NATO-RUSSIA MINISTERIAL: RUSSIA CAUTIOUSLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000253

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2019
TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS GG RS UP
SUBJECT: NATO-RUSSIA MINISTERIAL: RUSSIA CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT DELIVERABLES

REF: A. USNATO 157

B. USNATO 191

C. USNATO 216

D. MOSCOW 1516

E. MOSCOW 1509

Classified By: Ambassador Ivo Daalder for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) SUMMERY: In a dramatic change in tone, the Russian
Mission to NATO fully engaged in the June 9-10
NATO-Russia Council (NRC) Preparatory Committee (Prep Com)
negotiations on deliverables for the NRC June 27 Foreign
Ministerial in Corfu. Prior to this week, the Russian
Mission had insisted that there was not enough time to
prepare deliverables for the Ministerial -- along similar
lines as reported by Embassy Moscow in reftels -- and only
half-heartedly negotiated in the Prep Com without
instructions from Moscow. Russian DCM Soltanovskiy told us
that Russian Ambassador Rogozin was more optimistic about
Ministerial deliverables after his consultations in Moscow.
The Russian MOD, Soltanovskiy said, was the bottleneck in the
Russian system and may still hinder this process.
Soltanovskiy told us that the consistently positive U.S.
message had helped the Russian Mission overcome Moscow's
suspicions in the wake of the NATO expulsions of two Russian
diplomats. He claimed that the Russian Mission appreciated
the deliverables from the draft paper (emailed to EUR/RPM)
for possible endorsement at the Ministerial, but said Moscow
would still press hard for language in the political chapeau
that had so far been unacceptable to all Allies. Regardless
of the outcome of these negotiations, the U.S. has united
Allies behind a positive vision for hard-headed engagement
and frank dialogue with Russia, and set-out a blueprint for
taking the NRC forward, which has been well-received by the
Russian Mission. Allies, particularly Germany, support the
proposed Ministerial deliverables and have played a positive
role in these negotiations. END SUMMARY.

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RUSSIA MISSION HAS A NEW ATTITUDE (AND INSTRUCTIONS)
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2. (C/NF) Up until this week, the Russian Mission had
expressed grave doubts about the prospects for approving any
deliverables for the June 27 NATO-Russia Council (NRC)
Ministerial meeting. However, during the June 9-10
negotiations, the tone of the Russian interventions improved
dramatically, with frequent references to "instructions from
Moscow." Russian DCM Soltanovskiy, the principal Russian
negotiator in the NRC Preparatory Committee (Prep Com),
actively and enthusiastically engaged in these negotiations
and even closed text on a few paragraphs. Soltanovskiy
attributed the change to Ambassador Rogozin's recent
consultations in Moscow and told us that Rogozin was more
optimistic about agreeing a package of deliverables for the
NRC Ministerial. Soltanovskiy said that after Rogozin's
"productive consultations" in Moscow, the Russian Mission now
believes it has the top cover to negotiate in good faith.
Soltanovskiy said Rogozin was in a "good mood" about the
prospects for Corfu.


3. (C/NF) Soltanovskiy claimed he personally had become
attached to the paper and thanked us for being the driving
force behind the positive spirit of this exercise. He
contended that the consistent U.S. message had been
critical in overcoming Moscow's suspicions following the NATO
expulsion of two Russian diplomats. Specifically,
Soltanovskiy said he was optimistic that NRC members could
agree the political green light to restart
military-to-military and civilian practical cooperation, as
well as a tasking to NRC Ambassadors to streamline the NRC
committee structure.

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RUSSIAN MOD STILL A BOTTLENECK
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4. (C/NF) Soltanovskiy said the Russian MOD had been the
bottleneck which had delayed instructions to the Mission.
"The MOD is in complete chaos at the moment and this could
still hinder our negotiations," Soltanovskiy told us
frankly. However, he said that the Russian Mission was
largely in agreement with the U.S. position on deliverables
but the sticking point would be on the political chapeau.
(Note: The U.S. is advocating a paper that focuses on
deliverables to reinvigorate NRC cooperation and dialogue
with little emphasis on a political chapeau. The Russian
Mission is pushing for a chapeau text that distorts founding
principles of NATO-Russia cooperation and that suggests
Allies should not have blocked NRC political dialogue during
the Georgia crisis. One example lies in the "indivisibility
of security" -- Russia seeks to limit this concept from the
whole Euro-Atlantic area to just NRC countries. This is a
non-starter for most Allies. End Note) Privately,
Soltanovskiy suggested that he would urge Moscow to show some
flexibility on the political chapeau issue.

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DELIVERABLES TO TAKE THE NRC FORWARD
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5. (C/NF) In April, USNATO developed and issued a
U.S./German/Czech non-paper (emailed to EUR/RPM and others in
the interagency),which set the tone and provided the
framework for negotiations on ministerial deliverables. The
paper currently being negotiated in the NRC for endorsement
by Ministers was intended to be a roadmap for taking the NRC
forward: it will officially restart mil-to-mil and other
practical cooperation and open a much franker and open NRC
dialogue. In addition, consensus is building for a
Ministerial tasking to streamline the NRC committee structure
making it more flexible to build cooperation on new areas of
mutual benefit, such as counter-piracy, Afghanistan, missile
defense, etc. Moreover, we would like the NRC to become a
confidence-building forum in which NATO and Russia could
regularly exchange information on military strategy,
exercises, and doctrine.

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ROGOZIN WANTS TO DRAG OUT THE COURTING PROCESS
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6. (C/NF) Ambassador Rogozin has suggested in the press that
the FM meeting in Corfu would be the first in a series of
high-level NRC stand-alone meetings this summer. He said
that Defense Ministers and CHODs should also meet. (Note: We
have tried to temper Russian expectations for additional
stand-alone NRC meetings, encouraging the Russian Mission to
fully take advantage of the June 27 FM meeting. End note.)


COMMENT
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7. (C/NF) Soltanovskiy now assesses a "50-50" chance for the
success of these negotiations. If NRC members cannot agree a
package of deliverables, however, it would delay, but not
derail, full NRC re-engagement. The U.S. is in a strong
position regardless of the outcome of the negotiations on
Ministerial deliverables. We moved Allies well beyond the
internecine squabbling on Russia policy that plagued us
during the December and March Foreign Ministerials, uniting
Allies behind a policy of hard-headed engagement with Russia.
The Russian Mission appreciates our forward-leaning
proposals on taking the NRC forward and our leadership in
providing a positive tenor to the NRC. Starting this week,
Russia began negotiating in good faith and pressure will
build for deliverables for the Ministerial. In the end, it
will come down to the political chapeau. We will coordinate
with Allies to maintain a unified message on the most
egregious Russian political text and present Russia with a
tough choice between a strong package of deliverables and its

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unrealistic political text.
DAALDER