SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CASEY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000107 SIPDIS H PASS TO CODEL CASEY; EUR/PGI FOR JAMES KUYKENDALL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OREP AMGT ASEC AFIN NATO BE SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CASEY The following is the text of a scenesetter provided by Ambassador Volker to CODEL Casey in advance of their trip to Brussels to attend the Brussels Forum. It is best viewed in memorandum format. Begin text: MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF THE SENATE AND HOUSE DELEGATIONS FROM: Amb. Kurt Volker, USNATO SUBJECT: Brussels Forum: Lay of the Land in Europe and NATO Welcome to Brussels, and to NATO! Your visit comes at a time of extraordinary challenge for our transatlantic community, but also a time of extraordinary opportunity. Our task is nothing short of re-building the transatlantic relationship - across the board - for a new era. -------------- Europe's Side of the Global Everything-Crisis -------------- Like us, Europe is buffeted by the financial crisis, risky bailouts, energy disruptions, climate change, and worried about the Middle East, Iran, Pakistan and more. European leaders meet frequently, but are often divided in their approaches and reluctant to take transformational decisions. We risk seeing a re-nationalization of economic policy, trade protectionism, and a shedding of costly commitments, whether in cutting greenhouse gas emissions or defense spending. One key role America has played in the past, and needs to play again today, is to remind Europeans of the importance of European unity - for Europe and the United States. Another is for America to lead by example, yet in a way that consults and brings European governments to a higher common denominator. As bad as the times are, President Obama's attendance at the back-to-back NATO and U.S.-EU Summits - just two weeks away - is an opportunity to rally our community and build common action. -------------- Rebuilding NATO -------------- NATO is a modern paradox. It has never been more engaged operationally than today - in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Iraq, the Mediterranean, the Horn of Africa. Our nations' leaders still turn to NATO to provide solutions to today's security problems, wherever they may come from. Yet NATO suffers from international divisions and a lack of strong European political will and commitment to these very operations. A host of factors have taken their toll: - Years of divisions over Iraq, Guantanamo, and more; - European preference for coordinating policy in the EU instead of NATO; - Differing American and European threat perceptions after September 11; - European public aversion to use of military force in almost any circumstances; - A vast divide within Europe over how to deal with an aggressive Russia; and - Weak European defense spending, resulting in divergent U.S. and European defense capabilities. Still, the United States and Europe need NATO. We form a single transatlantic community based on shared democratic values. We face the same challenges in the world, and can only deal with them effectively if we deal with them together. Re-building NATO will require us to forge a new consensus on four baskets of issues: - Afghanistan/Pakistan; - Russia and the East; - the Balkans; and - NATO's future. In addition, French President Sarkozy's decision to USNATO 00000107 002 OF 003 reintegrate France into NATO's military structure should reinforce Europe's commitment to our transatlantic community. -------------- Afghanistan/Pakistan -------------- Allies have become increasingly concerned over the situation in Afghanistan. They therefore welcome President Obama's Strategic Review, and appreciate the Administration's determination to consult with Allies and bring their thinking on board. Vice President Biden, Secretaries Clinton and Gates, and SACEUR Craddock and CENTCOM Commander Petraeus have all engaged Allies recently on Afghanistan. The North Atlantic Council went to Afghanistan on March 16-18. Special Representative Holbrooke will meet with Allies on March 23. While we do not know the conclusions from the Strategic Review, some key factors will clearly shape our thinking: - We need to see this as a regional challenge. Not Afghanistan alone, but also with Pakistan and the wider region, including Russia, India, China and Iran. - This is not simply a military challenge, so military efforts alone will not succeed. We need an integrated civil-mil strategy, with the resources to back it up. - In the long-term, Afghanistan needs to be able to provide for its own security. We therefore need to provide trainers and funding to strengthen the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police. - The elections to be held in August are critical, and we need to do all we can to provide security, expertise, and funding to help make them a success. We hope and expect that the results of the U.S. strategy review will inform and drive a change in NATO's own approach to the issue. In particular, we hope that NATO can: - Fill out the election security force (2 more battalions) - Fill out all the Afghan Army training teams (14 teams) - Put money into the Afghan National Army Trust Fund; and - Add new police training teams to speed Afghan police development. -------------- Russia and the East -------------- Having gotten used to the Russia of the 1990's, Europe is now unsure how to deal with the more authoritarian and assertive Russia of today. These differences came to a boil in the aftermath of the war in Georgia last August. Some Allies seek a stable relationship with Russia to the seeming exclusion of all else; others focus on the need to support democratic reformers in the east and speak plainly about aggressive Russian policies; still others want to focus NATO on its core mission of collective defense at home. The only way to reach a NATO consensus is to address all of these interests at once. Thanks to Secretary Clinton's meetings at NATO on March 5, the following elements are now at the heart of an emerging - though still fragile - NATO consensus: - NATO will continue to work toward a Europe whole, free and at peace; - Article 5 collective defense remains at the heart of the Alliance; - We will continue to support reform in Europe's East, including using the NATO-Ukraine and NATO-Georgia Commissions to work toward NATO membership; - We will engage Russia in dialogue through the NATO-Russia Council, including at Ministerial levels, in order to build practical cooperation in key areas; and - We will at the same time use our dialogue with Russia to raise areas where we have fundamental differences, including over Georgia and the CFE Treaty. USNATO 00000107 003 OF 003 -------------- The Balkans -------------- While NATO grapples with policies on Afghanistan and Russia, it cannot afford to drop the ball in the Balkans. We have made substantial progress since ending ethnic cleansing in the 1990's. Romania and Bulgaria are members of both NATO and the EU, and Croatia is well on its way. But for the others in the region, we must continue to hold out the prospect of NATO and EU membership, while insisting on democratic and market reforms. -------------- NATO's Future -------------- NATO is due to produce a "Declaration on Alliance Security" at the April Summit, a first attempt to define NATO's role in meeting future security challenges, and a precursor to drafting a new "Strategic Concept" over the coming year. -------------- New Secretary General - Reforming NATO -------------- The selection of the next NATO Secretary General will also be important in charting NATO's future course. Jaap de Hoop Scheffer's term expires on July 31, 2009. As we select a new Secretary General, we need to explicitly empower him or her with the CEO authorities needed to shift budgets and people to meet changing NATO priorities. It is an exciting and critical time at NATO. I look forward to discussing these and other issues with you. Until then, please let me know if my staff or I can be of any assistance. ANDRUSYSZYN