IAEA/DG RACE: MINTY RE-ENTERS RACE, CHANGING THE

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000178 SIPDIS DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD DOE FOR NA-20 NSC FOR CONNERY NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2019 TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA MY SI SF SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: MINTY RE-ENTERS RACE, CHANGING THE PLAYING FIELD REF: A) UNVIE 177 B) STATE 38611 C) STATE 34652 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey R, Pyatt Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) The IAEA Secretariat confirmed that South Africa had officially submitted its re-nomination of Governor Abdul Minty for Director General April 21. Minty's performance in the first round proves he cannot win, but he has emerged as a standard-bearer for the "non-aligned" members of the IAEA. With several days left until the nomination deadline, it is impossible to assess the full range of candidates, but thus far this is shaping into a three-man race between Japanese Governor Amano, Minty and Spanish candidate Luis Echavarri. Minty stands a good chance of being one of two remaining frontrunners after the elimination rounds, given the split in the Western vote. An Amano-Echavarri runoff would be optimal for U.S. interests, but securing it would require Echavarri to cleave support from Minty while not undercutting too much of Amano's support. Slovenian candidate Petric will likely be eliminated early; Petric lacks a natural constituency, with the Western vote going to Amano and Echavarri and the G-77 supporting Minty. A Belgian candidacy at this juncture seems unlikely and would potentially further splinter the Western vote. Even if Chilean Ambassador Skoknic or prospective Malaysian candidate Bin Muslim entered the race, they will almost certainly fall by the wayside with Minty back in the game. Japanese DCM Nakane assessed April 22 that Buenos Aires did not intend to nominate OPCW head Rogelio Pfirter. In response to ref b, Nakane relayed that the Japanese Embassy will request appointments for Amano in Washington May 11-13. End Summary. The Minty Factor -------------- ¶2. (S) South African IAEA Governor Abdul Minty's re-entry in the race for IAEA Director General significantly complicates the playing field and raises the chances of another Minty-Amano stalemate. Given that the "Western" vote is likely to be split, Minty could emerge as one of the two remaining frontrunners after elimination rounds of voting. To avoid a repeat of the March Amano-Minty standoff and further stalemate, we would need to ensure that another candidate can garner sufficient support to out-vote Minty while not detracting too much support from Amano. Although Minty's re-nomination deprives OECD Nuclear Energy Agency head Luis Echavarri (Spain) of "bridge builder" potential, Echavarri is currently positioned as the strongest candidate to eliminate Minty, though much of his support would come from the Amano camp. Minty is likely to retain a core of support from South Africa, Brazil, India, Cuba, Egypt, and Algeria. The key for Echavarri would be to also cleave off most of the other countries that provided Minty his blocking third in March: Russia, China, Argentina, Malaysia, Mexico and Philippines, as well as possibly the UK. Amano and Echavarri would presumably split the remaining 23 Board members. Therefore, unless some of the "Minty 12" defect to a candidate such as Echavarri, Minty will emerge as one of the two frontrunners in a runoff ballot. Among the 12, Argentina and Russia might be inclined to support Echavarri, according to Japanese DCM Nakane, who advised Charge April 22 that Spain had told this Mission that Russia, along with other nuclear power countries, encouraged Echavarri's candidacy. (Comment: UNVIE cannot substantiate this rumor, as such a decision would have been made in Moscow, likely without the involvement of Russia's Vienna Mission. End Comment.) Japan is continuing to lobby Russia and is still unsure what motivated its decision not to support Amano in March. Japanese PM Aso will also visit Beijing this month. Nakane was not surprised by South Africa's re-nomination of Minty on the eve of the South African parliamentary election. He speculated that the decision was made so as to keep a strong G-77 candidate in the mix on the expectation that the Western vote would splinter. Preliminary Vote Count -------------- ¶3. (S) At this juncture, most Board members are not committing to a candidate, with many withholding judgment until the close of nominations. Amano seems to have maintained support from those who favor a technical approach to running the IAEA, but the general enthusiasm has waned. Japan also confirmed to us that while it has some firm commitments, other supporters are taking a wait-and-see position. Despite the change in tone, over the past ten days counterparts from eight Vienna missions told us they expected their capitals to maintain support for Amano. Japanese DCM Nakane on April 22 was fairly confident of Afghanistan's continued support but nevertheless requested active U.S. advocacy with WEOG members, Iraq, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia. (Note: Afghanistan's Ambassador informed us privately after his return from consultations in Kabul that Afghanistan's support for Amano had not changed. Likewise, Australia has pledged firm support. End Note.) With Echavarri in the race, the EU is expected to split. Nakane reported that France is undecided and queried DCM about the U.K.'s position, which was unclear to Japan. Romania and Ireland also told us that they may shift their vote to a European candidate. Amano is even planning to visit Albania, one his strongest proponents, next week to reconfirm Tirana's support. Charge noted that it will be essential for Japan to retain the support of the seven or eight developing countries that voted for Amano in March. In addition to Iraq, Afghanistan and Ghana, Japan expects continued support from Ecuador, as the latter's decision was made at the Presidential level. In the course of UNVIE's soundings, Ecuador, Mexico, Lithuania, Brazil, Uruguay and the Philippines declined to comment until "all nominations were in." With Minty back in the race, we would expect Brazil and India to continue to support him. Nakane reported that the Philippines will base its decision on whether Malaysia nominates Bin Muslim, which seems increasingly unlikely given Minty's re-entry. Getting to the Right Two -------------- ¶4. (S) While an Amano-Echavarri run off would be optimal for U.S. interests, it will be difficult to engineer. Since Minty will probably retain most of his core support, this would require a delicate balance to ensure Echavarri gets enough support to come in second without completely undercutting Amano. Key swing votes such as Argentina and Russia could make the difference in suppressing Minty to a third-place finish. In a Japan-Spain runoff, neither Amano nor Echavarri would be likely to get to two-thirds in the first three rounds of voting, but in a "leading candidate" vote, Board members would be more likely to shift support than in an Amano-Minty contest. An Amano-Minty runoff would likely end in further stalemate. In an Echavarri-Minty race, Echavarri might be able to secure WEOG, Latin American and Russian support, but Spain would be hard pressed to deliver the kind of developing-world support (Afghanistan, Ghana, Iraq, etc.) that Japan was able to generate with its assistance program. PYATT