IAEA/IRAN: BOARD MOVES TOWARD FIRST RESOLUTION

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000532 SIPDIS DEPT FOR P,T, S/SANAC, ISN, IO, ISN/RA, IO, T NSC FOR RYU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2019 TAGS: AORC IAEA KNNP IR SUBJECT: IAEA/IRAN: BOARD MOVES TOWARD FIRST RESOLUTION SINCE 2006, RUSSIA SUPPORTS WHILE CHINA UNINSTRUCTED Classified By: Ambassador Glyn T. Davies for reaons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (S) Summary: At a German-hosted P5 1 HOMs meeting November 24, Russia agreed to proceed with a Board of Governors resolution on Iran based on the German elements discussed in Brussels. In contrast to Russian flexibility, Chinese Ambassador Hu was still uninstructed and was surprised at the prospect of introducing a resolution as a P5 1 co-sponsored text. Still he committed to seek instructions by early November 24 whereupon the P5 1 could inform the DG and Board Chair and begin broader consultations with other influential Board members, including G-77 Chair Argentina and NAM Chair Egypt. We would not expect this to be consensus resolution as Cuba and Venezuela, which voted against the last Board resolution reporting Iran to the UNSC in February 2006, are likely to call a vote. Board members will need formal voting instructions but especially if the P5 1 remain united, there is nothing to preclude an outcome similar to the 2006 vote (27-3-5 abstain) with a handful of NAM abstentions or no votes. End Summary. ¶2. (S) Germany called a P5 1 meeting November 23 following up on PolDir agreement to work on a Board resolution based on the elements discussed in Brussels. Russian Governor Berdennikov confirmed Russia's agreement to support the German elements while China was still uninstructed. Chinese Ambassador Hu nevertheless participated in the P5 1 discussion as he did not have instructions to the contrary. Pressed by German Ambassador Ludeking, Hu committed to get an answer from Beijing by early November 24 as Germany is seeking to begin consultations with Board members to allow time for instructions. China was surprised that the resolution was being proposed as an E3 3 sponsored-text. Hu had been under the impression that it would be sponsored only by the E3, as in the past (i.e. before the P5 1 came into existence). Germany clarified that pursuant to PolDirs meeting in Brussels, the idea was to have the Group of 6 (G-6) as co-sponsors. ¶2. (S) In contrast to China, Russia seemed fully on board and flexible. Berdennikov supported the German elements/text as is and saw no reason to negotiate the elements that had been agreed in Brussels. French Ambassador Mangin also said �0A;France would refrain from making any substantive changes for the sake of unity. Ambassador Davies agreed to follow suit. Russia was similarly flexible as to the format of co-sponsorship, whether it be the E3 or the G-6, as Berdennikov noted was agreed in Brussels, or beyond the G-6. ¶3. (S) Most of the P5 1 discussion was about the format of consultations. Germany proposed that the G-6 lobby as a group, beginning early November 24 by informing ElBaradei and the Board Chair. (Note: Ambassador Davies had apprised ElBaradei of the prospect for a Board resolution November 20 after the PolDirs meeting. ElBaradei was not supportive as this would divide the Board, he claimed, and he preferred a non-binding P5 1 statement. End note) Russia suggested working through Board Chair Arshad (Malaysia) to arrange consultations with various groups but France, U.S. and Germany did not see Arshad as adding value and could not be assured of his neutrality. P5 1 Missions (pending China) agreed that the cosponsors would meet on November 24 with group chairs Argentina (G-77),Egypt (NAM) Canada (WEOG) and Sweden (EU) followed by influential Board members India, South Africa, Brazil and Pakistan, and hold any follow up meetings November 25. Given time constraints, Germany suggested the text could not be re-negotiated, but the G-6 text could reflect some of the input from consultations. Per Board rules, the text must be submitted 24-hours in advance of consideration at the Board session November 26 or 27. (Note: We expect the Board could begin the Iran agenda item late on November 26; though not necessarily desirable, debate can be suspended until the next day. End note). ¶4. (S) Consulting privately with the U.S. after the meeting, the E3 were not confident of getting China to co-sponsor. Ludeking speculated that Beijing may agree to vote in favor of the resolution but not to co-sponsor. If that is the case, Germany and France still preferred a resolution to a G-6 statement, as the latter has no real standing or effect. Given that co-sponsorship by the E3 alone would be interpreted as a step-backward (and would not include Russia) and an E3 2 -sponsored resolution would be "awkward," they suggested an ad hoc group of co-sponsors as a fallback - i.e. introduced by Germany and cosponsored by EU, U.S., like-minded plus Russia -- the key being to retain Russia as a cosponsor. ¶5. (S) Comment: While we are sympathetic to the view that China should not be allowed to hold the resolution process hostage, there is no guarantee Russia would agree to go it alone with the E3, U.S. and a broader group of like-minded. If Russia remains on board and China agrees (at a minimum) not to block a resolution, Mission recommends allowing the resolution effort to play itself out. This is especially true as other delegations, including NAM, are aware that a Board resolution is being discussed. A united front among the P5 1 certainly would help secure broader support and Russian support is indispensable to a resolution. Even with Russia and possibly China, however, we will still have to contend with NAM hard-liners and an unsupportive Board Chair and Director General. As with the last Board resolution in 2006, the key will be to isolate unredeemable NAM such as Cuba and Venezuela. Support from NAM Chair Egypt, Argentina, Brazil, India and South Africa would be instrumental, nearly all of which voted in favor of the 2006 referral of Iran to the UNSC (except South Africa which abstained at the time but has been more supportive in recent years.) DAVIES