IAEA/DG RACE: BELGIUM TO THROW HAT IN THE RING

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000180 SIPDIS DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD DOE FOR NA-20 NSC FOR CONNERY NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019 TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA MY SI SF BE SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: BELGIUM TO THROW HAT IN THE RING REF: A) UNVIE 156 B) UNVIE 178 Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Following earlier reports (ref a) of a possible Belgian candidacy for IAEA Director General, the Belgian Mission confirmed April 24 that the nomination of Jean-Pol Poncelet, though not yet official, would be submitted either later the same day or early April 27 (the last day for nominations). The Belgian Mission is awaiting its Foreign Minister's signature of the official letter. The Mission had advised the Board Chair April 24 and EU counterparts that the nomination was forthcoming. A former Deputy Prime Minister, Energy and Defense Minister, Poncelet is seen as a consensus figure in Belgian domestic politics. According to a UK brief on Poncelet, he is a civil nuclear engineer by training and has a strong background on nuclear issues deriving from his former Energy portfolio and his current work at French nuclear giant Areva. Preliminary reaction to the Poncelet candidacy was muted among EU3 (UK, France, Germany) DCMs in a separate meeting April 24. He is not well-known to the local Missions. The UK DCM qualified the situation "as a mess" and all acknowledged that EU coordination would be complicated. No one had instructions. ¶2. (S) Poncelet's entry into the mix is likely to further splinter the eight EU votes on the Board in early rounds of balloting. However, having a third EU candidate may not change the field in the long run. It is likely that two of the three current EU candidates will be eliminated or withdraw due to insufficient support. Thus, we are likely to end up with an Amano-Minty-Euro "semi-final." The key remains who will make it to the final two: an Amano-Minty replay of March; an Amano-Euro contest or, less likely, a Euro-Minty runoff. The second option may be the most advantageous, with two good candidates, but would be difficult to engineer (ref b). Ironically, the more successful Japan is in its lobbying campaign, the more likely we are to face an Amano-Minty replay, i.e., if Amano gets substantial EU support, a European candidate is unlikely to make the final round. ¶3. (C) In the April 24 meeting, German DCM claimed to have been surprised by Minty's re-entry into the race and interpreted it as an effort on the part of the G-77, given the absence of any other strong candidate from the "South," to maintain a blocking minority and thus influence the election. Following a long discussion with Minty this week, the German Ambassador reported the South African was in his polarizing mode, complaining that Germany and others had failed to credit him for South Africa's leadership on non-proliferation issues. Responding to inquiries, the U.S. confirmed continued support for Amano while we review the state of play. German DCM was personally doubtful of Amano's prospects, with the UK DCM agreeing that Amano had less of a chance with Minty back in the race. French DCM was personally more optimistic that Amano could narrowly pull through against Minty. France reported that a Bin Muslim candidacy was now unlikely, allowing the NAM/G-77 to coalesce around Minty. French DCM had also heard that Russia is supportive of Echavarri. German DCM still hoped for a Latin candidate, Pfirter or Skoknic, but acknowledged the lack of GRULAC coordination. The UK advised that the U.S. position could influence Buenos Aires but a Pfirter candidacy seemed unlikely based on FCO inquiries. 4.(C) France remains concerned about DG ElBaradei's re-entry into the race in the event of deadlock this next round. If this is the case, the French would prefer to drag the election into September in the hopes of a "fresh face" emerging rather than risking another ElBaradei term. There is no indication of any interest as yet on the part of ElBaradei. SCHULTE