EU: AMBASSADOR RICE PRESSES PERMREPS TO PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 001169 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV AORC UNGA EU SUBJECT: EU: AMBASSADOR RICE PRESSES PERMREPS TO PLAN ENDGAME ON SCALES AND BUDGET REF: USUN 1122 Classified By: Ambassador Alejandro Wolff for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Ambassador Rice urged Permreps from the European Union on December 15 to consider moving to the endgame in their effort to reach a consensus with the G-77 over scales of assessment and the regular budget. (See Reftel for details on negotiations.) Rice said that the U.S. had so far supported the EU proposal to reduce the percentage of the scale paid by EU members, but that a hardening G-77 position threatened to put the U.S. ceiling in jeopardy, making it very difficult for the U.S. to continue its support for the EU position. EU Permreps acknowledged that there was little chance the G-77 would agree to the EU position, but nevertheless urged Ambassador Rice to continue supporting their efforts. On Afghanistan, Ambassador Rice asked EU Permreps to ensure that civilian efforts were commensurate with the military commitment, and encouraged support for budget increases for UNAMA security and suggested that ISAF countries should consider appointing a civilian coordinator to oversee joint efforts. EU Permreps supported ratcheting up pressure on Iran to comply with its international obligations, through a new Security Council resolution and continued enforcement of existing resolutions. EU Permreps expressed a desire for an enhanced EU role in the General Assembly, with the Lisbon Treaty in effect although acknowledged that they had not yet reached agreement on what an enhanced EU presence might look like. END SUMMARY. -------------- SCALES OF ASSESSMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) During a semi-annual luncheon with EU Permreps on December 15, Ambassador Rice urged the EU to clearly articulate its strategy for reaching consensus with the G-77 on revised scales of assessment and budget figures during ongoing Fifth Committee negotiations. (See Reftel for details.) Rice recalled that the U.S. continued to support the proposal presented by the EU with other like-minded countries, but she had seen no indication that the EU proposed changes to the scales had gained any traction in the G-77. On the contrary, Rice said, the G-77 had hardened its position in recent days, and was threatening to raise the U.S. ceiling if no compromise could be reached-- a prospect that was making continued U.S. support for the EU position untenable in Washington. Rice recalled that the Obama Administration had worked to obtain bi-partisan U.S. Congress support for paying U.S. budget and assessments arrears, but that this support would disappear if the current ceiling for U.S. contributions were to be threatened. Rice believed the most likely outcome of the ongoing scales negotiations would be the "status quo." Even that outcome could not be assured unless the U.S. and EU, together with other like-minded countries, were to rationally assess the landscape, articulate a strategy for how they planned to conclude the negotiations, and move to the endgame. ¶3. (C) Swedish Permrep Liden said he didn't have high expectations for the success of the EU proposal during the budget cycle, but that he wanted to keep it alive long enough to extract some small compromises from the G-77, and "set the stage" for future budget negotiations. U.K. Permrep Lyall-Grant also was "not optimistic" for the success of the EU proposal, but he concurred with Liden that there were concessions to be gained from the G-77 in the eleventh hour of negotiations. Lyall-Grant said the U.S. payment of its arrears reflected an obligation that the U.S. should have been fulfilling all along, and compared the U.S. position to a man who seeks credit for stopping beating his wife. He asked Rice to maintain U.S. solidarity with the EU. German Deputy Permrep Ney added that for Europe, the status quo meant that the EU, which "overpaid heavily", was forced to increase its percentages every year, while the U.S., which "underpaid heavily", maintained its ceiling. Ney predicted the endgame would not start until the end of the following week (December 23),and "if we blink now," the EU would not see what the G-77 had to offer. ¶4. (C) Ambassador Rice reiterated that the U.S. was "not willing to drive off a cliff" with the EU--it was time to "get what we can, without burning the house down." At Rice's urging, the Swedish Permrep undertook to arrange an early follow-on meeting with Ambassador Rice and Permreps of other like-minded states to confirm the way forward. -------------- AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN -------------- USUN NEW Y 00001169 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) Offering her perspectives on Afghanistan, Ambassador Rice said the recent U.S. policy review had been the most thorough and comprehensive that she had ever been involved in. She thanked EU member states for their troop commitments in support of the U.S. increase, and said it would be important to ensure that civilian efforts were commensurate with the military effort. In this regard, she asked for EU support for budget increases for the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA),including for security upgrades. Rice also acknowledged that there were limits to the capacity of the UN to carry out all civilian efforts in the difficult environments of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that UNAMA was constrained by lack of resources and personnel. Rice was concerned that the vital civilian efforts, if left entirely to UN control, would be carried out in "UN or multi-lateral time." She added that the U.S. was consulting with NATO allies and non-NATO contributors to ISAF on the possibility of appointing an overall civilian coordinator for ISAF assistance. Such a coordinator would be able to manage the bilateral efforts that were already being carried out by ISAF contributors. ¶6. (SBU) Netherlands Permrep Schaper expressed concerns about whether it would be possible to determine clear responsibilities for civilian efforts on the ground if UNAMA were not responsible for overall coordination. He thought it would be difficult to change the "orientation" of NATO toward involvement in civilian efforts. Rice said the reality was that the international community had shown through its actions that it would not coordinate its bilateral efforts through UNAMA; it was time to acknowledge UN limitations and find a coordination mechanism that worked. -------------- IRAN -------------- ¶7. (SBU) On Iran, Rice said the door of engagement with the U.S. remained open. However, barring an unforeseen dramatic change of course on the part of Iran, she foresaw that pressure would soon need to be applied as part of the dual-track approach. Rice commented that as Iran's largest trading partner, the EU also had economic pressure it could bring to bear. French Deputy Permrep de Riviere said that France believed it was time to increase pressure. He thought that more lists of names and entities for sanctions would be easier to achieve in the Security Council than trade measures. U.K. Permrep Lyall-Grant said the EU and U.S. should seek a maximum resolution, but needed to be realistic. If the Council is unable to agree on strong measures, he believed it would be up to the EU to do what it could to ratchet up threats of sanctions. Austrian Permrep Mayr-Harting agreed, but said that a message from the Security Council would have a stronger impact. Rice agreed that trade sanctions would be "next to impossible" in the Council, and suggested that much more could also be done on the basis of existing Security Council resolutions. -------------- ENHANCED EU ROLE AT THE UN -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In response to a question from Ambassador Rice about how the new EU structure under the Lisbon Treaty would manifest itself at the UN, EU Observer Permrep Serrano said one objective would be for the EU to have a status that would allow it to speak early in important debates, rather than at the end. Swedish Permrep Liden added that the EU presidency already effectively had such a status, since the Presidency spoke on behalf of the EU at major debates. Ambassador Rice pointed out that if the EU were to achieve a special status, other regional organizations may want to pursue a similar status. The U.S. was in the process of thinking through the consequences of this, but had not developed a position. She added that if the EU were to present its argument as "preserving the status quo", rather than "seeking a special status", she thought it would be easier to swallow. Liden said that nothing was immediately on the horizon for an enhanced EU presence in New York, in any case, and Spain would assume a "transitional" presidency in January. RICE