U/SYG LE ROY BRIEFS COUNCIL ON UNMIS

UNCLAS USUN NEW YORK 000702 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SU AF SUBJECT: U/SYG LE ROY BRIEFS COUNCIL ON UNMIS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On July 17, the Security Council held consultations on the Secretary General's quarterly report on the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS). U/SYG Le Roy briefed the Council on the upcoming decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) regarding the Abyei boundary dispute, expected on July 22, and the potential for ensuing violence. Stressing that security is primarily the responsibility of the parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),Le Roy detailed UNMIS,s contingency plans. Le Roy also discussed the parties, lack of preparation for 2010 elections and failure to engage in a political dialogue to prepare for the 2011 referendum. Council discussions focused on Abyei, elections, increasing violence in Southern Sudan, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) efforts, incursions by the Lord,s Resistance Army in the south, and the March 4 expulsion of non-governmental organizations. No reference was made to the International Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of Bashir. End Summary. Le Roy Focuses on Abyei -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On July 17, the Under Secretary General for the Department of Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy briefed the Council in closed consultations on the Secretary General's July 14 UNMIS report. Le Roy focused on what he characterized as the most urgent issue in Sudan ) the PCA decision on the Abyei boundary dispute, expected on July 22. Le Roy emphasized that both the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People,s Liberation Movement (SPLM) had pledged to respect the decision, but that NCP officials had said they could not control the reactions of the Miseriya, whose grazing and water rights could be affected because their migration routes are within the disputed territory. Le Roy also said that if Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudanese People,s Liberation Army (SPLA) move into the disputed territory, the situation would quickly get out of control, with Joint Integrated Units (JIU) and Joint Integrated Police Units (JIPU) drawn into conflict. ¶3. (SBU) Given the potential for violence, Le Roy said that UNMIS had increased the number of troops in the Abyei area to 783 people, and that fourteen Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) also would be available. Le Roy noted that UNMIS troops in Juba and elsewhere had been placed on alert and humanitarian stocks had been increased. Le Roy said that UNMIS had learned valuable lessons from the Abyei violence that erupted in May 2008 and would do its utmost to dissuade violence and ensure humanitarian access. However, Le Roy pointed out that the UNMIS mandate is chiefly a Chapter 6 mandate, and that UNMIS troops have limited capacity to perform UNMIS,s Chapter 7 mandate to protect civilians. Ultimately, Le Roy said that UNMIS,s ability to protect civilians will depend on the parties, commitment to maintain order. Le Roy Discusses Other CPA Issues -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Le Roy returned from travel to Sudan on July 15 and said that he was concerned with the complete lack of confidence he had observed between the two parties to the CPA ) the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People,s Liberation Movement (SPLM). He said that some southerners had indicated an intention to unilaterally declare independence, but he noted that the South is facing a severe budget crisis and is ill-prepared for independence. Le Roy said that he had conveyed to both parties that they must discuss post-referendum issues at the same time they prepare to hold the 2011 referendum. Le Roy also stressed that the international community must fully engage in the process, and he praised the U.S. for hosting the Forum for Supporters of CPA Implementation to focus global attention on critical outstanding implementation issues. ¶5. (SBU) Le Roy also discussed elections difficulties, observing that the Darfuris with whom he met indicated that they would not participate in elections absent a peace agreement. Additionally, Le Roy stated that internally displaced persons (IDPs) are concerned that they will not be able to register to vote because they lack requisite documentation, and he noted that the SPLM continued to reject the census results that determine the allocation of representation within the legislature. Le Roy also said that the National Elections Commission (NEC) had not yet developed a comprehensive operational plan and budget and that major donors continued to wait for this plan before committing to elections contributions. Council Deliberations -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Ambassador DiCarlo expressed concern for the volatile situation in Abyei and reiterated that the U.S. expects both parties to peacefully implement the PCA decision. DiCarlo said that Special Envoy Gration would be in Abyei on July 22, when the decision is expected to be announced. She expressed concern with increasing tribal violence in the south and urged better cooperation between UNMIS and the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC) regarding the increasing attacks by the LRA in Southern Sudan. DiCarlo also said that the U.S. is concerned with the NEC,s failure to develop a budget for elections and a voter registration plan, but noted that the U.S. continues to provide elections assistance and to urge the parties to complete the tasks necessary to ensure credible elections. ¶7. (SBU) The interventions of France and the UK echoed Ambassador DiCarlo,s remarks, and additionally welcomed the SYG,s inclusion of benchmarks in the July 14 report. China urged the parties to respect the PCA decision on the Abyei border and said that the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) must consolidate inter-tribal conflict mechanisms to quell violence in the south. Uganda questioned whether outside forces were responsible for inciting inter-tribal conflict and characterized the census dispute as a "ticking time bomb" that could explode, destabilizing the region. Russia, Turkey, Austria and Uganda lamented the parties, failure to make unity an attractive option for the upcoming 2011 referendum. Japan discussed the need to strengthen coordination between the UN and donors for predictable and sustainable support to the DDR process. Libya stressed the achievements of the CPA, noting that 120,000 IDPs had returned and that 325,000 refugees from neighboring countries had also returned to Southern Sudan. Mexico, Costa Rica, Croatia and France also expressed concern that the March 4 expulsion of NGOs continued to have repercussions in southern Sudan. Le Roy Responds -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Le Roy responded to Uganda,s question about external factors contributing to inter-tribal violence by noting that while the SPLA had indicated that the NCP instigated this violence, the NCP had not yet responded to this allegation. Le Roy said that property and grazing rights, a population that is well-armed and frustration with the economic situation clearly were contributing factors to the violence. With regard to making unity attractive, Le Roy said that there had been little investment by the north in the south, and while the UN continued to urge the parties to make unity attractive, there was little political will to do so. On elections, Le Roy said that the international community must press the parties to adhere to the April 2010 date for elections. Le Roy said that if this date slips, the rainy season will have started and to postpone elections to the end of the year would place them too close to the 2011 referendum. RICE