UKRAINIAN AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN ABOUT NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000940 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019 TAGS: PARM PNUC PGOV UP RS SUBJECT: UKRAINIAN AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN ABOUT NEW RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE Classified By: Ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d ). ¶1. (C) Summary. Ukrainian PR Sergeyev told Ambassador Wolff on 21 October of Ukraine's concern about an impending change in Russian policy on preemptive nuclear strikes contained in a review of Russia's nuclear doctrine. According to Sergeyev, the draft text states that Russia reserves the right to pursue a preemptive nuclear strike, contrasting with the previous policy that supported the use of nuclear weapons only as a means of self-defense. Ambassador Sergeyev indicated that he was meeting with other UN counterparts in order to share these "very serious developments." End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador Wolff on 21 October met with Ukrainian PR Yuriy Sergeyev at the Ukrainian's request. Sergeyev indicated that two new Russian military-related texts had been discussed at a regularly scheduled COM Conference in Kyiv last week. One was a draft bill about changes in Russian Federal law on defense issues and the second was a "new military doctrine" currently being finalized. Ukraine believes that the second part of this draft document constitutes a significant change in Russian policy and a new "aggressive approach" authorizing the use of nuclear force to protect "Russian interests." ¶3. (C) Sergeyev expressed concern regarding specific language about instability on Russia's borders as a possible trigger and pointed to a statement about new military policy made by Nikolai Patrushev, Russia's National Security Advisor. In the Ukrainians' view, these statements indicated that Russia would consider launching preemptive nuclear strikes. Sergeyev underlined that this alleged new doctrine not only posed a threat to border states, such as Ukraine and Moldova, but also altered the current balance with other world nuclear powers and potentially challenged them to follow suit and alter their current defensive nuclear posture. ¶4. (C) Sergeyev lamented that there are slogans sprouting up in Kyiv suggesting that Russia is preparing a nuclear war against Ukraine. He observed that the current situation reminded him of the 1960s when Khruschev intensified the Cold War. Sergeyev also pointed out that while Ukraine adheres to the 1994 Budapest Protocol, this perceived change in Russia's military doctrine could imply "new circumstances." ¶5. (C) Sergeyev also expressed concern about the Russian "passportization" of people in Abkhazia before the Russian invasion of Georgia. That action and recent Russian mention of "protecting Russian citizens abroad" has spurred the GOU to think more about the sizeable Russian population in Ukraine. In fact, two years ago, Kyiv realized that there was some "manipulation of passports" in Ukraine. ¶6. (C) Sergeyev also commented that President Medvedev declined to meet with the Ukrainian President and Prime Minister at the United Nations in September, reportedly to await political changes in Ukraine. Sergeyev added that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Poroshenko plans to address these concerns in Moscow on October 23rd. ¶7. (C) Ambassador Wolff suggested that Ukraine pursue its concerns and analysis of these "core security issues" in Washington at both the State and Defense Departments in order to peel away what is bluster from real. Ambassador Wolff assured Ambassador Sergeyev that he would alert Washington to Ukraine's concerns. Wolff