CFE/JCG: SEPTEMBER - DECEMBER 2009 END OF ROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USOSCE 000285 SIPDIS STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM NSC FOR FRIEDT, HAYDEN JCS FOR J5 NORWOOD, COL SMITH OSD FOR ISA (KEHL, WALLENDER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2014 TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: SEPTEMBER - DECEMBER 2009 END OF ROUND REF: STATE 92639 Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate Hugh Neighbour, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The 2009 fall session of the Joint Consultative Group (JCG) was dominated by Allied criticism of Russia's failure to fulfill its obligations under CFE, Russia's continued focus on presenting and defending its May 2009 Aide Memoire, and preparations for the OSCE Ministerial Council in Athens. Russia did not provide its annual exchange of military information under the CFE Treaty, nor the one-page summary as provided the past two years. The U.S. provided our CFE data to all States Parties. Allies continued to maintain unity through the round with universal appreciation that high-level U.S.-Russia bilateral meetings on CFE are pending the availability of the START negotiating teams. All USG objectives for the fall session were met or exceeded. The winter/spring round begins on January 19. End Summary. -------------- Allies Continue Complaints on Russian Non-Compliance -------------- ¶2. (C) Throughout the session, Allies remained united and continued to emphasize the need for Russia to return to full implementation. The fall round saw Allies record 11 instances of Russia rejecting CFE inspections. Allied interventions were always pre-coordinated, with a minimum group of six or more Allies providing supporting interventions critical of Russia. Allies also censured Russia for failing to provide supplemental data in October for equipment located at Kushchevskaya. While criticizing non-compliance, Allies in Vienna were also consistent in reaffirming Alliance support for the Parallel Actions Package and the lead negotiation role for the U.S. -------------- Russia,s Approach -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Russia continued to raise relatively consistent and long-standing criticisms of NATO enlargement. Russian Arms Control Rep Mikhail Ulyanov repeatedly castigated NATO's allegedly passive negotiating posture and alleged reluctance to meet and talk, underscoring Russia's desire for the U.S. to engage in what he termed serious negotiations, including supporting talks in Vienna. In October, Ulyanov returned to a walk-through of Russia's May 5 Aide Memoire paragraphs 7-12. Russia believes the Aide Memoire serves as a catalyst for intensified discussions. Ulyanov stressed that there was much work to be done to flesh out the Parallel Action Package and that work must be done in Vienna. Seeking a greater role for the JCG in those negotiations remains a consistent Russian theme. ¶4. (SBU) Mission expects more of the same behavior from Russia, namely Russia will: continue to demand changes to the A/CFE regime (especially changing the terms of the flank), reject criticism of their own non-compliance by accusing NATO of violations, and push for JCG work on specific issues in addition to whatever high level activity may take place. -------------- Ministerial Preparations -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In preparation for the December 1-2 OSCE Ministerial Council meeting in Athens, the JCG spent considerable efforts attempting to reach consensus on a Letter from the Chairman of the JCG to the Ministers on the activities of the JCG in 2009. U.S. suggestions for the letter were provided under JCG.DEL/4/09. Despite intensive efforts by the French chair, the draft Letter did not achieve consensus (JCG.DEL/6/09). ¶6. (SBU) The JCG was successful in preparing a paragraph for inclusion in a Ministerial Declaration (JCG.DEL/2/09/Rev 1). However, the Greek OSCE Chair was unable to gain consensus on a comprehensive declaration of all OSCE, and cut it back to a two-page version that did not include any reference to the CFE Treaty. As a result, at the end of the Ministerial, Allies took the initiative to make a joint statement on the CFE Treaty (MC.DEL/78/09). -------------- Data Exchange Without Russia USOSCE 00000285 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶7. (SBU) As expected, Russia did not provide its CFE annual exchange of military information, nor did we receive the one-page summary provided the past two years. Russia said the one-page summary should be available by next week. The U.S. provided its data as JCG.EMI/14/09. Azerbaijan again declared tanks and artillery over allowed national limits under CFE. -------------- What to Expect in 2010 -------------- ¶8. (C) Mission does not expect significant changes in JCG activity from the status quo pending future high-level meetings with Russia. Allies continue to support the current track of bilateral negotiations as the best chance of overcoming the impasse. Allies also support the strategy of focusing attention on Russian non-compliance, but the repetitive interventions are not perceived by any delegation as having any effect. ¶9. (SBU) The first JCG meeting of winter/spring session will be on January 19, under Georgian chairmanship. Mission welcomes Washington guidance and remarks for the opening plenary. -------------- List of Reporting Cables -------------- ¶10. (U) For more details, here follows a list of post reporting on the September-December Round: USOSCE 195; USOSCE 203; USOSCE 213; USOSCE 219; USOSCE 220; USOSCE 230; USOSCE 244; USOSCE 248; USOSCE 252; USOSCE 258; USOSCE 263; USOSCE 275; USOSCE 282. FULLER