U/SYG LE ROY DISCUSSES ICC INDICTMENT WITH P-3

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000043

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019
TAGS: PREL UNSC PHUM SU FR UK
SUBJECT: U/SYG LE ROY DISCUSSES ICC INDICTMENT WITH P-3

REF: LONDON 000157

Classified By: Ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: U/SYG Le Roy met with UK-France-U.S. (P-3)
ambassadors on January 21 to discuss the International
Criminal Court's (ICC) pending decision to issue an arrest
warrant against Sudanese President Bashir. The P-3
ambassadors confirmed that their countries' positions on
Article 16 had not changed and stressed the need for close
coordination between the UN and P-3 in the aftermath of the
ICC decision. They also discussed the effect an indictment
could have on Bashir's hold on power and the potential effect
on the peace process, as well as how official contact with
Bashir should be handled after the ICC issues its decision.
Le Roy highlighted UN concern over potential violence. End
Summary.

U/SYG Le Roy calls P-3 Meeting
--------------


2. (C) UN Under Secretary General for the Department of
Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy convened a meeting with
P-3 Ambassadors Jean-Maurice Ripert, John Sawers, and
Rosemary DiCarlo to discuss UN concerns with potential
violence in Sudan that could occur in the aftermath of the
ICC decision and to solicit P-3 views. U/SYG Le Roy
described recent fighting in Southern Darfur around
Muhajiryah between rebel groups Justice and Equality Movement
(JEM) and Sudan Liberation Army/Minni Minawi (SLA/MM) and
noted that janjaweed forces have been reinforced in Western
Darfur around El Geneina. Le Roy said that if violence
occurs between JEM and the janjaweed, it would spiral out of
control quickly. P-3 ambassadors agreed that no one can
accurately predict what the reaction will be on the ground to
the ICC decision, and the UN must be prepared for the worst.
However, P-3 ambassadors indicated that resulting violence
likely would be sporadic as opposed to GOS organized attacks
on UN installations. Sawers said that Mark Malloch Brown
would attend the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis January
26 - February 3 and speak with Bashir on the margins to urge
that the GOS maintain calm in its reaction to an ICC decision.

Article 16
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3. (C) All P-3 ambassadors confirmed that their countries'
respective positions with regard to Article 16 had not
changed, and there had been no progress on the ground in
Sudan that would justify an Article 16 resolution. U/SYG Le
Roy said that Chinese pressure had been increasing, including
a call from the Chinese Prime Minister to Secretary General
Ban, and additional calls the Chinese will make to P-3
capitals. Ripert noted that the Sudanese Perm Rep had met
with him last week and seemed to genuinely listen to what
Ripert said, and to be grasping for what he should report
back to Khartoum. Le Roy noted that the upcoming AU Summit
in Addis could result in further calls for an Article 16
resolution and that the Sudanese National Congress Party
(NCP) has been providing information to the ICC in the hope
of obtaining a postponement of the ICC decision.

Bashir's Future
--------------


4. (C) Ripert defined the key unknown element as being
whether Bashir can remain in charge after the ICC issues its
decision. DiCarlo noted that Special Envoy Williamson had
observed during his meetings in Sudan that there were many
members of the ruling elite who would be happy to see Bashir
leave, but noted that if Bashir falls from power, this could
have both positive and negative implications. Sawers asked
whether the UN had developed a policy regarding official
contact with Bashir after issuance of an arrest warrant.
U/SYG Le Roy responded that, clearly, Secretary General Ban
would not meet with Bashir subsequent to the ICC decision,
but that the UN Office of Legal Affairs was looking into the
extent to which other UN officials might be able to meet with
Bashir. Le Roy noted that, with two peacekeeping missions in
Sudan, the UN would need to engage with Bashir at some level.
While Le Roy said that the UN would not request to meet with
Bashir, if Bashir were to request a meeting with UN, the UN
would need to be able to respond.


5. (C) P-3 ambassadors also briefly discussed the impact
that the ICC decision could have on the peace process, in
terms of whether Bashir would be seen as having legitimate
authority to be a signatory to a future Darfur peace
agreement. Le Roy said that the joint UN/AU mediator for
Darfur, Djibril Bassole, met with the JEM in London and may
have a framework agreement to present in Doha between the GOS
and JEM by the end of January. Ripert noted that if Bashir

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loses power, this could be detrimental to the peace process.
Wolff