DAYTON ARTICLE IV - 42ND SRCC: PARTIES WANT OSCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 USOSCE 000073 SIPDIS STATE FOR VCI/CCA, VCI/NRRC, EUR/RPM, EUR/PRA, EUR/SCE JCS FOR J-5 OSD FOR ISA (PERENYI) NSC FOR HAYES USUN FOR LEGAL, POL EUCOM FOR J-5 CENTCOM FOR J-5 UNVIE FOR AC GENEVA FOR CD E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019 TAGS: PARM PREL KCFE OSCE BK HR MW SR SUBJECT: DAYTON ARTICLE IV - 42ND SRCC: PARTIES WANT OSCE TO STAY Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate H. Neighbour for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The 42nd Dayton Article IV Sub-Regional Consultative Commission (SRCC),representing the four Parties to the Dayton Agreement (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, and Serbia),met March 16-19 in Split, Croatia. The SRCC was held in a cooperative and friendly atmosphere, resulting in easy approval of several documents that had been prepared and approved in advance by the Permanent Working Group. The most contentious discussions were reserved for the issue of ownership of Article IV responsibilities, with the four Parties seeking to avoid a rapid transfer of technical responsibilities to them from the OSCE Office of the Personal Representative (PR) for Dayton Article IV, headed by Italian Brigadier General Costanzo Periotto. End summary. Working Group Prep -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Permanent Working Group meeting took place in Vienna February 16-18. As a result, several documents were prepared and preliminary decisions made that greatly improved the efficiency of the March SRCC in Split. Most importantly, the Dayton Article IV Inspection Schedule for 2009 was drafted. An early draft was prepared by the Office of the Personal Representative, but adjustments were made by the Parties themselves, reportedly with little or no disagreement. SRCC Quickly Approves Agenda Items -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The subsequent 42nd SRCC, a success by all accounts, resulted in Parties achieving quick agreement on most agenda items, including adoption of the "Analysis of the Implementation of Inspections" for 2008 and the "Analysis of the Annual Info-Exchange for 2009." Both were prepared by the Office of the Permanent Representative, as has been the accepted procedure. 2009 Inspection Schedule -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Parties also approved, with minimal discussion, the Dayton Article IV Inspection Schedule for 2009, as prepared in advance by the Permanent Working Group. In accordance with the schedule: - Serbia will accept 6 inspections in 2009 (3 from Croatia, 2 from Bosnia-Herzegovina, and 1 from Montenegro); - Croatia will accept 5 inspections (3 from Serbia, 1 from Bosnia, and 1 from Montenegro); - Bosnia-Herzegovina will accept 4 inspections (2 from Serbia, 1 from Croatia, and 1 from Montenegro); and - Montenegro will accept 3 inspections (1 from each other Party). This overall formula, roughly corresponding to objects of verification ratios, symmetrical in numbers of active and passive inspections made/received, and fully including tiny USOSCE 00000073 002 OF 003 Montenegro, is likely to hold for the near future. With just 18 total inspections, it likely represents the "minimum necessary formula" needed to ensure continued Treaty viability, a concept discussed during prior meetings of the SRCC. First Inspection in 2009 -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The first Article IV inspection mission for 2009 will take place in Croatia, to be inspected by Bosnia-Herzegovina from March 30 to April 3. The inspection team will include assistants from Germany and Romania. The evaluation team will include assistants from Italy and the United States. Independent Inspection Reports -------------- ¶6. (SBU) An interesting SRCC discussion led to a procedural change in the dissemination of inspection reports. Reports will now be disseminated by the Inspecting Party to all other Parties and the Office of the Permanent Representative. Previously, the reports were first sent to the Office of the Permanent Representative for further dissemination. This represents a very small, but symbolic, move toward increased "ownership" as it applies to technical Article IV operations and management. This discussion, initiated by the Personal Representative, Brig Gen Periotto, lead to the unintended consequence of all four Parties requesting access to the independent inspection reports prepared by assistants from countries that are not a part of the Treaty. After some initial hesitation, Periotto declared his "positive inclination" to meet this request while needing a short period to set up an appropriate dissemination mechanism. ¶7. (SBU) Other discussions led to productive movement on issues such as voluntary limits on numbers of military personnel and the better use of the Integrated Notification Applications (INA) communication and notification system. Additionally, Croatia made a special intervention to update the SRCC on ongoing Croatian reductions in Armaments Limited by the Agreement ("ALA," a term synonymous with "TLE" under the CFE Treaty). In total, 113 items of Croatian ALA at eight different military locations were reduced in early ¶2009. These reduced items are to be used as ground targets or as static displays. Serbia conducted a supplemental Article IV inspection in Croatia from March 10 to 12 to partly verify this reduction. The Serbian team inspected the largest grouping of ALA at the Jedinstvo facility, concluding that "the 51 ALA present were no longer utilizable for military purposes." Transfer of Ownership to Parties -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The most serious discussions were reserved for the "transfer of ownership" of Article IV responsibilities, whereby the parties would gradually take ownership of responsibilities currently shouldered by the OSCE Office of the Personal Representative (PR). All four Parties, citing personnel and funding shortfalls, pushed against the PR's efforts to transfer more substantive ownership issues such as formulating inspection plans, analyzing inspection results and the annual data exchange, and support functions such as USOSCE 00000073 003 OF 003 interpretation and administrative support. ¶9. (C) Periotto, the PR, firmly believes that the pushback on ownership is due more to the regional political situation in the Balkans than to funding shortfalls. He opined privately that given the problematic political situation in BiH and Kosovo, there is little desire by the parties to see a withdrawal of international support to Dayton Article IV because it would effectively risk removing perceived political stability and legitimacy from this otherwise successful arms control regime. ¶10. (C) COMMENT: Given ongoing uncertainties about the situation in Bosnia and Kosovo and the apparent success of the present division of responsibilities between the Personal Representative and the Parties, Mission recommends against any transfer of additional responsibilities to the Parties at this time. END COMMENT. ¶11. (U) Dayton Article IV was established in 1996 and is patterned after the treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. It is a successful arms control regime under the auspices of the OSCE for what are now the four states of the former Yugoslavia: Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republic of Croatia, Montenegro, and the Republic of Serbia. SCOTT