IAEA: THE AMANO TRANSITION, SITREP 1

UNCLAS UNVIE VIENNA 000563 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR T, S/SANAC, IO, AND ISN DOE FOR S2, NA-20, NE-6 NSC FOR SCHEINMAN, HOLGATE, CONNERY NRC FOR OIP DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP JP AR SUBJECT: IAEA: THE AMANO TRANSITION, SITREP 1 REF: A. UNVIE 322 ¶B. UNVIE 478 ¶C. UNVIE 536 ¶D. UNVIE 556 ¶1. (U) UNVIE will report in weekly to bi-weekly installments, or as events warrant, on the personnel and management transition at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) under its new Director General. This is the first telegram in a series that will extend into early 2010. ¶2. (SBU) Director General (DG) Yukiya Amano confronts the opportunity to bring about a holistic change of upper management at the IAEA and the challenge as he does so of juggling the IAEA's multiple constituencies. He has the prerogative to switch out the Agency's six deputy directors general (DDG) and a similar number of other key officials (ref A),but also, ultimately, anyone else in the Secretariat whom he sees fit to reassign for the duration of their existing contracts. Initial signs are that he will act decisively, not to conduct a rapid wholesale turnover but to redirect the Agency -- in a manner the USG will likely find agreeable. Moreover, he promises us "no surprises" while he keeps his decision-making close to the vest so as to not create false expectations among those jockeying for positions. ¶3. (SBU) As reported ref C para 5, Amano will keep DDGs David Waller (Management) and Olli Heinonen (Safeguards) in place for an initial period (through June 2012 in the case of Heinonen, we are told). Amano expect to hear carping over these decisions from various quarters for various reasons, but Amano sees continuity in these two key functions as imperative. For the remaining four DDG positions, the advice of ADG/EXPO Head Vilmos Cserveny (whom Amano is retaining) is to build a team of people to work with over a seven-year duration (corresponding to the Agency's rotation policy and approximating a two-term tenure for the DG himself). Piecing together a mosaic, Amano must balance the technical expertise and broad sector experience each position demands, e.g., from a nuclear regulatory, power plant, research, or economic development background, with the Agency's crying need for coordination, management and leadership and the imperatives of geographic and gender balance. Advanced nuclear nations including the P5, medium industrial powers, and states with 
limited nuclear or radiological applications all merit representation. The G-77 will seek "adequate" representation among senior posts. ¶4. (SBU) Against this background, Amano indicated to Ambassador December 11 that identifying the next DDG for Safety and Security from a "responsible developed country" is a priority. He added that the eventual successor to Nuclear Energy DDG Sokolov would be another Russian, as reported in ref C para 5. ¶5. (SBU) Amano's first formal move signals that he indeed will take Agency management in a direction we favor. Having told A/S Brimmer it was an important signal that he, coming from an industrialized country, have a "developing country" national as chef de cabinet, Amano has offered the position to Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, whom Amano has known ten years. Embassy Buenos Aires has shared with us its positive assessment of Grossi, a former aide to OPCW Executive Director Rogelio Pfirter; Grossi was active in Vienna when Pfirter himself was considering a run for DG. Grossi is expected on board after the first of the year. Amano intends that Grossi focus on diplomacy and coordination between the Secretariat and Member States, not on daily operations. ¶6. (SBU) As previously reported, Amano brought one Japanese diplomat from Tokyo to serve as his Special Assistant for Management. Mission interactions thus far with the new incumbent, Satoshi Suzuki, have been business-like and effective. Amano said in recent meetings with U/S Tauscher and A/S Brimmer that Suzuki would be his person to initiate action and coordination in the Secretariat. Suzuki, meanwhile, tells us his most important initial role will be helping Amano to understand the institutional back story on decisions that are recommended to him. Separately, Mission has learned of another secondment from Japanese diplomatic ranks: our close contact on IAEA resource and management issues, Japanese Mission Second Secretary Shota Kamishima, will be attached to the Verification and Security Policy Coordination Office in EXPO starting in mid-December. ¶7. (SBU) With Amano in Africa this week we expect no further announcements. However, prior indications from the DG and those around him -- that the Safety/Security DDG position would turn over first -- appear to be borne out in his volunteering of detailed thinking on the matter to the Ambassador in their December 11 telcon. (Comment: Amano's characterization that the next incumbent should come from a "responsible developed country," consistent with his early September remark to the Ambassador on this issue, could be code for "France." End Comment). The two current Secretariat officials most talked about for the job in the halls of the Agency are Philippe Jamet (FR),Director of the Division of Nuclear Installation Safety, and Khammar Mrabit (Morocco),Head of Safety and Security Coordination. Msnoffs have enjoyed a frank and productive relationship with Mrabit for several years. As reported ref C, each could theoretically get a chance to serve as Acting DDG (in rotation with two other colleagues) if a gap were to ensue. Amano has not expressed himself to us on this level of operational detail, and we would not expect him to do so until making a public announcement of Taniguchi's departure. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: Two weeks into his tenure, DG Amano is in the phase of receiving introductory briefings from each department and becoming acquainted with the bureaucratic levers by which to steer the "aircraft carrier" that is the IAEA Secretariat. DCM's further conversation with Special Assistant Suzuki on December 15 affirmed our expectation that Amano will move not dramatically but deliberately to examine each senior personnel move and prepare his choices thoroughly, conscious of the various political lenses through which leading Member States and groups will assess each appointment. End Comment. DAVIES