NATO-RUSSIA: ALLIES DIFFER ON RE-ENGAGEMENT, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USNATO 000303

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2019
TAGS: NATO PREL RS GG UP
SUBJECT: NATO-RUSSIA: ALLIES DIFFER ON RE-ENGAGEMENT, BUT
NOT IN PUBLIC

Classified By: Ambassador Ivo Daalder
for reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: NATO Allies are united that PermReps should
use the July 22 meeting of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC)to
indicate to Russia that NATO is willing to engage across the
entire spectrum of issues, but that Russia must also specify
in what areas it would like to cooperate. Regardless of the
outcome of the NRC meeting, the Allies are likely to disagree
in subsequent internal discussions on the next steps. Several
vocal Allies are already in favor of restarting all NRC
working groups, allegedly to properly examine the scope for
possible future areas of cooperation. Others remain
determined that work should only follow once there is NRC
agreement to cooperate on a particular issue. Unless
instructed otherwise, USNATO, in addition to underlining the
necessity to return to the topic of NRC reform, will continue
to push for the practical approach that substance should
precede process. End Summary

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Allied working-level talks highlight divisions
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2. (C) NATO Allies have used the period since the June 27
Corfu ministerial to consult extensively on the next steps in
engaging Russia. Allies agree that the NRC meeting in Corfu
had three outcomes: A) Agreement to continue work on
reforming the NRC; B) Agreement to resume military to
military cooperation in specific areas (Afghanistan,
counter-terrorism, naval cooperation including search and
rescue at sea, missile defense, and exchange of views on
possible mutually beneficial cooperation on counter piracy)
and; C) Agreement that there should be more high level
political dialogue through the NRC. However, regardless of
the unanimity on these general outcomes of Corfu, there are
clear divisions on next steps. Several nations (led by
Germany and Italy) want an immediate resumption of all
bureaucratic working group activity, while others (led by the
U.S. and Canada) want to develop more effective NRC than
before, in areas where Russia indicates a clear interest.
Ambassador Daalder's discussions with key PermReps on this
issue led to a united Allied line during a July 14
working-level meeting with Russia. In that meeting, the U.S.
made the following points, which were explicitly endorsed by
several Allies, including Germany and Italy:

-- The members of the NRC, having already decided at Corfu
that we will restart mil-mil cooperation, should use the
upcoming NRC Ambassadorial to explore what areas we should
focus on next.

-- We look forward to a substantive discussion and are
particularly interested in hearing Russia,s thoughts on
where we should cooperate.

-- We believethat this approach would direct further
NATO-Russia cooperation in a practical way, with mutual
benefit for both the Allies and Russia.

-- Committees should look forward to hearing from the NRC
Ambassadorial on the direction of our work together.

-- This approach is separate to the Corfu ministerial tasking
on reforming the NRC. We should swiftly move to address that
discussion to reform the NRC in a meaningful way that will
make it a more functional and efficient vehicle for
NATO-Russia cooperation.


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Ambassadors fix the symptoms, but only temporarily
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3. (C) An informal closed-door meeting of NATO PermReps on
July 14 began with a clear split between those who wanted to
restart all of the NRC working groups and subsidiary bodies

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and those who wanted a clearer sense of what kinds of
cooperation with Russia are possible. Ambassador Daalder,
building on a series of private conversations with Italy,
Norway, Germany, Lithuania, Poland, France, and Turkey, won
consensus for a compromise along the following lines: At the
July 22 Ambassadorial-level meting of the NRC, NATO will make
it clear to Russia that it is willing to engage across the
entire spectrum of issues, while emphasizing that the ball is
in Russia's court to identify to NATO the issues on which it
wants to engage. Once these areas of possible cooperation
have been identified, the NRC can decide to activate an
existing working group or create a new one to pursue the way
ahead in detail.


4. (C) The discussion, however, made clear that the current
consensus is likely to last only until July 22. The German
and Italian-led faction believe that Russia will request a
comprehensive re-engagement of cooperation leading to a
resumption of NRC activities using the same modalities that
were in place prior to the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict.
Following the NRC Ambassadorial France and Germany, with
likely support from Italy, Norway, and Spain, plan to insist
that all NRC working groups restart their work, if only to
determine whether there is potential for cooperation with
Russia on the issues within each group's purview. Many of
these nations are intent on using this approach to
politically signal a return to a status quo ante NATO
relationship with Russia. On the other hand, more skeptical
countries (the most skeptical of which is Lithuania),
advocate that working groups should meet only after there has
been an agreement at the NRC or PrepCom to cooperate on a
particular issue.

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Russian levels of engagement
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5. (C) In contrast to the hand wringing of Allies on this
issue, most of the Russian Mission to NATO appears to have
devoted little energy to following up on Corfu. In recent
months, they have privately indicated that Moscow has been
very slow to provide guidance. However, in a July 14 meeting
of the NRC Military Committee, the Russian MilRep indicated
willingness to begin cooperation on support to Afghanistan,
counternarcotics, counter terrorism, search and rescue, the
Cooperative Airspace Initiative, and high level visits. He
went on to say that further areas (including missile defense)
were dependent on the guidance he gets from Moscow following
the POTUS visit and the G-8 Summit.


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Comment
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6. (C) Substance should precede process. NATO should be
working towards reforming the NRC in a way that focuses on
practical cooperation rather than on reaffirming a failed NRC
structure that conducted meetings for meetings, sake. Unless
otherwise directed, USNATO will continue to make this point
within NATO discussions, and will push for substance driven,
engagement in practical areas of cooperation. USNATO will
also work to keep the Corfu-mandated NRC reform process on
the front burner.


7. (C) Though Russian Ambassador Rogozin is away from
Brussels, Ambassador Daalder is exploring the
PermRep-endorsed possibility of holding a conference call
with Rogozin, joined by the PermReps of Italy, Germany,
Canada, and Poland on the line. The aim would be to encourage
Rogozin to come to the July 22 meeting with specific
suggestions for cooperation, rather than just his typical
political bluster.
DAALDER