: Econ/Pol Counselor Dean Yap. Reason: 1.4(d).


1. (U) Summary. Though they will certainly emerge as the
largest party by a wide margin after the September 20 state
poll, the conservatives (OVP) in Austria's small, westernmost
state of Vorarlberg are running scared of losing their
absolute majority in the state parliament and, thereby, their
popular leader and state governor, Herbert Sausgruber. The
right-populist FPO, on the basis of a nationalistic,
anti-Muslim campaign, will pick up significant numbers of
votes at the expense of all parties except the Greens, who in
turn hope to use OVP unhappiness with the FPO to replace them
as junior partner in a coalition government. The FPO has a
chance for a comeback, though, especially if Sausgruber does
quit the governorship. The Social Democrats (SPO) look set
to lose support, and an incident in the campaign has
highlighted SPO internal disputes and the weakness of SPO
Chancellor Faymann within the party. The failure of the OVP
and SPO to engage in the discussion on integration hurts both
them and the process of integration itself. End Summary.

FPO Dominating the Campaign Trail
--------------


2. (U) The FPO's nationalistic -- to include anti-Turk and
anti-Muslim sloganeering -- election campaign has made it the
center of media attention. Other parties privately and some
media outlets publicly decry the party's new (for the state)
tone and its use of the same Swiss PR firm that ran Swiss
rightist Christoph Blocher's overtly anti-immigrant election
campaign in 2007. Still, the party appears likely to boost
its vote from 13% in 2004 to as much as 20% (still below
their 1999 record of 27%). Only when FPO leader Dieter Egger
referred to the Director of a local Jewish history museum as
an "exile Jew from America" did other parties take issue
openly with the FPO -- they had studiously ignored posters
and statements critical of Turks and Muslims.

OVP on the Defensive
--------------


3. (C) Despite an excellent government record, the OVP may
well lose its absolute majority in the parliament, with polls
giving them between 44% and 51%. Seeking to use his own
personal popularity (acknowledged by all other parties) to
get out the vote, Governor Sausgruber has said he will retire
should the party not get at least half the seats in the
legislature. Sausgruber was also quick to jump on the FPO
after Egger's "exile Jew" remark, asserting that he would not
form a coalition with the FPO after the election. (Even when
it could have ruled alone, the Vorarlberg OVP has
traditionally formed a coalition government with the FPO.)
However, party strategist Dietmar Wetz made clear in a
conversation with RO that Sausgruber's statement was personal
(i.e., would not apply to the OVP should Sausgruber quit) and
that the willingness of the FPO to apologize post-election
would also be a factor in OVP thinking.

Greens See an Opportunity
--------------


4. (C) The fallout between OVP and FPO has opened a window
for Vorarlberg's rather conservative Greens. The party's
rather uncharismatic leader, Johannes Rauch, told RO that his
goal was to form a coalition with the OVP, noting that in the
state capital (Bregenz),an OVP-Green coalition had been very
successful. The Greens have been the only party to challenge
FPO anti-immigrant rhetoric and -- because of the stark
ideological differences with the FPO -- seem likely to retain
or slightly improve on their 10% take in 2004. The OVP will
certainly talk to the Greens and, if the OVP retains a
majority in the parliament, they would be a more likely
coalition partner for the OVP under Sausgruber than would the
FPO.

SPO Floundering
--------------


5. (C) The SPO has always been weak in Vorarlberg, and with
the FPO eating into its working class base with its
nationalistic appeal, looks likely to lose a few of the 17%
percentage points it took in 2004, falling back behind the
FPO. The SPO is the least likely junior partner for the OVP,
a point acknowledged by SPO leader Michael Ritsch and
stressed by conservatives, including Wetz and Bregenz Mayor
Markus Linhart -- who note the bad personal relationship
between Ritsch and Sausgruber as a factor.


6. (C) The "exile Jew" incident has caused ripples in
national SPO politics. SPO leader and Chancellor Faymann
publicly sought to impose a non-cooperation with the FPO line

VIENNA 00001171 002 OF 002


on the party in the wake of Eggers remark. Faymann was
forced to make a public rereat a few days later after
state-level party leders rebelled, announcing that decisions
on coopration with the FPO would be made on a state-by-stte
asis.

Campaign Undercuts Integration
--------------


7. (U) Vorarlberg an its cities have extensive and
successful integrtion programs; the FPO itself has worked
with th OVP to establish many of these. The FPO has chosn
to ignore this reality and assert that Muslims are unwilling
to integrate and pose an undefined threat to the state. When
challenged as to why the OVP does not refute such claims with
the facts, party strategist Wetz cited anecdotes of clashes
between Turkish-origin and non-Turkish youths, of cases of
violations of women's rights, and of an unwillingness to
integrate. Accepting many of the FPO's premises, it is
unsurprising that he and the OVP believe that, if they were
to challenge the FPO, the FPO itself would be the beneficiary
of the controversy. The FPO would become, Wetz asserted, the
largest party in Vorarlberg.


8. (C) Needless to say, this attitude has embittered many
local Muslims and dismayed people like Elizabeth Planinger,
Integration Affairs Director for the state's largest city,
Dornbirn. Planinger notes that German language courses are
routinely oversubscribed, that immigrant women turn out in
large numbers for school-based programs, and that she
receives strong support from all the immigrant and Muslim
associations active in the city. She acknowledges that
clashes between youth are a problem, but notes that conflicts
between adolescents are common in all cultures. Abdi
Tasdoeegen, the chief of Islamic religious education for the
state, is critical of the government for failing to get the
facts out and concerned that the state Interior Minister
(responsible for public safety) is in charge of integration
affairs -- signaling to the immigrant Muslim community that
the state considers them a threat. At least some business
leaders also take issue with how Vorarlberg's leaders have
handled the FPO. Egon Blum, a former CEO and also federal
Commissioner for vocational education, told RO that a "lack
of enlightenment" among youth was the major problem, easily
exploited by the FPO to heighten tensions. None of the
parties have a long range vision for managing integration,
Blum asserted, though he did believe that Herbert Sausgruber
personally had "a long-term perspective."

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The OVP's and SPO's unwillingness to confront the FPO
on immigrant issues is typical for Austria -- we saw the same
pattern in the spring elections for the EU parliament. By
leaving the public debate in the hands of the FPO they not
only, in our view, damage the prospects for integration, but
also hurt themselves in the larger electoral competition by
failing to engage in a debate on a major national issue. The
argument that responding to the FPO would only exacerbate the
debate to the advantage of the FPO ignores the fact that the
media highlight the story anyway and suggests they believe
that voters' true sympathies lie with the nationalists. End
Comment.
EACHO