AFGHANISTAN: THE FOCUS OF THE AUGUST 4 NAC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 USNATO 000342 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2019 TAGS: PREL NATO EWWT MARR MOPS AF PK RS TZ XW SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: THE FOCUS OF THE AUGUST 4 NAC REF: A. USNATO 336 ¶B. USNATO 337 Classified By: A/PolAd A. "Hoot" Baez. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C/REL NATO) SUMMARY: In his first North Atlantic Council meeting as the Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen chaired a discussion of the situation in Afghanistan. Supreme Allied Commander Europe Admiral Stavridis termed the situation "hard, but not hopeless" and outlined four priorities on the way forward: including civ-mil coordination, strategic communications, a population-centered approach, and training and equipping the Afghan forces. GEN McChrystal, the Commander of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, said that his priorities were protecting and connecting with the Afghan population, as well as "partnering" with the Afghan National Security Forces. McChrystal said that over the near term, he was focused on providing support to the August 20 Afghan presidential elections. Noting that the post-election period would also be key, Ambassador Daalder stressed the need to adequately resource the training and partnering requirements. He also argued for the development of a Strategic Directive with clear benchmarks. McChrystal said that responding to the developing insurgency in the north of the country would require a "more focused" effort. He noted that the ongoing operation in Helmand was different from previous operations there because this time Allied forces were there to stay, providing security for the local population. McChrystal answered questions about insurgent tactics and capability, arguing that the quantity of improvised explosive devices was a bigger problem than their quality. He also termed the deployment of AWACS aircraft as an "important" need. In response to questions, McChrystal said that he did not recommend a change to ISAF's detention policy. Several PermReps stressed the importance of keeping non-NATO troop contributors involved in the process, arguing in favor a high-level ISAF-format meeting in the near future. McChrystal promised that his 60-day assessment of the situation in Afghanistan would accurately reflect his view. Italy announced the contributions of air assets to the support the elections, while Slovakia announced a contribution of polio vaccines. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C/REL NATO) In his first North Atlantic Council meeting as the Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen explained his priorities for his term (reported ref A),including Afghanistan. He then chaired a discussion of the situation in Afghanistan during which Supreme Allied Commander Europe Stavridis said that the situation was "hard, but not hopeless." Stavridis stressed four main priorities as the way forward in Afghanistan: civilian and military coordination; strengthening strategic communications both inside and outside Afghanistan; placing the Afghan people at the center of our efforts; and training and equipping the Afghan forces to lead on security. On this last point, Stavridis said that "all security must be local." USNATO 00000342 002 OF 005 McChrystal: Protect, Connect, and Partner -------------- ¶3. (C/REL NATO) Joining the NAC by video-teleconference from Kabul, GEN McChrystal, the Commander of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF),said protecting and connecting with the Afghan people remained his priority. He also stressed the importance of "partnering" with the Afghan National Security Forces. Focus on Elections -------------- ¶4. (C/REL NATO) McChrystal said that over the near term, ISAF was focused on support for the Afghan elections which will take place on August 20. He said that he and his staff had held a series of meetings with Afghan officials in order to make sure that "coordination is tight." He noted that ISAF would support the efforts of the MoD and MoI. He said that an assessment would be conducted on or about August 10 of which polling stations would be unable to open due to security concerns, while noting that decisions could be made later to open additional stations should conditions warrant. When questioned on his views of "local" cease-fires during the election period, McChrystal said he thought they held some promise with presented only minimal risks. But he stressed that this was only true of "local" cease-fires which provided "local" security. He expressed skepticism about cease-fires at higher levels. Ambassador Daalder added that strategic communications during the elections period would be key, arguing that events would need to be responded to quickly. He also said that there was a need for a "common line." Rasmussen agreed, noting the need to speak with one voice "before, during, and after the elections." But Post-Election Also Important -------------- ¶5. (C/REL NATO) Ambassador Daalder said the conflict in Afghanistan was entering a new phase. Picking up on some of McChrystal's earlier statements, he said that training and partnering would be key. In this regard, he noted the need for additional resources, including the personnel who would serve as trainers/mentors/partners and the money necessary to sustain the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF). Daalder also urged the development by year's end of a Strategic Directive with benchmarks, noting that in order to show progress we needed to know what progress would mean. Rasmussen agreed on the need for benchmarks, linking them to the process for handing over to the Afghans. The UK also stressed the importance of training, noting that the Alliance would have to be "innovative" in how it will fill the training requirements. ¶6. (C/REL NATO) Reacting to Daalder and referencing Rasmussen's priority for transferring security responsibility USNATO 00000342 003 OF 005 to the Afghans, the Belgian PermRep raised concerns that the figures he had been hearing recently about the ANSF end-strength were "huge," particularly in relation to the overall size of the adult male population in the country. Developing Insurgency in the North -------------- ¶7. (C/REL NATO) McChrystal said that he had traveled to Konduz, where Regional Command-North was trying to deal with a developing insurgency. He said that he thought that ISAF would need a "more focused" effort there. The Helmand Operation -------------- ¶8. (C/REL NATO) Reporting on the ongoing operation in Helmand, McChrystal said that there were still areas in the Helmand river valley that needed to be cleared. He said the current operation was different from previous ones in the region in that "we intend to stay and provide a level of security for the population," adding that it was hoped governance could then take hold. He admitted, however, that the local population remained skeptical that the ISAF forces would stay. In response to a question from the Spanish PermRep, McChrystal said that at the tactical level the Afghan National Army (ANA) had performed well, but noted that it was still not big enough to be really effective. Insurgent Tactics and Capabilities -------------- ¶9. (C/REL NATO) A number of PermReps asked questions about insurgent tactics and capabilities. The Polish PermRep, for example, said that it seemed the Opposing Militant Forces had recently acquired better equipment. He asked for an evaluation of where they got their equipment and training. The Estonian and Canadian PermReps asked about reports that he had seen that insurgents had acquired Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS). The Estonian PermRep also expressed surprise by the recent influx of sophisticated improvised explosive devices (IEDs). While acknowledging that it would be serious if insurgents gained access to significant numbers of MANPADS, McChrystal counseled against panic. He noted that there had been no evidence of their use on the battlefield and said that he was not sure they had them. Regarding IEDs, he said that the issue was more one of quantity than quality. He said that most were still homemade, often using fertilizer as their main ingredient. He said that what made their use recently so effective was that they were being used in large numbers--he gave the example of a stretch of road that was seeded with them--and were often linked to coordinated attacks. AWACS: An Important Need -------------- USNATO 00000342 004 OF 005 ¶10. (C/REL NATO) Noting the difficulties NATO has had in reaching basing and overflight agreements for NATO AWACS aircraft, German PermRep Brandenburg asked McChrystal for his views on the AWACS deployment. McChrystal said that he would term it an "important" need. While acknowledging that ISAF has operated without it in the past, he said that recent changes he had made to the tactical directive on the use of close air support had meant that many planes were being used to make close "passes" as a demonstration of force rather than to actually drop bombs or fire rocket or missiles. This had the effect of reducing civilian casualties. At the same time, he said that there was a "high density" of aircraft in the skies over Afghanistan and AWACS was useful in managing their operations. McChrystal: No Need to Change Detention Policy -------------- - ¶11. (C/REL NATO) Referring to discussion about NATO's 96-hour detention policy with visiting Ambassador Richard Holbrooke on July 28 (ref B),the Polish PermRep asked whether it may be prudent for ISAF to extend its detentions in the run-up to August 20 to ensure "still dangerous" individuals would be incapable of re-entering the battlefield to foment elections violence. The Dutch and Norwegians rejected this idea, saying ISAF should not reopen this debate and should rather focus on improving the Afghans' ability to deal appropriately with detainees through justice and law enforcement sectors. General McChrystal reassured Allies that he was not recommending an extension to the 96-hour detention policy. "A good detention policy must be able to take insurgents off the street and perform good intelligence extraction, but must be a fully Afghan capacity," he said, agreeing that the emphasis should be on improving Afghan law enforcement and justice capabilities to handle detainees in the "post-96-hour" phase. Bringing In Partners -------------- ¶12. (C/REL NATO) The Romanian PermRep stressed the importance of keeping non-NATO troop contributors involved in the process. UK PermRep Eldon agreed, noting particularly the importance of keeping Australia involved. Eldon argued that an ISAF-format meeting be held in the near future. Other PermReps, including Ambassador Daalder, also agreed. 60-Day Assessment -------------- ¶13. (C/REL NATO) McChrystal promised that his 60-day assessment would reflect his views, without political shading. Rasmussen noted the need for a consistent media line on the 60-day assessment. New Contributions -------------- USNATO 00000342 005 OF 005 ¶14. (C/REL NATO) Italy announced additional election support of two A-129 Attack helicopters for Regional Command-West, two Predator unmanned aircraft, and one helicopter for intelligence surveillance and close air support. Slovakia announced 30,000 Euros of humanitarian aid in the form of 250,000 polio vaccines distributed through UNICEF. DAALDER