IAEA/DG: NOMINATIONS DEADLINE CLOSES WITH ONLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000002

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR IO/T AND ISN/MNSA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL IAEA KNNP JA SF
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG: NOMINATIONS DEADLINE CLOSES WITH ONLY
MINTY AND AMANO IN THE RACE - REQUEST FOR GUIDANCE

Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons
1.4 b and d

Summary
--------------


1. (C) At the close of the December 31 deadline, only Japan
and South Africa had submitted nominations for IAEA Director
General, Japanese Governor Yukiya Amano and South African
Governor Abdul Minty. This ends all speculation about other
candidates emerging in the first round of voting. The Board
Chair will now initiate consultations with Board members in
January-February and may conduct straw polls leading up to a
formal vote, expected at the March Board. Only if one of the
two candidates fails to muster the required two-thirds
support would a new call for nominations go out allowing for
other possible candidacies. It is possible that the
election could be decided in March if Amano, the leading
candidate, secures the required two-thirds support. If Amano
fails in his strategy of achieving an early victory, the odds
are good that others could throw their hats into the ring,
further splintering the race. GUIDANCE REQUEST: The Board
Chair will assuredly seek consultations with the U.S. in the
imminent future. Mission requests guidance to advise the
Chair of the U.S. position on the next IAEA DG by February 1.
End Summary and Guidance Request.

Minty-Amano to Face-off in First Round
--------------


2. (SBU) In a January 2 letter, Board Chair Feroukhi informed
Board members that she had received only two nominations,
that of Japanese Governor Yukiya Amano and South African
Governor Abdul Minty, to succeed IAEA Director General
ElBaradei and circulated communications from each of their
governments. Notably, both South Africa and Japan's letters
highlighted promotion of peaceful uses of nuclear energy,
though Japan added "while ensuring non-proliferation." Japan
also noted that Amano is a "particularly skillful and
effective administrator, possessing broad and solid
management experience."


3. (SBU) The Secretariat of the Policy-Making Organs (PMO)
advised that the Board Chair would now proceed with
consultations with Board members in January-February to see
if a consensus can emerge. The Board may invite the
candidates to address an open session as "early as possible"
after the closure of the nominations deadline in accordance
with the Procedures for Appointment of the Director General
(GOV/2008/44). Although there are only two candidates, the
Board may still conduct informal "straw polls" with a view to
facilitating consensus or laying the groundwork for a formal
vote. PMO expected that the Board Chair would be pressured,
particularly by Japan, to conduct early straw polls in
February, leading up to a formal vote likely at the March 3-7
Board session (Note: Straw polls would be conducted in
closed session by secret ballot, much like the formal vote.
End note). The Japanese Mission told us that they had been
promised Feroukhi's consultations would be conducted with a
neutral Secretariat witness in order to ensure a fair
process. Japan hopes to avoid a divisive debate by
demonstrating early Board support for Amano.

Could This Be Over in March ?
--------------


4. (C) The first round of voting will thus be a run-off
between Amano and Minty, which may settle the issue if one of
the two candidates can secure the required two-thirds vote.
Only if the Board is deadlocked in March and the slate is
wiped clean, would the Board Chair issue a new call for
nominations allowing others to enter the race, as has
happened in the past. Japan would also likely re-nominate
Amano in such a scenario. While the possibility of Amano
securing the election in the first round cannot be entirely
ruled out, the best Minty can hope for is obtaining a
blocking one-third vote. If Amano were able to firm-up
support among eight EU members on the Board (who will vote
their national positions rather than as a block) along with
the five JUSCANZ, win over most of the GRULAC (four potential
votes not counting Cuba and Ecuador) and confirm commitments
received from at least three others, Amano would be at 20 of
the 23 votes required. Russia and China could potentially
bring him over the line. A perception that there is no
better third party alternative could reinforce support for
Amano. Alternatively, some countries, including some of the
EU, could pin their hopes on a better candidate emerging and
vote "blank" (or for Minty) to block Amano in the first
round.


5. (C) The Board Chair's letter ended rampant speculation

about other aspirants emerging prior to the December 31
nominations deadline for the first round. Rumors about OPCW
head Rogelio Pfirter, who had not secured the backing of the
Argentine government, and former Mexican President Zedillo
entering the race came to nothing. The Mexican Mission
dismissed talk of a Zedillo candidacy as speculation. Former
Slovenian Permrep and Board Chair Ernest Petric also advised
Ambassador Schulte in December of his interest in running but
decided to hold off. According to Petric, his Prime Minister
and Foreign Minister would support his candidacy, if the
Board becomes deadlocked and no other EU candidate comes
forward. The UK and France are dismissive of Petric, though
he was helpful on Iran issues during his tenure as Board
Chair. Former Chilean Board Chair Milenko Skoknic may also
reemerge in the case of deadlock. He has told us he remains
interested but will make no decision until seeing how the
first round of voting plays out. Among other potential
candidates are former Technical Cooperation DDG Normaly Bin
Muslim of Malaysia and internal candidates, EXPO Director
Vilmos Cserveny and Safeguards DDG Olli Heinonen.
SCHULTE