AUSTRIA'S FAR-WEST GOES TO THE POLLS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001171 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2024 TAGS: PGOV AU SUBJECT: AUSTRIA'S FAR-WEST GOES TO THE POLLS: CONSERVATIVES WILL WIN, BUT RUNNING SCARED; MUSLIM INTEGRATION MAJOR ISSUE Classified By: Econ/Pol Counselor Dean Yap. Reason: 1.4(d). ¶1. (U) Summary. Though they will certainly emerge as the largest party by a wide margin after the September 20 state poll, the conservatives (OVP) in Austria's small, westernmost state of Vorarlberg are running scared of losing their absolute majority in the state parliament and, thereby, their popular leader and state governor, Herbert Sausgruber. The right-populist FPO, on the basis of a nationalistic, anti-Muslim campaign, will pick up significant numbers of votes at the expense of all parties except the Greens, who in turn hope to use OVP unhappiness with the FPO to replace them as junior partner in a coalition government. The FPO has a chance for a comeback, though, especially if Sausgruber does quit the governorship. The Social Democrats (SPO) look set to lose support, and an incident in the campaign has highlighted SPO internal disputes and the weakness of SPO Chancellor Faymann within the party. The failure of the OVP and SPO to engage in the discussion on integration hurts both them and the process of integration itself. End Summary. FPO Dominating the Campaign Trail -------------- ¶2. (U) The FPO's nationalistic -- to include anti-Turk and anti-Muslim sloganeering -- election campaign has made it the center of media attention. Other parties privately and some media outlets publicly decry the party's new (for the state) tone and its use of the same Swiss PR firm that ran Swiss rightist Christoph Blocher's overtly anti-immigrant election campaign in 2007. Still, the party appears likely to boost its vote from 13% in 2004 to as much as 20% (still below their 1999 record of 27%). Only when FPO leader Dieter Egger referred to the Director of a local Jewish history museum as an "exile Jew from America" did other parties take issue openly with the FPO -- they had studiously ignored posters and statements critical of Turks and Muslims. OVP on the Defensive -------------- ¶3. (C) Despite an excellent government record, the OVP may well lose its absolute majority in the parliament, with polls giving them between 44% and 51%. Seeking to use his own personal popularity (acknowledged by all other parties) to get out the vote, Governor Sausgruber has said he will retire should the party not get at least half the seats in the legislature. Sausgruber was also quick to jump on the FPO after Egger's "exile Jew" remark, asserting that he would not form a coalition with the FPO after the election. (Even when it could have ruled alone, the Vorarlberg OVP has traditionally formed a coalition government with the FPO.) However, party strategist Dietmar Wetz made clear in a conversation with RO that Sausgruber's statement was personal (i.e., would not apply to the OVP should Sausgruber quit) and that the willingness of the FPO to apologize post-election would also be a factor in OVP thinking. Greens See an Opportunity -------------- ¶4. (C) The fallout between OVP and FPO has opened a window for Vorarlberg's rather conservative Greens. The party's rather uncharismatic leader, Johannes Rauch, told RO that his goal was to form a coalition with the OVP, noting that in the state capital (Bregenz),an OVP-Green coalition had been very successful. The Greens have been the only party to challenge FPO anti-immigrant rhetoric and -- because of the stark ideological differences with the FPO -- seem likely to retain or slightly improve on their 10% take in 2004. The OVP will certainly talk to the Greens and, if the OVP retains a majority in the parliament, they would be a more likely coalition partner for the OVP under Sausgruber than would the FPO. SPO Floundering -------------- ¶5. (C) The SPO has always been weak in Vorarlberg, and with the FPO eating into its working class base with its nationalistic appeal, looks likely to lose a few of the 17% percentage points it took in 2004, falling back behind the FPO. The SPO is the least likely junior partner for the OVP, a point acknowledged by SPO leader Michael Ritsch and stressed by conservatives, including Wetz and Bregenz Mayor Markus Linhart -- who note the bad personal relationship between Ritsch and Sausgruber as a factor. ¶6. (C) The "exile Jew" incident has caused ripples in national SPO politics. SPO leader and Chancellor Faymann publicly sought to impose a non-cooperation with the FPO line VIENNA 00001171 002 OF 002 on the party in the wake of Eggers remark. Faymann was forced to make a public rereat a few days later after state-level party leders rebelled, announcing that decisions on coopration with the FPO would be made on a state-by-stte asis. Campaign Undercuts Integration -------------- ¶7. (U) Vorarlberg an its cities have extensive and successful integrtion programs; the FPO itself has worked with th OVP to establish many of these. The FPO has chosn to ignore this reality and assert that Muslims are unwilling to integrate and pose an undefined threat to the state. When challenged as to why the OVP does not refute such claims with the facts, party strategist Wetz cited anecdotes of clashes between Turkish-origin and non-Turkish youths, of cases of violations of women's rights, and of an unwillingness to integrate. Accepting many of the FPO's premises, it is unsurprising that he and the OVP believe that, if they were to challenge the FPO, the FPO itself would be the beneficiary of the controversy. The FPO would become, Wetz asserted, the largest party in Vorarlberg. ¶8. (C) Needless to say, this attitude has embittered many local Muslims and dismayed people like Elizabeth Planinger, Integration Affairs Director for the state's largest city, Dornbirn. Planinger notes that German language courses are routinely oversubscribed, that immigrant women turn out in large numbers for school-based programs, and that she receives strong support from all the immigrant and Muslim associations active in the city. She acknowledges that clashes between youth are a problem, but notes that conflicts between adolescents are common in all cultures. Abdi Tasdoeegen, the chief of Islamic religious education for the state, is critical of the government for failing to get the facts out and concerned that the state Interior Minister (responsible for public safety) is in charge of integration affairs -- signaling to the immigrant Muslim community that the state considers them a threat. At least some business leaders also take issue with how Vorarlberg's leaders have handled the FPO. Egon Blum, a former CEO and also federal Commissioner for vocational education, told RO that a "lack of enlightenment" among youth was the major problem, easily exploited by the FPO to heighten tensions. None of the parties have a long range vision for managing integration, Blum asserted, though he did believe that Herbert Sausgruber personally had "a long-term perspective." Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The OVP's and SPO's unwillingness to confront the FPO on immigrant issues is typical for Austria -- we saw the same pattern in the spring elections for the EU parliament. By leaving the public debate in the hands of the FPO they not only, in our view, damage the prospects for integration, but also hurt themselves in the larger electoral competition by failing to engage in a debate on a major national issue. The argument that responding to the FPO would only exacerbate the debate to the advantage of the FPO ignores the fact that the media highlight the story anyway and suggests they believe that voters' true sympathies lie with the nationalists. End Comment. EACHO