MEETING WITH IAEA TO DEMO URANIUM DATABASE AND

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000574 NOFORN SIPDIS ISN/RA MONGIELLO; NA-241 O'CONNOR; LLNL HUTCHEON; AFTAC FOR CHARLES BRENNAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2034 TAGS: AORC KNNP IAEA ENRG TRGY SUBJECT: MEETING WITH IAEA TO DEMO URANIUM DATABASE AND IDAVE SEARCH ENGINE Classified By: AMBASSADOR GLYN DAVIES FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (S//NF) Summary: At a December 9 meeting, IAEA Deputy Director General for Safeguards (DDG) Heinonen reaffirmed the IAEA's long-term willingness to participate with the U.S. in a joint effort to maintain a database of global signatures of uranium yellowcake (and other forms of uranium). Representatives from the Departments of State and Energy and Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL),accompanied by MsnOffs, met with Heinonen to demonstrate the uranium sourcing database and accompanying internet-based search engine, the Discriminate Analysis Verification Engine (iDAVE). The demo, presented by LLNL's Ian Hutcheon and Martin Robel, consisted of a walk-through of how the iDAVE database works followed by a discussion of future cooperation between the IAEA and LLNL on sample analysis and data interpretation. Responding to Heinonen's positive reaction to the presentation, DepCounselor encouraged the IAEA to maximize the number of samples taken during safeguards inspections (especially in locales such as Iran, Syria, and other states in which the U.S. would not otherwise have data) and indicated a U.S. willingness to fund analysis of as many samples as the IAEA is able to collect. Next steps in the joint project will be a return visit by LLNL experts in January/February 2010 timeframe to establish IAEA connectivity so that select safeguards inspectors will be able to query iDave directly. Finally, Heinonen reaffirmed his previous request to treat with discretion the knowledge of the close U.S.-IAEA collaboration on this database, given that the Agency is providing the USG with information on the origins of samples that it would not share with other member states. End Summary -------------- iDAVE - On the Brink of Going Live -------------- ¶2. (S//NF) During the December 9 meeting with Olli Heinonen and Maxim Penkin, LLNL's Ian Hutcheon opened by noting that, of the approximately 130 samples the IAEA has sent to LLNL since January 2007, roughly two-thirds have been analyzed and the results returned to the Agency. In return, the IAEA has provided source location information for roughly half of the 130 samples. The internet-based search engine which operates on the uranium sourcing database, iDAVE, should be ready to 'go live' within four-to-eight weeks, or before the end of February 2010, Hutcheon said. By that time the IAEA will be sent one-time password tokens from LLNL to be able to access the database system from their IAEA computers. LLNL experts explained that the server had not yet been physically transferred to its new location at LLNL or connected to LLNL's "Blue" network for secure, unclassified communication. LLNL also needs to complete the installation of new web-based protocols to allow VPN access to the Blue network. These two actions are expected to take place before the end of January 2010. -------------- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF iDAVE -------------- ¶3. (S//NF) During the meeting with DDG Heinonen, LLNL gave a live presentation of iDAVE, using an internet connection to the iDAVE server, to demonstrate how one would use the search engine to derive sourcing information about uranium ore concentrate, or other uranium bearing, samples. During the presentation, there was discussion of some of the technical aspects of the database. For example, one issue concerned the potential difference between the point of origin and point of colleQon of samples that the IAEA sends to LLNL for analysis. Inspectors cannot always know that samples found in a particular facility originated in that location. Nonetheless, the IAEA reaffirmed that it tries to send as much information as possible about the origin of the samples to LLNL. In (rare) cases where the IAEA simply does not have enough information to determine the point of origin or other useful information about a sample, it will not send that sample to LLNL for analysis. ¶4. (S//NF) The discussion also covered the basic operating principles of iDAVE, which currently uses 16 parameters common to all samples in the database. While this is a relatively small number (the IAEA expects there to be at least 60 parameters for samples measured since 2007),it was noted that the number of parameters will grow as additional analyses of samples already in the database are completed by the participating DOE laboratories and the number of samples in the database gets larger. (Note: There are approximately 2,000 samples from other sources in addition to those provided by the IAEA currently in the database. End Note.) The technical discussion also addressed the various types of information that iDAVE will be capable of providing, i.e., not only country or facility of origin but also descriptive statistics relating to the certainty with which the assignment of a source location is made. ¶5. (S//NF) During the presentation, the IAEA raised a question concerning the ability of iDAVE to return information concerning the number of samples in the database with a specific set of characteristics in addition to the normal query based on specific measurements of a sample to find point of origin matches. LLNL replied that while iDAVE does not currently provide this information, it would be relatively simple to add the option to generate this information in the next version of iDAVE. It is likely that the IAEA will be using the latter type of query once access is granted. -------------- -- POTENTIAL COOPERATION WITH AUSTRALIA AND CANADA -------------- -- ¶6. (S//NF) During the discussion, Senior Safeguards Analyst Maxim Penkin noted that there is potential for cooperation with Canada and Australia to study how trace elements behave during the process of converting uranium ore to UF6. He explained that the amount of data the IAEA expects to gain from Australia and Canada could be quite large and should therefore be entered into the database. LLNL and Msnoffs agreed that this would be a very good idea. (Comment: LLNL/DOE has a current project with the Australian National Safeguards Office to provide similar information for U-ore of Australian origin.) -------------- FOLLOW-UP TECHNICAL EXPERTS DISCUSSION -------------- ¶7. (S//NF) Following the initial briefing to DDG Heinonen, a technical experts discussion took place with Penkin, IAEA Safeguards Analyst Ke Zhao, Hutcheon, Robel, MsnOff and Washington rep to review the details of iDAVE. LLNL walked through the various steps to access the iDAVE search engine and answered the IAEA's questions. One issue that continually arose concerned the IAEA's access to the raw data in the database. LLNL reiterated that at this juncture, the strong U.S. preference is to maintain one copy of the actual data at LLNL to ensure additions to the data are uniform. Further technical questions concerned how samples are grouped together when an analysis is performed by iDAVE, and whether or not multiple samples can be analyzed at one time. LLNL attempted to log in to the database using an IAEA computer (the previous demonstration was performed using an LLNL laptop computer). However, there were technical difficulties, possibly related to a firewall at the IAEA, which will have to be resolved at LLNL. Ian Hutcheon and/or Martin Robel agreed to return to Vienna before the end of February to provide an additional tutorial once the web-based version of iDAVE is fully operational and access is provided to the IAEA. The meeting concluded with a discussion of next steps. -------------- NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶8. (S//NF) At the conclusion of the meeting with Heinonen, the issue of maximizing IAEA sample-taking was discussed in light of Heinonen's strong support for continued collaboration on the database. DepCounselor reiterated that samples of uranium from states of critical safeguards interest are of particularly high value, given that the U.S. does not generally have other means for collecting such data from those states. DepCounselor urged the IAEA to take as many such samples as possible and indicated U.S. willingness to undertake and fund the requisite analysis. Heinonen noted that the IAEA is beginning to receive an increasing number of samples from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which could help populate the database and provide useful information. Maxim Penkin further noted that the majority of the IAEA's current samples are from Iran. (Comment: All parties recognized that samples from critical countries (i.e. Iran, DPRK, Syria) are of major benefit to the value of the database and further collections will continue to be a vital part of this project. End comment.) DAVIES