USUN'S FRANK EXCHANGE WITH SOUTHERN SUDAN LEADERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 USUN NEW YORK 000347 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SU AF SUBJECT: USUN'S FRANK EXCHANGE WITH SOUTHERN SUDAN LEADERS USUN NEW Y 00000347 001.3 OF 003 ***PLEASE ZFR IMI ZFR USUN 347 AND BLANK ASSOCIATED MCNS... MESSAGE WILL BE RETRANSMITTED IN IT'S ENTIRETY UNDER NEW ***MRN/MCNS PER DRAFTER.................................... USUN NEW Y 00000347 002.2 OF 003 factions into five primary groups. Deng said that the ICC indictment against Bashir had impacted the process because rebels do not want to engage with a criminal indictee. ¶7. (C) Ambassador Rice asked about SPLM's engagement with the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM),and Deng responded that SPLM had encouraged JEM to negotiate and encouraged rebels to talk to each other and the government. Rice also asked about JEM's intentions, and Deng said that JEM wants to rule all of Sudan and remain connected to Dr. Turabi, though JEM officials deny this. Deng observed that JEM has a bigger agenda than other rebel movements, whose ambitions are limited to Darfur. Pagan claimed that JEM would not succeed in overthrowing the current regime, although Deng added that JEM and SPLM together would have the capacity to do so. Abdel Aziz, SPLM Secretary for Political Affairs, said that JEM had requested an official meeting with SPLM but that SPLM is troubled by the interplay between religion and state involvement that JEM represents. International Criminal Court Indictment -------------- ¶8. (C) Deng said that the SPLM did not support anti-ICC sentiment and that no demonstrations had been held in the South despite strong NCP pressure on SPLM. Ambassador Rice responded that the perception of the international community was that SPLM's silence indicated acquiescence with the GOS position. She relayed that Ugandan Perm Rep Rugunda had told her that Salva Kiir told Ugandan President Museveni that the SPLM supported deferral of the indictment. Rice also said that other African countries have used SPLM as an excuse for deferral, arguing that SPLM is concerned only with the CPA and that justice for Darfur can be deferred. Rice encouraged the delegation to meet Ugandan Perm Rep Rugunda. ¶9. (C) Deng responded that African countries in the region view the NCP as a threat and are concerned that if they are tough with the NCP, the regime will arm internal rebel movements. Deng also said that the NCP uses oil money to "buy" support and that Libya had influenced Senegal and other West African countries to support ICC deferral by providing financial assistance. NGO Expulsions -------------- ¶10. (C) Deng reiterated that SPLM learned about the expulsions through the media, even though the SPLM Minister for Humanitarian Affairs should have been part of the decision making process. He said the SPLM had protested the decision and called for a reversal. Deputy Perm Rep Lumumba said that the NGO expulsions were part of the NCP's overarching strategy and should be investigated further. He observed that by gaining control of the NGOs, the NCP would have access to the displaced population. Lumumba also said that the NCP had hired many of the local NGO staff and that the national intelligence service had infiltrated NGOs as well. Ambassador Rice asked about the NCP request that expelled NGOs provide severance pay to local staff. Deng replied that the NCP had asked for the equivalent of 20 million USD because the NCP did not feel any political pressure. ¶11. (C) Deng said that African countries were not happy with the expulsions. Deng reported that, in a meeting between Bashir and Qaddafi, in his capacity as President of the African Union, Qaddafi asked Bashir to reverse this decision. Deng also suggested that the United States engage with Qatar. He said that Arab statements about the capacity of Muslim NGOs to fill the gaps created by the expulsions pleased Bashir. Deng said neither African nor Arab NGOs have the capacity to fill these gaps. Ambassador Rice asked whether Arab countries have pressed for reversal of Bashir's decision and Deng said that both Egypt and Libya have, and that while Saudi Arabia had not, the Saudis did not support the expulsions. Security in Southern Sudan -------------- ¶12. (C) Pagan said that the potential for war between the north and south was high. In addition to obstructing CPA implementation, the NCP was arming Arab tribes, sending troops to border areas and encouraging tribal conflicts within southern Sudan. The GOSS also faced an economic crisis and had lost seventy-five percent of its revenues. Pagan said this had serious implications for GOSS survival, noting that paying salaries to government officials would be a problem. Pagan claimed that the GOSS needed economic support to maintain the process of transitioning from war to peace. He closed by stating that the SPLM and the USG need USUN NEW Y 00000347 003.2 OF 003 to develop a new partnership around mutual goals for peace, democracy, and sustainable development in Sudan. Ambassador Rice Responds -------------- ¶13. (C) Ambassador Rice said that she could agree with the delegation about the enumeration of the challenges faced by the GOSS. The critical question, she said, was how to resolve these challenges. Rice told the delegation that the SPLM had failed to present a plan that encompassed the genocide and killing in Darfur that had been exacerbated by the NGO expulsions. She said the United States would support CPA implementation and hoped to prevent collapse in Sudan but that "we can't implement the CPA at the expense of Darfur." Rice stressed that CPA implementation and resolving the conflict in Darfur must be mutually reinforcing. She asked the delegation how SPLM proposed dealing with these challenges. ¶14. (C) Abdel Aziz responded that the NCP was not ready for peace and wanted a military victory. He said that the NCP knew rebels were weak because they remain divided along tribal lines, even within their own movements. Abdel advocated for a new peace initiative and stated that no one respected the regional initiatives currently under way. Ezekial responded that if Darfur becomes part of an overall solution, it is the NCP that will need to make a concession for Darfur, in terms of sharing political power, not the SPLM. ¶15. (C) Deng responded that the GOS would never implement remaining CPA issues and would not move towards peace in Darfur, leaving few options for resolution other than regime change. Ambassador Rice observed that Bashir could not possibly be interested in fighting wars on two fronts, both in Darfur and with the south. She encouraged the SPLM to think of a comprehensive solution. Deng indicated that the SPLM would depend on the U.S. Rice said "We do not have a magic wand, and even if we did, where would we wave it." She reiterated that despite agreement on the diagnosis of the problem, more thinking on all sides must be completed with regard to the solution. Rice