TAKING THE NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL FORWARD IN STORMY

S E C R E T USNATO 000157 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2017 TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS GG RS SUBJECT: TAKING THE NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL FORWARD IN STORMY WEATHER Classified By: Ambassador Kurt Volker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: The Alliance has made great strides in overcoming internal divisions over Russia and Europes East leading to an emerging consensus on how to take NATO-Russia relations forward. USNATO is working with Germany and the Czech Republic on non-papers that provide a roadmap for re-engagement with Russia. We plan to circulate these non-papers prior to the April 29 NATO-Russia Council (NRC) Ambassadorial meeting with the intent of seeking approval by Ministers at the upcoming NRC Foreign Ministerial meeting (proposed for May 19). Russian pressure to cancel Partnership for Peace (PfP) exercises in Georgia will test the shaky emerging consensus within the Alliance on NATO-Russia. Moreover, Russian Ambassador Rogozin may slow down or reverse Russias stated goal of re-engagement in the NRC and seek to distort our proposals. That said, our strategic approach -- of seeking to cooperate with Russia in specific areas of common interest, while pushing back in areas where we disagree -- remains valid and serves as a basis in keeping NATO united, even when Russia seeks to pressure NATO, as it is doing with the PfP exercises. End summary. -------------- TIMELINE TO NATO-RUSSIA MINISTERIAL -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Allies have agreed to hold an NRC Foreign Ministerial before the June 11-12 NATO Defense Ministerial. The NATO Secretary General proposed May 19 for this ministerial in order to take advantage of the EU GARC (May 18-19) (Mission seeks Washington guidance for whether this date is acceptable to Secretary Clinton). In preparation for the Foreign Ministerial, we should re-assess what type of engagement with Russia we desire in the NRC. To this end, Post has brokered two non-papers on NRC reform with Germany (the leader of the pro-reengagement camp),and the Czech Republic (the leader of the Russia-skeptics camp). Both have been emailed to EUR/RPM. These two papers illuminate the way forward as follows: -- An "Allied-only non-paper" establishes principles on Allied discussions of Russia and reaffirms the inter-alliance understanding on pre-coordination. We believe it will lead to the development of a more coherent NATO policy towards Russia. It is intended to put to rest fear that some Allies (e.g., Germany) would block internal discussions about Russia prior to NRC meetings. -- An "NRC non-paper," intended for all NRC members, including Russia, seeks to set priorities (Afghanistan, disarmament, arms control, non-proliferation counter-terrorism, and counter-piracy) and restructure the NRCs committees to give greater flexibility to tackle agreed priorities. ¶3. (S/NF) NRC timeline of events: -- by April 23 - Czech Republic, Germany, and the U.S. will circulate NRC and Allied only non-papers. -- April 29 - NRC Ambassadors will discuss "taking the NRC forward." Czech, German and U.S. Perm Reps will present our NRC non-paper. Other Allies and Russia are also preparing non-papers for this meeting. -- May 7 NRC Chiefs of Defense (CHODs) - canceled by Russian Military Representative Mazlov. Mazlov said today (April 21) Russia wants NRC Foreign Ministers to give political guidance to the military side before CHODs meet to discuss mil-mil relations. -- May 19 (proposed) - NRC Foreign Ministerial - we will seek approval for the NRC non-paper from Ministers. In parallel, we will seek NAC approval of the Allied-only non-paper. -------------- COMMENT - NRC DESIGNED TO WEATHER THE STORM -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) NATO needs to walk a steady line of practical cooperation with Russia where possible, while being free to raise areas of disagreement with Russia. It is especially important to maintain this line as Russia seeks to raise the pressure on NATO. Allies instinctively divide into two camps in the face of Russian pressure: the new Allies will be quick to abandon NRC re-engagement to penalize bad behavior, while the older Allies try to assuage every Russian tantrum, even if the Russian demands are unreasonable. We have worked to position the U.S. between these two groups and draw Allies closer together toward a single, consensus policy. Specifically, we are seeking to position NATO to pursue mutually beneficial cooperation without retreating from NATOs core values or shrinking in the face of Russian pressure. Russian demands to cancel PfP exercises (reported septel) are a test of the fragile consensus on NATOs nascent policy towards Russia and the East. NATO should go forward with the PfP exercises, while simultaneously advancing our re-engagement in the NRC. Though turbulent in the short-term, this combination of openness and cooperation on the one hand, and consistency and push-back on the other, offers the best chance of establishing a new, realistic NATO-Russia relationship that serves our wider, long-term interests in securing a Europe whole, free, and at peace. End Comment. VOLKER