IAEA/DG RACE: AMANO WINS NARROW VICTORY DUE TO ONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000318 SIPDIS DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN PLS PASS SECDEF TRAVEL TEAM FOR D(S) STEINBERG PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD DOE FOR NA-20 NSC FOR SCHEINMAN, CONNERY NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019 TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA SI SF BE SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: AMANO WINS NARROW VICTORY DUE TO ONE ABSTENTION REF: UNVIE 315 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: CDA Geoffrey R. Pyatt for reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Japanese DG candidate Yukiya Amano narrowly won the required two-thirds majority in a final "confidence" vote July 2. One abstention in the final tally (23 "Yes" 11 "No" and 1 abstention) lowered the margin for victory to 23 votes. This completes the "Selection Stage" of the DG election process. The Board will reconvene July 3 in open session for the "Appointment Stage" to make a formal appointment, hopefully by acclamation as has been the previous practice. The Brazilian DCM commented to us afterward that he thought all (including Brazil which voted for Minty) would want to treat the election now as "water under the bridge." That said, the rules of procedure allow for a further vote to be called in the Appointment Stage to confirm the result. The Japanese are taking nothing for granted, given rumors of Russian gripping prior to the vote, repeated by an unnamed EU diplomat to the press, that a narrow win would exacerbate North-South divisions. Meeting with a small group of core Amano supporters (U.S., Canada, Australia, France) after the vote, Japanese Ambassador-designate Nakane was not sure if this was a bluff or whether there would be a challenge during the Appointment Stage. He asked Amano supporters to take the floor to oppose any such challenge, citing past practice. Nakane stressed that a 23 plus 1 vote is not divisive and would not have been possible without "South" support for Amano. He also hoped for many congratulatory statements, including by the EU and "South" countries and asked France to solicit Spain's acquiescence to an EU statement. Furthermore, appointment by acclamation was essential to help forestall what would be an unprecedented challenge in the General Conference, which approves, traditionally by consensus, the Board's appointment of the Director General. Charge reported that the 2009 GC President, New Zealand, had spoken July 2 to the Board Chair who is not expecting any challenge. Canada noted that it would amend its congratulatory statement to envisage consensus approval in the General Conference and suggested others do the same. ¶2. (C) Leading up to the final vote was an elimination round, in which Spanish candidate Echavarri was eliminated as expected by a vote of Amano 20- Minty 10- Echavarri 5. We believe the five Echavarri supporters included Spain, Russia, Germany, Romania and another unknown EU member, voting out of EU solidarity. This was followed by three inconclusive ballots in an Amano-Minty runoff, all of which resulted in a vote of Amano 23, Minty 12. Russia and Spain defected to Minty in a tactical vote to block Amano's election while the three other EU Echavarri supporters shifted to Amano in the runoff. This result confirmed with expectations of 24 "commitments" for Amano minus one unknown "betrayal." Following the three ballots, a simple majority procedural vote to determine who was the "leading candidate" produced the same result, Amano 23, Minty 12. A Minty supporter abstained in the final confidence vote (Yes/No/Abstain on Amano as "leading candidate") to give the election to Amano. Judging from his reaction after the vote, we suspect India held to its commitment in the "confidence vote," with the Indian Ambassador going out of his way to congratulate Amano on the eve of his Foreign Minister's arrival in Tokyo. PYATT