NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL MEETING, JULY 15, 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 USNATO 000311 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2019 TAGS: PREL NATO EWWT MARR MOPS AF PK RS TZ XW SUBJECT: NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL MEETING, JULY 15, 2009 REF: USNATO 305 Classified By: A/PolAd A. "Hoot" Baez. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C/NF) Summary of the July 15 meeting of the North Atlantic Council: -- AFGHANISTAN: Allies asked for a strategic assessment of the impact of the ongoing operation in Helmand province, particularly in light of the increasingly heavy casualties NATO forces are taking. The UK noted the firestorm in the UK press over these casualties, stressing the need for better Strategic Communications in order to answer key questions raised by the press and the public. The Canadian PermRep asked for recommendations to be made on how ISAF could augment its economic "footprint" in Afghanistan, including through increased local procurement. (Note: The discussion on the deployment of NATO AWACS was reported reftel.) -- PAKISTAN: The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee reported on his recent trip to Pakistan. -- THE 2010-2014 MEDIUM TERM RESOURCE PLAN: Allies were unable to reach agreement on the 2010 budget ceilings for the NATO Security Investment Program (NSIP) and the military budget headquarters. The UK suggested that the Alliance should lower its ambitions, particularly given the current global financial crisis. -- COUNTER-PIRACY: The Deputy Secretary General said the NATO International Staff (IS) met last week with Tanzanian officials in order to begin discussions on the establishment of an agreement for the transfer and detention of captured pirates. The IS will continue these discussions with Tanzania and other regional states. Turkey and Greece reported on their bilateral contributions to regional capacity building. -- IRAQ: The NATO-Iraq agreement that would provide a long-term legal framework for the continuation of the NATO Training Mission-Iraq was distributed to Allies for final approval. END SUMMARY. Afghanistan -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Discontent with the Operations Update: Despite the high casualty rates suffered by Allies during the previous week, Deputy Assistant Director of Operations (International Military Staff) RADM Moreno gave a dry briefing noting that insurgent activity levels in Regional Commands South and East were elevated, but consistent with recent weeks. Dutch PermRep Schaper asked, "In a week with strongly alarming increases in ISAF casualties, how can we be told that insurgent activity is 'constant'" The Canadian, Romanian, UK, and U.S. PermReps argued for a rapid strategic assessment USNATO 00000311 002 OF 004 of the impact of the current operation in Helmand province. UK PermRep Eldon said that General McChrystal, the Commander of NATO's ISAF force in Afghanistan, was likely the best source of information at this early stage of the operation, suggesting that McChrystal should brief the Council by video conference from Kabul as soon as possible. (Note: McChrystal and SACEUR, Admiral Stavridis, have since been scheduled to brief the July 22 NAC by video teleconference from Kabul.) PermReps also wanted to know why insurgent activity had spiked ) whether in reaction to additional ISAF forces patrolling deeper into insurgent-controlled territory or another cause. ¶3. (C/NF) UK Notes Debate Back Home, Urges StratCom Focus: Eldon drew PermReps' attention to the media storm the recent casualties created in the UK press. He noted that recent public opinion polls had shown an increase in British public support for the forces serving in Afghanistan, but stressed that this support was focused on "the forces"--implying the support was not for the actual mission. He also said that the increase in support was likely the result of a "rally 'round the flag" effect created by the recent casualties. As a result, he said that retaining public support would require good answers on why NATO was in Afghanistan, for how long, and what the indicators of success would be. Stressing the importance of Strategic Communications, Eldon urged Allies to look again at the NATO Spokesman's paper on how to improve the Alliance's Strategic Communications. ¶4. (C/REL ISAF) ISAF's Economic Footprint: The Canadian PermRep--supported by the U.S., UK, and Iceland--called for follow-up work to the June 29-30 Reinforced Economic Committee Conference on Afghanistan. He said the conference had produced a useful set of indicators of ISAF's positive influence on the legal Afghan economy. He urged the Private Office to task the International Staff to provide some concrete recommendations on how ISAF could augment its economic "footprint," such as through more local procurement. ¶5. (C/REL ISAF) AWACS: The PermReps' discussion on AWACS deployments were reported reftel. CMC Visit to Pakistan -------------- ¶6. (C/REL ISAF) The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee (CMC) briefed PermReps on his recent trip to Pakistan, noting that he had been "treated well" by his hosts. He said the Pakistani military was fully engaged in the North-West Frontier, with 140,000 troops arrayed against insurgents. He reported that the operation in Swat was complete and that Islamabad was trying to convince nearly two million displaced persons to return home, including through monetary and housing reconstruction incentives. CMC characterized Pakistan Military positions in North and South Waziristan as "controlling all ways in and out," but emphasized that the Pakistanis prefer not to launch a large land operation similar to Swat. He said that they would rather play off USNATO 00000311 003 OF 004 militant commanders against the primary insurgent target, Baitullah Mehsud. The Pakistan Military expects a maximum of 500,000 displaced persons from upcoming Waziristan operations. Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Kayani reportedly told the CMC that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence was "reasonably under control," but recognized that splinter groups might still support the Taliban and other militants. CMC said that his hosts had expressed concerns that ISAF operations undertaken by the additional international troops that are flowing into Afghanistan's south and east might cause insurgents to flee across the border into Pakistan. CMC added that Pakistan was looking to the international community -- including NATO as its political engagement with Pakistan increases -- to serve as a third-party moderator to improving India-Pakistan relations. At the same time, he noted that Islamabad was "very jealous" of its sovereignty. NSIP AND MILITARY BUDGETS: AMBITIONS OUTSTRIP RESOURCES -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C/REL NATO) THE 2010-2014 MEDIUM TERM RESOURCE PLAN: Nations were unable to reach agreement on the 2010 budget ceilings for the NATO Security Investment Program (NSIP) and the military budget headquarters. Most nations were able to support the higher figures for the two budgets (Euros 653.3 million for NSIP and Euros 544.5 million for the Headquarters O and M),however, six nations (including the UK, FR, NL, DK) insisted on maintaining a lower NSIP ceiling of Euros 640.5 million and a five percent cut to the military headquarters O and M budget (Euros 519.5 million). ¶8. (C/REL NATO) The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee stressed that the gap between the Alliance's ambition and its budget was only getting larger. He said that lower budget figures could seriously impact the Alliance's ability to achieve its ambitions, including in areas such as outreach and exercises. Turkey led those arguing for higher budget ceilings, noting that current operations were not the only thing the Alliance is about. In response, the UK said that--particularly in the current financial situation--larger budget figures were unreasonable and the Alliance should instead look seriously at lowering its level of ambition. He stressed the need to "prioritize." He also said that the mechanisms by which NSIP works were inadequate, arguing for the need to move away from the "1984 arrangements" and the "first-come, first-served" principle. The Private Office will attempt to resolve the dispute over the next week by negotiating with the nations involved. Counter-Piracy -------------- ¶9. (C) The Deputy Secretary General said the NATO International Staff (IS) met with officials from the Tanzanian Embassy in Brussels to discuss the establishment of an agreement for the transfer and detention of captured pirates. During the discussions, the Tanzanians had stressed that there would be no solution to the piracy issue until the USNATO 00000311 004 OF 004 root causes of piracy were addressed. IS officials will soon travel to Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, and the Seychelles for further discussions on this topic. ¶10. (C) Turkey called for NATO to get involved in regional capacity building to address the root causes of piracy. In this regard, Turkey reported that it had decided to donate several coast guard vessels to Kenya and was considering providing coast guard training to regional states, including Kenya, Djibouti, and Yemen. Greece said it was considering providing similar training and--given developments within Somalia--called on NATO Military Authorities to monitor for links between piracy and radical elements. Iraq -------------- ¶11. (C/NF) The Deputy Secretary General said that Allies had been asked to approve the draft NATO-Iraq Long-Term Agreement (LTA) on the status of the NATO Training Mission-Iraq. He said it already had the provisional approval of PM Maliki and the Iraqi Council of Ministers. Once the NAC approved the document, NATO would invite the Iraqi defense minister to come to Brussels to sign the agreement, possibly as early as next week. In response to concerns raised by Turkey, the Deputy Secretary General said that the letter of invitation to the Defense Minister would highlight Allied concerns. The Deputy Secretary General noted that the NATO Legal Advisor had reviewed the document and concluded that it provided sufficient protection to NATO personnel arrested in Iraq. He also recalled a letter from Iraqi President Talabani in which Talabani had guaranteed due process in accordance with Iraqi laws and those of the sending nations. DAALDER