IAEA/DG RACE: CANDIDATES NEED APPLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000141 SIPDIS DEPT FOR IO, ISN, P AND D E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2019 TAGS: AORC PREL PARM TRGY IAEA KNNP JA SF SI CI MY SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: CANDIDATES NEED APPLY REF: UNVIE 132 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Board Chairs Chilean Ambassador Milenko Skoknic and former Slovenian Ambassador Ernesto Petric separately informed Ambassador Schulte April 1-2 that their respective governments are considering nominating them for IAEA Director General. Chile is consulting with other Latin American governments and will factor in Buenos Aires's view in particular. Skoknic hoped for a decision by April 20; Petric anticipated a decision in Ljubjana by April 9. According to press reports, Malaysia will support the candidacy of former DDG for Technical Cooperation, Normaly Bin Muslim, though the Ambassador here said no decision had been taken. None of these candidates are viewed as likely to secure the required two-thirds of the Board. As of opening of business April 6, the Secretariat had not received any nominations from any government. Still scathing from the lack of Western support, South African Adbul Minty did not indicate interest in being re-nominated in an April 1 discussion with Ambassador Schulte. Ambassador Schulte assured Minty that the U.S. had given careful consideration to both candidates and had not campaigned against him. The two agreed to continue working together closely, despite the regrettable tone of Minty's closing statement at the March 27 Special Session. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Former IAEA Board of Governors Chair and Slovenian Ambassador Petric, who is currently Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, called Ambassador Schulte Aril 1 to advise that his government will formally decide on April 9 whether to nominate him for the IAEA DG post. The IAEA would then be immediately informed, Petric would come to Vienna to consult with Board members, and demarches would be made in capitals. Petric suggested he could be a compromise candidate, acceptable to the Western Europe and Others Group (WEOG) but more acceptable to the NAM, particularly as a former Yugoslav, than Amano. Slovenia, he acknowledged, could not mount a lobbying campaign on the scale of Japan's. If he does not have support, his nomination would be withdrawn, Petric said. Petric likened himself to current Chilean Ambassador Milenko Skoknic in terms of his IAEA experience, though he has also held a Ministerial portfolio. Given his 
age, Petric said he would serve only one term. Ambassador Schulte was non-committal and advised that Washington is considering next steps. (Comment: It is not clear that Petric would have EU support, much less broader support on the Board. As a former Board Chair (2006-2007) like his predecessor Amano, Petric's stance on Iran would not make him popular among the NAM. End comment.) ¶3. (C) Former Board Chair and Chilean Ambassador Skoknic phoned Ambassador Schulte April 2 to advise that he has formally requested his government to consider nominating him for Director General. He is so informing Board members, though the decision is still pending at the Ministerial level. The Chilean government is first consulting with other Latin American countries, and will accord particular importance to Buenos Aires's view. (Comment: Presumably, Chile has no desire to contend with a Pfirter candidacy. End Comment.) Skoknic noted that the Summit of the Americas would take place on April 16-17 and hoped for a decision by April 20. Predictably, Skoknik discounted the prospects for potential Argenitine candidate Rogelio Pfirter, who Skoknic claims has issues with President Kirchner. Skoknic also speculated that former Mexican President Zedillo would be appointed to another (unspecified) UN post. Skoknic noted that Amano and Minty had divided every group - the P5, GRULAC, Asia, Africa and New Agenda coalition - and he envisioned himself as more of a consensus candidate. (Comment: Absent a Pfirter candidacy, Skoknik could draw GRULAC and possible NAM support coming from a NAM member country. Although a decent Board Chair, he is not seen as a heavy-hitter who can command broad consensus. Whether he can garner WEOG and P5 support as the best qualified candidate is questionable. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) According to a press report, Malaysia will endorse the candidacy of Normaly Bin Muslim, Chairman of the Malaysian Atomic Energy Licensing Board and former DDG for Technical Cooperation in the 1980s. Heretofore, Bin Muslim's interest in the DG position was considered personal, with even the Malaysian Ambassador in Vienna discounting his candidacy. Of advanced age and long out of the IAEA loop, he is not seen as serious contender though he could get some NAM support. As of April 3, the Malaysian Ambassador, who has never shown any personal interest in promoting Bin Muslim, said that his government had not taken a decision. ¶5. (C) In an April 1 discussion with Ambassador Schulte, South African candidate Abdul Minty relayed South Africa's disappointment with the lack of any Western support or a "fair hearing" from Western countries. Minty said he had anticipated that the U.S. would support Japan, due to our strategic relationship, but had nonetheless hoped for more favorable consideration from the Obama administration. Minty also recalled his role in helping the U.S. secure indefinite extension of the NPT in the 1995 Revcon. He expressed unhappiness at the "disinformation" surrounding the campaign and the three governments that shifted their votes to Amano on the second day of balloting. In light of his defeat, he indicated that the new RSA government would review its policies at the IAEA. Ambassador Schulte expressed concern with Minty's March 27 closing statement in the Board's Special Session and emphasized the need to build bridges on the Board, not burn them, given the importance of the IAEA to both countries. He congratulated Minty on an otherwise dignified campaign and assured him that the U.S. had not campaigned against him. Minty agreed to continue working closely together. ¶6. (C) Although not asked directly, Minty did not indicate an interest in being re-nominated for IAEA DG or that his government is considering this; nor is he interested in other international posts such as at OPCW. Noting the election later this month in South Africa, he said he may be given a new portfolio in the new government on nonproliferation and nuclear energy issues. In the interim, he will remain in Vienna on other business. SCHULTE