NATO SECRETARY GENERAL READY TO REACH OUT TO CSTO?

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USNATO 000383

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019

TAGS: PGOV, PINR, NATO, RS

SUBJECT: NATO SECRETARY GENERAL READY TO REACH OUT TO CSTO?

REF: USNATO 348

Classified By: Ambassador Ivo H. Daalder for reasons 1.4 (b/d).

1. (U) This is an action request. See paragraph 4.

2. (C) Summary: NATO Secretary General Rasmussen may be

planning to take improved NATO-Russia relations to a new

level by proposing that NATO engage with the Collective

Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The SecGen recently

indicated that he has an "open mind" to such a course of

action, has been in contact with the head of the CSTO, and

plans to make a speech on NATO-Russia relations that would go

beyond most Allies' comfort zones. Engaging with an

organization initiated by Moscow to counter NATO and U.S.

influence would be counterproductive at a time when we should

focus on enhancing relations with Russia bilaterally and as

an alliance. NATO-CSTO engagement would likely lead to the

same bloc-on-bloc dynamic that manifested during the Cold

War, and further increase Moscow's influence over our Central

Asian partners, countries we should actively court through

NATO's Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC). End

summary.

3. (C) NATO Secretary General Rasmussen may encourage NATO

engagement with the Russian-led CSTO in order to advance his

priority to improve NATO-Russia relations. We believe that

the SecGen will soon broach this topic, possibly at a

September 15 PermReps meeting devoted to Russia and/or during

a speech on NATO-Russia relations the SecGen intends to give

in the near future. Our supposition is based upon the

following developments:

-- The SecGen told the press on August 31 that he had an

"open mind" toward "all ideas" intended to improve relations

with Russia in response to a question about Zbigniew

Brzezinski's recent proposal that NATO reach a security

cooperation agreement with the CSTO as a means to draw Russia

closer into the Euro-Atlantic community. In the same

interview, Rasmussen urged NATO to form a "strategic

partnership" with Russia in order to address common security

threats.

-- The SecGen sent CSTO Secretary General Nikolay Borduyzha

an August 24 letter thanking him for an earlier message in

/>
which Borduyzha offered Rasmussen congratulations on his

appointment as NATO SecGen. We understand that Rasmussen had

his letter delivered to Borduyzha through Russian Ambassador

to NATO Rogozin. Rasmussen's brief message (a copy of which

was provided by a member of the NATO International Staff

(strictly protect)) thanked the CSTO chief for his "kind

letter" of August 1, noted that he had taken over NATO at a

time when the "organization is faced with a wide range of

challenges," and concluded that "NATO is well placed and well

equipped to meet these challenges." We have not seen

Borduyzha's initial letter to Rasmussen.

-- Rogozin encouraged NATO-CSTO engagement in the non-paper

delivered to the SecGen during their August 11 meeting,

during which the often pugnacious Rogozin appears to have

charmed Rasmussen (reftel). The SecGen intends to discuss

the response to the Russian non-paper at a September 15

PermReps lunch devoted to NATO-Russia issues, and could

propose following through on Rogozin's NATO-CSTO initiative.

-- Rasmussen intends to address the topic of improving NATO

relations with Russia, one of his stated priorities as

SecGen, in an upcoming speech that a member of the NATO

International Staff told us would probably "go further than

many Allies, including the United States, will be comfortable

with." We do not have details on the speech, which is one of

several thematic addresses the SecGen intends to give laying

out his vision for NATO. (Note: Rasmussen is scheduled to

give a speech on Russia at the Carnegie Center Brussels on

September 18. End note.)

4. (C) Should the SecGen propose NATO-CSTO engagement, this

action will significantly up the ante on Rasmussen's

initiative to improve NATO-Russia relations. Understanding

that arguments could be made for NATO to engage on some level

with the CSTO, we believe that such a proposal, which would

face significant resistance from some Allies, should be

initiated through a consensus of NATO members rather than the

SecGen. We request Department's guidance in order to respond

to any proposals the SecGen may make for NATO-CSTO

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engagement.

5. (C) Comment: We maintain that while NATO strives to

enhance its engagement with Russia, including cooperation

that could lead to practical results such as greater Russian

assistance to Afghanistan, it would be counterproductive for

NATO to engage with the CSTO, an organization initiated by

Moscow to counter potential NATO and U.S. influence in the

former Soviet space. To date, the CSTO has proven

ineffective in most areas of activity and has been

politically divided. NATO engagement with the CSTO could

enhance the legitimacy of what may be a waning organization,

contributing to a bloc-on-bloc dynamic reminiscent of the

Cold War. Instead, we should focus our efforts on improving

the U.S. relationship with Russia bilaterally and through

NATO.

6. (C) Comment continued: In addition, validation of the

CSTO could further strengthen Moscow's influence over our

Central Asian and other partners in NATO's EAPC. All the

members of the CSTO are in the EAPC, which we believe is the

proper venue in which to engage them.

DAALDER

NATO SECRETARY GENERAL READY TO REACH OUT TO CSTO?

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