AU COMMISSIONER LAMAMRA STRATEGIZES ON SOMALIA,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000743

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF, IO, FM, USUN/W

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM MARR MOPS KPKO UNSC SO ER
SUBJECT: AU COMMISSIONER LAMAMRA STRATEGIZES ON SOMALIA,
HOLDS OUT HOPE FOR ERITREA

USUN NEW Y 00000743 001.2 OF 002


1.(SBU) SUMMARY. During a July 30 meeting with Ambassador
Rice, AU Commissioner Lamamra said that there is no
imminent threat to the TFG, but called for international
efforts to assist the TFG in taking back
critical pieces of territory and establishing a secure
zone of operations. Lamamra discussed plans to hold a
special AU Summit on conflict mitigation in Libya on August
31, adding that the U.S. would be invited to "actively
observe." He said plans for a second AU Summit on
stability and "good neighborliness" in the Horn of Africa
were advancing and that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki
would be invited. Finally, Lamamra is taking a
wait-and-see approach to stability in Niger, stating that
the outcome of the August 4 referendum will be critical.
END SUMMARY.

Lamamra Thinks Creatively on Somalia
--------------


2. (SBU) In a July 30 meeting with Ambassador Rice, AU
Commissioner for Peace and Security Ramtane Lamamra said
that there is no imminent threat to the Transitional
Federal Government (TFG),and that the "ping pong game"
over districts between the TFG and al-Shaabab will endure
for the foreseeable future. Lamamra urged consideration of
an ad-hoc military operation to take back Kismayo (the
insurgents' spiritual center and site of an important
seaport)
as critical to stabilizing the country. Stating that, "the
battle for Mogadishu can be won outside of Mogadishu,"
Lamamra described an idea of organizing a coalition of
foreign forces (mentioning Djibouti, Angola and Egypt),
along with the Somali Security forces and AMISOM, to take
back the port city. He explained that if al-Shaabab
understood that Kismayo was endangered, they would
"loosen up" on Mogadishu, which would allow the TFG an
opening to gain control. He said that conversations with
Angola and Egypt about providing troops to the proposed
mission were going well. Lamamra noted that AMISOM has
full authority to use its troops in support of Somali
transitional institutions, and the protection of Kismayo
would fall into this provision. In response to Ambassador
Rice's question about how the city and port would be held
after it
is recaptured, Lamamra said that a naval blockade would
likely be required to keep the insurgents from returning.


3. (SBU) Thinking creatively, Lamamra proposed the
establishment of a "blue zone on the sea" (akin to Baghdad's
"Green Zone") off of Somalia's coast that would be a safe
area
for ships holding government offices, a hospital, and
international
organizations. This, he stated, would allow the
international community to operate safely out of the range
of insurgent groups but be present in Mogadishu.

One More Chance for Eritrea
--------------


4. (SBU) Lamamra said AU thought was being given to
holding a special AU Summit in Libya on "stability,
security and good neighborliness in the Horn of Africa."
He said that although Eritrea would, "like to start over
from square one" on the Djibouti Peace Process, the AU would
likely invite Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to the Summit
and
attempt to create a format that will persuade Eritrea to
cooperate. Lamamra will ask Libyan President Gaddafi to
encourage Isaias to attend the summit, but admitted that,
"if Eritrea does not help itself, we cannot help."
Ambassador Rice questioned the contrast between the AU's
recent
call for sanctions against Eritrea and this new idea to
make overtures to Isaias.


5. (SBU) Lamamra also noted plans for a special August 31
African Union Summit devoted to conflict mitigation. He
said that the Summit will focus on the Horn of Africa,
including Sudan, Chad, the Great Lakes region and
Guinea-Bissau. He said that the U.S. would be invited to
"actively observe." Ambassador Rice encouraged Lamamra to
focus also on Cote d'Ivoire, which is in need of
international attention.

AU Thoughts on Niger
--------------

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6. (C) Asked by Ambassador Rice for his assessment of the
situation in Niger, Lamamra stated that it will become
clear with the August 4 resolution whether there will be an
"immediate disaster" or not. Lamara stated that the
leadership in Niger told ECOWAS that what it has done in
Niger is consistent with the will of the people and that
the likelihood of a coup d'etat will depend on the
referendum's outcome.
RICE