CFE/VCC: JULY 8 -- ALLIES ANTICIPATE IS DRAFT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 USNATO 000316 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2019 TAGS: KCFE NATO PARM PREL SUBJECT: CFE/VCC: JULY 8 -- ALLIES ANTICIPATE IS DRAFT ON NEW TOR FOR VCC EXPERTS REF: STATE 56790 Classified By: A/POLAD A. "Hoot" Baez for reasons 1.4(B)&(D). ¶1. (C) Summary: During the July 8 VCC, Allies engaged in debate over the future role of experts. With the discussion revolving around a handful of Allies espousing familiar positions, the IS announced it would draft new terms of reference for the VCC ad hoc group of experts to discuss at the next VCC. The IS also provided a briefing on Russia's summer military exercises. The briefing concluded that participation in Russia's exercise KAVKAZ 2009, which took place in late June and early July, had remained in line with Russian MOD announcements, while personnel and equipment involved with upcoming exercises were expected to remain under the VD99 thresholds for notification. VCC Chair Miggins announced his retirement from the IS after 14 years. The next VCC will be held September 21. End Summary. -------------- THE FUTURE OF VCC EXPERTS -------------- ¶2. (C) The Morning session of the July 8 VCC focused on the mandate for future work and prioritization of work for experts. The Chair, supported by all allies who spoke, reiterated that experts still retain a mandate of core tasks, such as quota allocation, training and inspection and evaluation schedule deconfliction. Norway, supported by Denmark, repeated its long-held view that experts should be allowed either to conduct a chapter-by-chapter review of VD99 or at a minimum, analyze Russia's VD99 implementation FFT paper from the 2009 AIAM. Norway also argued that experts should review implementation decisions under consideration in Vienna. (Comment: On the margins Norway conceded that it would be difficult for experts to contribute meaningfully to issues already tabled in Vienna, but that none the less, it would be useful to receive periodic updates on the status of those issues. End comment.) ¶3. (C) Canada made a lengthy intervention arguing the case for an open-ended mandate. Canada asserted that limiting the scope of work for experts was, in effect, placing a "gag order" on nations, which should be able to raise new issues of concern in the experts meetings under "any other business." Canada claimed that last year's work of the ad hoc group of experts was deemed useful by all Allies and should be seen as the standard for its continued work. Canada argued that limiting the agenda will disrupt experts' ability to focus efforts on new and emerging issues. With regard to work priorities for experts, Canada suggested six possible areas of work: -- A review of VD99, if not a complete review, then at least a review of the Russian FFT from AIAM 2009. -- The Turkish proposal to review the format and content of mission reports -- Review the NATO Intra-Alliance Understanding (IAU) regarding Alliance implementation of verification activities -- Review OSCE VD99 survey of suggestions to prepare for AIAM ¶2010. -- Review and discuss current OSCE FFT papers to include papers from last year's experts' work. -- Develop position papers for current implementation issues to which Allies conducting inspections have acquiesced, i.e., the non-availability of helicopters for VD99 specified area over-flight and the refusal of Ukraine to allow use of GPS. ¶4. (C) Having noted its concern over the recurring lack of availability of helicopters for overflight in some pS and the fact that Allies do not have a standard response; Canada proposed that Allies consider leasing aircraft, or "borrowing" helicopters from other Allies for overflights if the host nation fails to provide them. No one commented on the proposal. (Note: Use of an inspecting pS's own USNATO 00000316 002 OF 004 helicopter is permitted. End Note.) ¶5. (C) During the afternoon CFE meeting, Canada returned to Ukraine's refusal to allow the use of GPS, again noting that Allies do not have a common position on how to address this issue in comments on inspection reports. Denmark echoed Canada's concern and suggested that Allies coordinate positions on digital cameras and formulate a complete list of such issues. (Note: On the margins, Canada also spoke at length on the need to resolve a number of outstanding implementation issues that will need immediate attention in the event that NATO and Russia come to agreement on provisional application of ACFE. End note.) ¶6. (C) France (LTC Payan) said that it supported the primacy of the VCC and did not support the idea of an open mandate. The U.S. rep (Meyer) restated U.S. points per reftel--namely, that the U.S. sees the VCC as the primary forum in which Allies should raise issues of concern and take decisions regarding implementation of existing arms control agreements; that when called upon, experts have supported the VCC. Meyer noted that, while the U.S. agreed that last year's work was productive, that work was based on a specific tasking from the VCC. Finally, Meyer noted that Allies should consider the implications of reviewing work already under consideration in Vienna. He cautioned that different work rhythms between the OSCE (weekly) and VCC (monthly) could preclude experts' timely contributions if their mandate were opened wider. ¶7. (C) Germany asked the Chairman if failure to reach agreement at this meeting would mean that the experts would have no mandate. The Chairman replied that elements of a mandate could be found in decision sheets (for standing tasks, such as quota allocation). It is the ad hoc work that is in question. He also cautioned that reaching agreement on the current guidelines for mission reports had taken months. ¶8. (C) Miggins noted that there seemed to remain a division in positions and finalized the discussion by announcing that the IS would publish proposed Terms of Reference protecting the core functions of ad hoc groups of expert while attempting to establish a way forward for future work. The TOR is to be discussed at the September VCC. ¶9. (C) Comment: While it is unclear where the IS plans to go with its TOR, the U.S. should be sensitive to any emerging Allied concerns that the debate over the ad hoc group of experts is interfering with actual work. Most Allies understand that, not withstanding recurring tasks such as annual deconfliction and scheduling, experts will not be able to support the VCC on ad hoc issues until the question of a new mandate is settled. On the margins, some have lamented that it is already too late for experts to prepare for the 2010 AIAM. It is possible that Allies could criticize the principal participants in the debate (Norway, Denmark, Canada, France, but particularly the U.S.) if they perceive a decrease in NATO participation and performance in the 2010 AIAM and link it to that debate. End Comment. -------------- ON IS-RUSSIAN INFORMAL AND EXERCISES -------------- ¶10. (C) VCC Chair (Mike Miggins) indicated that a member of the Russian delegation at NATO had asked to meet with him informally. Stating that he was speaking on instructions from the MFA, the Russian reported that Russia expects START to receive priority of U.S.-Russian attention until a follow-on agreement is completed. Among other questions, he asked whether Miggins thought a numerical solution on ceilings and the flank issue was possible. Miggins asked the Russian rep if Russia had a strategy for achieving consensus as stated in its Aide Memoire but received no answer. Finally, Miggins suggested that Russia would miss a prime opportunity to demonstrate good faith and transparency by notifying its combined exercise with Belarus (Zapad 2009). The Russian rep said the MFA understood the problem, but that the MOD was not interested in notifying below-threshold activities. USNATO 00000316 003 OF 004 ¶11. (C) The IS provided a briefing compiled by NATO analysts on the Russian and Belarusian military exercises for the summer of 2009 (KAVKAZ 2009, 29 Jun - 6 Jul 2009; ZAPAD 2009 8 Sep - 1 Oct 2009; and LADOGA 2009, 10 Aug - 28 SEP 2009.) According to the Chairman, the briefing, which seemed largely based on open-source material, was prepared at the request of Allies and had already been provided to the PC with no reaction,. On the basis of the intelligence provided by Allies, the briefing asserted that there is no indication that the number of personnel participating in KAVKAZ 2009 exceeded 8500, as stated by the Russian MOD, according to reports in the Russian press. In addition, ZAPAD 2009 appears to consist of a number of separate smaller, independent exercises, rather than one large activity under a single operational command. The briefing concluded that, despite relatively large numbers of personnel and equipment participating in these exercises, none seem to exceed VD99 thresholds for notification. ¶12. (C) Miggins reported that a Belarusian diplomat had noted that President Lukashenko had not yet agreed that Belarus would participate in ZAPAD 2009. Hungary reported that it plans to conduct an Open Skies flight over Russia during week 40, which coincides with "ZAPAD 2009". -------------- VD 99 VERIFICATION ACTIVITY AND SCHEDULING -------------- ¶13. (C) The UK reported that Tajikistan had conducted a VD99 specified area inspection of the UK from 17-19 June 2009. During this inspection, the UK provided briefings by all major commands in the specified area to include a briefing by CINC FLEET. While no other ally commented on this, the Chair (Miggins) asked the UK rep to clarify if he had said navy. Miggins noted that in the light of Russia's probing for naval CSBMs, while the decision to provide such a briefing is a national one, it is out of the norm for NATO. (Comment: The Chairman appeared not to realize that the U.K. lists "CINC FLEET NORTHWOOD (CINC FLEET)" in Table 1 of its VD99 data. End comment.) ¶14. (C) Greece reported that Russia had conducted a VD99 inspection in north-central Greece from June 30 - July 1, during which they expressed keen interest in the NATO HQ in Thessaloniki. ¶15. (C) Norway gave up a planned quota for an inspection in Kazakhstan, which Germany later claimed. The US announced it would not use its planned quota for Finland. -------------- CFE REPORTING AND SCHEDULING -------------- ¶16. (C) The IS reported that so far this year there have been 12 inspections by partners and 24 by NATO Allies. Russia has refused 10 notifications of intent to inspect this treaty year and has refused a total of 45 quota inspections since December 2007. ¶17. (C) France announced that during its CFE Section VIII specified area inspection in Kazakhstan, the host nation declared the Zenit Arms Factory a sensitive point. ¶18. (C) Allies reported the following Changes: -- Norway's inspection in Moldova--from Time Block (TB) 28 to TB 27. -- Norway's inspection in Ukraine--from TB 33 to TB 35. -- U.S. inspection in Ukraine (flank)--from TB 27 to TB 48; - U.S. inspection in Ukraine (paid)--from TB 33 to TB 27 -------------- AOB--VCC CHAIR RETIRING -------------- USNATO 00000316 004 OF 004 ¶19. (SBU) Under Any Other Business, Miggins announced that this would be his final VCC after 14 years on NATO IS. He introduced his replacement, Dr. Fred C. "Chuck" Parker, USMA 68, a Ph.D. in history from Georgetown University and member of the original U.S. CFE negotiating team. ¶20. (C) The Czech Republic (Kovacs) complained Ukraine had still not paid (as of 1 March) its bill from an Open Skies mission conducted June 2008. Slovakia and Hungary have had the same experience. The Czech Republic noted that there has been reduced Ukrainian arms control activity across the board. ¶21. (SBU) NATO IS requested that nations nominate more students for upcoming Oberammergau courses, which will have to be cancelled without more subscription. NATO School will conduct a review in the fall and cut course offerings if necessary. ¶22. (SBU) The next VCC will be held September 21 (Mon). The following dates are proposed for the fall: -- Oct 9 (Fri): Experts to focus on training; -- Nov 17 (Tue): Deconfliction. (Note: Allies will decide next meeting whether they expect to need two days for deconfliction. End note.) -- Dec 17 (Thu): Morning experts deconfliction followed by an afternoon VCC. DAALDER