U/SYG LE ROY BRIEFS COUNCIL ON UNMIS

UNCLAS USUN NEW YORK 000702

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SU AF
SUBJECT: U/SYG LE ROY BRIEFS COUNCIL ON UNMIS


1. (SBU) Summary: On July 17, the Security Council held
consultations on the Secretary General's quarterly report on
the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS). U/SYG Le Roy
briefed the Council on the upcoming decision of the Permanent
Court of Arbitration (PCA) regarding the Abyei boundary
dispute, expected on July 22, and the potential for ensuing
violence. Stressing that security is primarily the
responsibility of the parties to the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA),Le Roy detailed UNMIS,s contingency plans.
Le Roy also discussed the parties, lack of preparation for
2010 elections and failure to engage in a political dialogue
to prepare for the 2011 referendum. Council discussions
focused on Abyei, elections, increasing violence in Southern
Sudan, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR)
efforts, incursions by the Lord,s Resistance Army in the
south, and the March 4 expulsion of non-governmental
organizations. No reference was made to the International
Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of Bashir. End Summary.

Le Roy Focuses on Abyei
--------------


2. (SBU) On July 17, the Under Secretary General for the
Department of Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy briefed
the Council in closed consultations on the Secretary
General's July 14 UNMIS report. Le Roy focused on what he
characterized as the most urgent issue in Sudan ) the PCA
decision on the Abyei boundary dispute, expected on July 22.
Le Roy emphasized that both the National Congress Party (NCP)
and the Sudan People,s Liberation Movement (SPLM) had
pledged to respect the decision, but that NCP officials had
said they could not control the reactions of the Miseriya,
whose grazing and water rights could be affected because
their migration routes are within the disputed territory. Le
Roy also said that if Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the
Sudanese People,s Liberation Army (SPLA) move into the
disputed territory, the situation would quickly get out of
control, with Joint Integrated Units (JIU) and Joint
Integrated Police Units (JIPU) drawn into conflict.


3. (SBU) Given the potential for violence, Le Roy said that
UNMIS had increased the number of troops in the Abyei area to
783 people, and that fourteen Armored Personnel Carriers
(APCs) also would be available. Le Roy noted that UNMIS
troops in Juba and elsewhere had been placed on alert and
humanitarian stocks had been increased. Le Roy said that
UNMIS had learned valuable lessons from the Abyei violence
that erupted in May 2008 and would do its utmost to dissuade
violence and ensure humanitarian access. However, Le Roy
pointed out that the UNMIS mandate is chiefly a Chapter 6
mandate, and that UNMIS troops have limited capacity to
perform UNMIS,s Chapter 7 mandate to protect civilians.
Ultimately, Le Roy said that UNMIS,s ability to protect
civilians will depend on the parties, commitment to maintain
order.

Le Roy Discusses Other CPA Issues
--------------


4. (SBU) Le Roy returned from travel to Sudan on July 15 and
said that he was concerned with the complete lack of
confidence he had observed between the two parties to the CPA
) the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People,s
Liberation Movement (SPLM). He said that some southerners
had indicated an intention to unilaterally declare
independence, but he noted that the South is facing a severe
budget crisis and is ill-prepared for independence. Le Roy
said that he had conveyed to both parties that they must
discuss post-referendum issues at the same time they prepare
to hold the 2011 referendum. Le Roy also stressed that the
international community must fully engage in the process, and
he praised the U.S. for hosting the Forum for Supporters of
CPA Implementation to focus global attention on critical
outstanding implementation issues.


5. (SBU) Le Roy also discussed elections difficulties,
observing that the Darfuris with whom he met indicated that
they would not participate in elections absent a peace
agreement. Additionally, Le Roy stated that internally
displaced persons (IDPs) are concerned that they will not be
able to register to vote because they lack requisite
documentation, and he noted that the SPLM continued to reject
the census results that determine the allocation of
representation within the legislature. Le Roy also said that
the National Elections Commission (NEC) had not yet developed
a comprehensive operational plan and budget and that major
donors continued to wait for this plan before committing to
elections contributions.

Council Deliberations
--------------



6. (SBU) Ambassador DiCarlo expressed concern for the
volatile situation in Abyei and reiterated that the U.S.
expects both parties to peacefully implement the PCA
decision. DiCarlo said that Special Envoy Gration would be
in Abyei on July 22, when the decision is expected to be
announced. She expressed concern with increasing tribal
violence in the south and urged better cooperation between
UNMIS and the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of the
Congo (MONUC) regarding the increasing attacks by the LRA in
Southern Sudan. DiCarlo also said that the U.S. is concerned
with the NEC,s failure to develop a budget for elections and
a voter registration plan, but noted that the U.S. continues
to provide elections assistance and to urge the parties to
complete the tasks necessary to ensure credible elections.


7. (SBU) The interventions of France and the UK echoed
Ambassador DiCarlo,s remarks, and additionally welcomed the
SYG,s inclusion of benchmarks in the July 14 report. China
urged the parties to respect the PCA decision on the Abyei
border and said that the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS)
must consolidate inter-tribal conflict mechanisms to quell
violence in the south. Uganda questioned whether outside
forces were responsible for inciting inter-tribal conflict
and characterized the census dispute as a "ticking time bomb"
that could explode, destabilizing the region. Russia, Turkey,
Austria and Uganda lamented the parties, failure to make
unity an attractive option for the upcoming 2011 referendum.
Japan discussed the need to strengthen coordination between
the UN and donors for predictable and sustainable support to
the DDR process. Libya stressed the achievements of the CPA,
noting that 120,000 IDPs had returned and that 325,000
refugees from neighboring countries had also returned to
Southern Sudan. Mexico, Costa Rica, Croatia and France also
expressed concern that the March 4 expulsion of NGOs
continued to have repercussions in southern Sudan.

Le Roy Responds
--------------


8. (SBU) Le Roy responded to Uganda,s question about
external factors contributing to inter-tribal violence by
noting that while the SPLA had indicated that the NCP
instigated this violence, the NCP had not yet responded to
this allegation. Le Roy said that property and grazing
rights, a population that is well-armed and frustration with
the economic situation clearly were contributing factors to
the violence. With regard to making unity attractive, Le Roy
said that there had been little investment by the north in
the south, and while the UN continued to urge the parties to
make unity attractive, there was little political will to do
so. On elections, Le Roy said that the international
community must press the parties to adhere to the April 2010
date for elections. Le Roy said that if this date slips, the
rainy season will have started and to postpone elections to
the end of the year would place them too close to the 2011
referendum.
RICE