MONGOLIA SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BOEHNER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ULAANBAATAR 000208 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OREP AMGT ASEC AFIN MG SUBJECT: MONGOLIA SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BOEHNER ULAANBAATA 00000208 001.2 OF 005 Sensitive but Unclassified - Not for Internet Distribution Ref: State 75283 ¶1. (SBU) Post has prepared the following scenesetter for the Congressional Delegation, led by Rep. John Boehner of Ohio and scheduled to visit Mongolia from August 9 to 10. ¶2. (SBU) Below is a breakdown by paragraph of the organization of this scenesetter: 3-5: Context of the Visit 6-8: Political Overview 9-10: Economic Overview 11-12: Bilateral Trade 13-15: Mining Overview 16-17: Foreign Assistance Overview 18-21: Defense Overview 22-24: Mongolian Troops Abroad 25: Attitudes Toward the U.S. 26: Educational Exchanges -------------- CONTEXT OF THE VISIT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) We are pleased to welcome you to Mongolia. Your visit follows the successful transition of power to Ts. Elbegdorj as president last June, which underscores the progress this country has made in developing its democratic institutions. The U.S.-Mongolia relationship is robust and continues to grow, and your visit will do much to cement our relations. Wedged between Russia and China, Mongolia refers to its key partners not sharing a border as "Third Neighbors," and our relationship is paramount among these. Mongolia has been a steadfast partner in Iraq and Afghanistan, sending ten rotations to Iraq, artillery training teams to Afghanistan, and will soon send a new mission to Afghanistan. Mongolia is engaged in political and market-based economic reforms, and the United States seeks opportunities to assist the country's transformation. Visits by Members of the House play a key role in this transformation and have won us many friends in Mongolia. ¶4. (SBU) Although post-election violence on July 1, 2008 overshadowed parliamentary elections last summer, Mongolia overcame those tragic events to form a coalition government of the two major parties last fall and to hold a transparent, fair, and peaceful presidential election on May 24, 2009. Mongolians have rejected the violence of last summer as the wrong direction for their country. The defeat of the incumbent President by opposition candidate Ts. Elbegdorj, followed by a peaceful transition of the presidency also underscored Mongolia's political maturity. ¶5. (SBU) The coalition has taken some steps in the last few months to secure passage of mining legislation that is more agreeable to the government and possibly to western investors, but passage remains elusive. With presidential elections behind them, the parties may be better able to focus on such legislation, but ongoing inter- and intra-party political squabbles hamper progress. However, the Government will try once more to gain parliamentary approval of Mongolia's first large-scale mining project with a major western mining company, Rio Tinto, at about the time of your visit. -------------- POLITICAL OVERVIEW -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Mongolia's successful democratic transition motivates our deepening engagement in recent years. Mongolia has made significant progress since 1992: These years have seen the withdrawal of 100,000 Soviet troops, the beginnings of a multi-party political system, and the advent of a market economy. Although the formerly communist Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP) held the overwhelming majority of power in the immediate aftermath of the Soviet withdrawal, opposition parties have since coalesced into the Democratic Party (DP),which has at times won a majority in parliament and selected a prime minister. The MPRP chose to form a coalition government with the DP in recognition of the need to work together to face the global economic downturn and the crash in copper prices that significantly diminished government revenue. ¶7. (SBU) The May 24, 2009, presidential election best illustrates ULAANBAATA 00000208 002.2 OF 005 the extent of Mongolia's political recovery. Then incumbent president N. Enkhbayar of the MPRP lost to DP challenger Ts. Elbegdorj, a veteran of the Democratic Revolution of the early 1990s. Embassy officials and other international partners sent observers to over 95 percent of the polling places in Ulaanbaatar on Election Day and noted no significant irregularities. By noon the following day, President Enkhbayar conceded defeat, dispelling fears of a repeat of last summer's violence. Elbegdorj took office on June 18. A Harvard M.A., fluent in English and knowledgeable about American culture, Elbegdorj is well disposed toward the United States. ¶8. (SBU) One of the central themes of Elbegdorj's presidential campaign was that of change, with particular emphasis on fighting corruption. Mongolia established the Independent Authority Against Corruption (IAAC) in 2007 and has now required financial disclosure statements of its top officials; those refusing to disclose have had to pay significant fines and run the risk of being dismissed. Some officials have been arrested as a result of IAAC efforts, but few have been high-ranking. -------------- ECONOMIC OVERVIEW -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The global economic crisis has not spared Mongolia. GDP in the first five months of 2009 has declined 7.5 percent from 2008, with no immediate recovery in sight. The most painful impact has been on Mongolia's budget. From 2005 through mid-2008, booming profits from the Mongol-Russian state-owned Erdenet copper mine provided more than one-third of state revenues. Copper then dropped to a low of USD 3,500 per ton following record highs of over USD 8,000 per ton. During this boom period, the government adhered to a largely pro-cyclical policy, increasing civil service wages and social welfare programs. Increased spending, coupled with import dependency, also led to inflation rates as high as 33 percent as recently as summer 2008. As the global situation soured last fall, foreign investment slowed. Scarce dollars led to a rapid devaluation of the Mongolian national currency, the tugrik, which fell nearly 40 percent against the dollar from October 2008 through March 2009. ¶10. (SBU) In March, the GOM negotiated a USD 224 million Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Balance of Payments Support with the IMF and passed its first IMF review last May. As part of the SBA's conditions, the GOM cut its budget deficit from 10-12 percent of GDP to about six percent. The SBA also requires the GOM to obtain donor support for the remaining budget gap, estimated at USD 205 million for 2009 and 2010. The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the Government of Japan announced a combined USD 160 million in support. All parties continue to lobby the U.S. for a substantial contribution. We expect to receive approximately US 14 million for a 2009 contribution to the donor program through a supplemental recently passed by the Congress. -------------- BILATERAL TRADE -------------- ¶11. (SBU) U.S.-Mongolian trade currently stands at around USD 140 million per year. U.S. imports to Mongolia -- mostly in the form of heavy machinery -- have remained relatively stable. Caterpillar, Ford, and John Deere flourish, even in the current down market. In September 2008, Department of Commerce Deputy Undersecretary for International Trade Michelle O'Neill led the first ever certified U.S. business delegation to Mongolia. The annual U.S.-Mongolia Business Forum, sponsored by the Department of Commerce, the Government of Mongolia, and State, attracted nearly 200 participants this year to a Washington meeting addressed by Secretary of Commerce Locke. ¶12. (SBU) Mongolia's top trade priority with the U.S. is reaching a Free Trade Agreement, although USTR has consistently responded that the small size of bilateral trade makes such an agreement unlikely for the foreseeable future. In 2007, USTR proposed a stand-alone Transparency Agreement (TA),which if successfully negotiated could lead to additional stand-alone agreements for key aspects of the trade relationship. As most businesses active in Mongolia identified lack of legislative and regulatory transparency as one of the key factors inhibiting foreign and domestic investment, USTR decided to work with Mongolia in this area through an administrative ULAANBAATA 00000208 003.2 OF 005 agreement. Mongolia and USTR plan to start negotiations on the TA later this year. -------------- MINING OVERVIEW -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The establishment of major mining projects remains the key commercial and development issue facing Mongolia. Extraction of Mongolia's considerable coal, copper, gold, uranium, iron, and other deposits will generate substantial earnings for the GOM. For U.S. commercial interests such as mining firms Peabody Energy and Rio Tinto and equipment makers Caterpillar, Ingersoll-Rand, Bucyrus, and John Deere, mining is THE industry that will provide the income necessary to ensure long-term purchases of U.S. goods and services. Failure to move on the Rio Tinto/Ivanhoe Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project has already cost U.S. export interests an estimated USD 200 million in equipment sales and other contracts. Separately, the Embassy is providing advocacy support for Peabody to secure the operating rights for the major Tavan Tolgoi coking coal deposit. ¶14. (SBU) The global economic crisis has forced investors to make hard choices as to where to put scarce dollars. An opaque legal and regulatory environment, arbitrary enforcement of and changes to the rules of the game, and a weak global economy have driven many exploration firms out of Mongolia, removing hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign direct investment and hundreds of well-paying jobs from the Mongolian economy. ¶15. (SBU) Recently, the government of Mongolia, acting with Parliament's sanction, crafted an investment agreement with mining giant Rio Tinto and Canada's Ivanhoe to stabilize the legal and regulatory environment for the Oyu Tolgoi mine. The only remaining hurdle is parliamentary approval of the agreement. Foreign and domestic observers expected Parliament to vote on the agreement in mid-July, but Parliament yet again declined to vote definitively up or down, kicking the agreement back to the government for additional negotiations. Private investors have signaled that failure to pass this deal will cause them to mothball the project. -------------- FOREIGN ASSISTANCE OVERVIEW -------------- ¶16. (SBU) The Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) for Mongolia, which over five years is scheduled to disburse $285 million in grant money, entered into force in September 2008. MCA is overcoming the loss of its $188 million rail modernization project due to the objection of the Russian government, which owns 50 percent of the state-owned railroad. Bowing to pressure from the most senior levels of the Russian government, Mongolia was forced to decline the MCC rail grant. However, both U.S. and Mongolian officials are working quickly to design proposals for other appropriate projects in Mongolia in order to present recommendations to the MCC Board of Directors in September. This was a key issue in Foreign Minister Batbold's discussions with Secretary Clinton on June 9 in Washington. ¶17. (SBU) USAID, present in Mongolia since 1991, has several ongoing programs with a focus on private sector-led economic growth and good governance. In the area of economic growth, USAID focuses on economic and trade policy, financial sector reform, energy sector reform and national dialogue. Current emphases are working with international financial institutions (IBRD, ADB, EBRD, IMF and IFC) to address critical and systemic banking sector problems, and on building a national consensus on development of Mongolia's vast mineral resources. In the area of good governance, USAID focuses on anti-corruption and improving the Mongolian judiciary's adjudication of commercial cases. With over 125 Peace Corps volunteers, Mongolia's program is one of the largest in the world per capita. -------------- DEFENSE OVERVIEW -------------- ¶18. (SBU) Mongolia's armed forces represent a compromise between national identity and practical reality. There are three national-level armed services, only one of which falls under the Ministry of Defense: the 12,500-man Mongolian Armed Forces. The Ministry of Justice oversees the Border Forces (13,000 soldiers out of the 18,500 strong General Border Protection Board, which also ULAANBAATA 00000208 004.2 OF 005 includes Customs and Immigration personnel) and the Internal Troops (approximately 4,000). An additional disciplined service, the National Emergency Management Agency, reports directly to the Deputy Prime Minister and is responsible for civil defense, fire and disaster response. ¶19. (SBU) Sandwiched between two military powers and with no illusions about countering an invasion or attack by either, the Mongolian Armed Forces' (MAF) raison d'etre is not entirely clear to outside observers. However, the Mongolians have astutely used their participation in Coalition and UN peace support operations to increase their international recognition and improve their reputation as a partner in regional stability. This increased recognition has helped counterbalance the enormous economic dependence on Russia and China. The MAF are in the midst of an ambitious defense reform program to transform its Soviet-legacy military into a modern, Western-style, expedition-capable armed force interoperable with U.S. and UN partners. The centerpiece of Mongolia's reform effort is the ongoing development of a 2,500-soldier Peace Support Brigade. ¶20. (SBU) Playing a key role in Mongolia's initiative is the annual multinational peacekeeping exercise Khaan Quest. This multi-part exercise, which began as a Marine Forces Pacific (MARFORPAC) bilateral exercise with the Mongolian Armed Forces, has grown into a regional exercise drawing participants from as far away as India, Nepal, and Indonesia. South Korea will participate for the first time in 2009. The exercise this year includes an expanded UN Peacekeeping Staff Officers Course, a U.S.-Mongolian humanitarian civic action project, a medical readiness exercise, and a battalion staff operations training course to assist in readying Mongolian peacekeeping battalions for upcoming deployments. Observers from other nations attend the exercise, which is normally opened by the President of Mongolia. The exercise is one of several peacekeeping exercises supported globally under the Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI) auspices, and has been a significant factor in raising Mongolia's regional and international profile as a quality provider of peacekeeping forces. ¶21. (SBU) Once the sole domain of the U.S.-Mongolia defense cooperation program, the peace support concept -- as well as the rest of the MAF -- has seen a surge in Russian interest and assistance, with a five-year $120 million assistance program underway. A 450-man Russian contingent of maintenance troops came to Mongolia last fall for Exercise Darkhan One -- the first such entry by a sizeable contingent since the Russian departure in the early 1990s. Russian personnel taught and performed maintenance on legacy military systems, improving the operational readiness rate of the MAF main line forces considerably. A second Darkhan exercise is planned for this fall. Russia's recent steps to reestablish a presence in Mongolian security affairs illustrate that while U.S.-Mongolian security ties remain strong, there is no guarantee that we will continue to play a singular role in Mongolian defense reform. -------------- MONGOLIAN TROOPS ABROAD -------------- ¶22. (SBU) Mongolian troops have earned a strong reputation providing Coalition and UN support since their first deployment in 2003. Five years' worth of ten consecutive deployments to Iraq ended in October of 2008. Mongolia also provided a 21-soldier artillery training team to Afghanistan, an effort it temporarily discontinued late last summer due to multiple soldier deployments by these specialized personnel. Mongolia has had an ongoing 250-soldier deployment under the UN flag in Sierra Leone, which is due to conclude at year-end. This deployment represented a major success for U.S. policy, as there has been virtually no U.S. involvement in the effort. Helping the Mongolians prepare for expeditionary missions has been a longstanding priority for the United States. ¶23. (SBU) After a SECDEF request, Mongolia is now in the final stages of preparing to deploy approximately 200 personnel to Afghanistan: 130 personnel will support the United States with fixed site security at Camp Eggers; 23 personnel will provide artillery training with the United States for the Afghan National Army; and about 40 personnel will support the German contingent under ISAF command in the North. Foreign Minister Batbold underscored Mongolia's commitment to deploying troops to Afghanistan during his June 9 meeting with Secretary Clinton in Washington. ULAANBAATA 00000208 005.2 OF 005 ¶24. (SBU) Earlier decisions to provide more limited support have been overcome by Mongolia's recent commitment to sending an 800 strong battalion of peacekeepers to support the UN mission in northeastern Chad, to be deployed by the end of 2009. Mongolia's government can use the revenue from the deployment to Chad to offset the cost of supporting OEF and ISAF deployments in Afghanistan. This will be Mongolia's most ambitious overseas military deployment ever attempted in modern times and is fully in line with the goals of U.S. support to the Mongolian Armed Forces peacekeeping efforts. While the provision of Coalition support will incur considerable cost to the cash-strapped Mongolian government, Mongolia clearly understands the value of accumulating political capital. -------------- ATTITUDES TOWARD THE U.S. -------------- ¶25. (SBU) Among officials, the media, and the public attitudes toward the United States are generally positive. Our public diplomacy efforts focus on providing information about the United States and its policies, partly through our American Corners in Ulaanbaatar and Khovd. Mongolians are keenly interested in U.S. visa policy, and some argue for including Mongolia in the visa waiver program, but Mongolia is not close to qualifying for this program. -------------- EDUCATIONAL EXCHANGES -------------- ¶26. (SBU) Educational exchanges have greatly expanded in recent years. For the 2009-10 academic year, four Mongolians will study on Fulbright Scholarships for Master's Degrees at U.S. universities, and five American students will come to Mongolia for research as Fulbright Students. The Embassy supports an active educational advising center with an increasing number of Mongolian students heading to the U.S. to study each year. Our English language program provides scholarships for economically disadvantaged high school students from more remote provinces. MINTON