MONGOLIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN INTENSIFIES IN ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000141 STATE FOR EAP/CM; NSC FOR JEFF BADER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MG SUBJECT: MONGOLIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN INTENSIFIES IN ITS FINAL WEEK Classified By: Political Chief Andrew Covington, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1.(C) SUMMARY: As the campaign heads into its final days before the May 24 presidential election, the candidates are rallying voters in Ulaanbaatar and in the provinces. There is still no reliable polling information, as most of the polls are tied to partisan organizations or publications and have produced predictably divergent results. Some contacts have complained the MPRP is illegally enlisting the help of civil servants in its campaign efforts. The MPRP has also accused Elbegdorj of accepting campaign contributions from a South Korean religious group, but the General Election Committee (GEC) chose not to investigate the allegations. Enkhbayar, who is very popular in rural areas, has proposed policies to help herders, while Elbegdorj has centered his campaign on the broad themes of honesty, equality, anti-corruption, and the need for political change. Campaign ads are flooding the airwaves and have become increasingly negative in the past week. END SUMMARY. -------------- CANDIDATES MAKE FINAL PUSH -------------- ¶2. (C) With only days to go before the presidential campaign officially ends at midnight on Friday, both camps are in high gear. Both candidates have spent a great deal of time campaigning in the countryside in recent weeks. DP officials told us Elbegdorj plans to visit Bulgan and Orkhon provinces this week before a rally in Erdenet on Friday. Enkhbayar, who draws much of his support from rural areas, has campaigned in all but Tuv aimag, an MPRP stronghold. The two candidates' campaign styles are markedly different: while Enkhbayar travels by plane with an entourage of 10-15 people, Elbegdorj travels by car with just three assistants, according to an Embassy contact. ¶3. (SBU) The DP kicked off its final week of campaigning with a large rally in Sukhbaatar Square on May 17 that was linked to the 20th anniversary of Mongolia's democratic movement. Between 6,000 and 7,000 DP supporters, as well as veterans of the democracy movement, including Civil Will Party leader S. Oyun and Green Party leader D. Enkhbat - both of whom are also MPs and Elbegdorj supporters in this campaign - turned out for the rally. Speakers praised Elbegdorj for his contribution to the country's democratic process. Oyun said �00A;she supports Elbegdorj because he has fought to strengthen democracy and democratic values in Mongolia. Elbegdorj's supporters waved signs with the slogan "Let's Change," a follow-up to his central campaign message, "Shall We Change?" Similar rallies took place in all 21 provinces and 330 soum centers. ¶4. (SBU) Enkhbayar spent his final weekend campaigning in Ulaanbaatar's Chingeltei and Sukhbaatar Districts, where he met with voters, students, and senior citizens. He also visited a ger neighborhood in Chingeltei District, where he pledged to continue assisting the neighborhood with road and water infrastructure projects if re-elected. -------------- -------------- COMMERCIALS HIT THE AIRWAVES, CAMPAIGNS GO NEGATIVE -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Both parties have posted billboard advertisements around Ulaanbaatar, and television stations have been airing campaign ads. One Elbegdorj television ad depicts Enkhbayar climbing onto a horse, then shows the horse collapsing beneath him with a broken back. The picture then pans to Elbegdorj masterfully riding a horse across the steppe wearing traditional Mongolian clothing and swinging a lasso. The MPRP issued a response to the horse commercial, in which they claimed that the horse Elbegdorj rode in the commercial was actually a female horse (evidenced by the colt following her) and criticized him for not being able to distinguish the horse,s gender. In the response, the MPRP asked, "When riding a female horse, can you ride over a mountain?" ¶6. (SBU) NGO Globe International conducted a two-day survey of campaign coverage and political advertisements on five different Mongolian television stations (including neutral, as well as DP- and MPRP-leaning stations). According to Globe, during that time period, the five channels aired a combined nine hours of presidential campaign commercials and coverage. Enkhbayar's commercials and coverage accounted for three hours and 33 minutes of that time, while Elbegdorj,s accounted for five hours and 28 minutes. The MPRP's advertisements and coverage about the DP were disproportionately negative; they aired 38 minutes of negative information about Elbegdorj, while the DP aired just nine minutes of negative information about Enkhbayar. The Elbegdorj camp has mentioned this proportion in its most recent ads. -------------- -------------- RACE REMAINS TIGHT; ABSENCE OF INDEPENDENT POLLING -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The race appears to remain tight, but an absence of reliable polling makes it difficult to ascertain where each candidate stands going into the election. A local independent polling agency, Sant Maral, decided not to conduct polling during the presidential campaign after receiving pressure from political parties. Additional polling data is unlikely to emerge, since election law prohibits polling during the final week of a campaign. Polls conducted in recent weeks by private media affiliated with the DP reported that Elbegdorj had a slight edge over Enkhbayar, although the MPRP-leaning daily newspaper Zuuny Medee (Century News) posted a poll on May 18 that put Enkhbayar nine points ahead of Elbegdorj. A poll conducted by TV9 -- which our contacts believe is closely linked with Enkhbayar -- also showed the president in the lead. -------------- CORRUPTION CHARGES PLAGUE BOTH PARTIES -------------- ¶8. (C) Although a January 1 law forbids civil servants from holding membership in any political party, some civil servants have complained to us that the MPRP pressured them to participate in campaigns. During a trip last week to Mongolia's far eastern region, one civil servant working in the office of the governor of Dornod aimag told us he was very busy because the MPRP governor required him to help with Enkhbayar's campaign. ¶9. (SBU) The MPRP-affiliated NGO "Justice and Election" earlier this month accused Elbegdorj of accepting campaign contributions from a South Korean religious group in violation of election law (NOTE: Candidates are prohibited by law from accepting donations from foreign citizens and organizations. END NOTE.) The DP dismissed these allegations as false, but the MPRP asked the General Election Committee (GEC) to investigate. The GEC, however, said it was unable to investigate because the alleged incident took place prior to the official start of the campaign. -------------- -------------- ENKHBAYAR APPEALS TO HERDERS; ELBEGDORJ TOUTS CHANGE -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Both candidates have peddled relatively general campaign platforms, focusing on broad themes and generalities rather than specific policy issues. Elbegdorj's platform has centered on issues of change, honesty, equality, and anti-corruption, while Enkhbayar has pledged to give each citizen 1.5 million togrogs in wealth sharing from mining proceeds, a promise made frequently by both parties in recent campaigns that has yet to be realized. Enkhbayar has also appealed to rural Mongolians by promising to exempt them from income taxes, by extending the repayment period of bank loans to herders, and by promising free tuition for all students. ¶11. (SBU) Elbegdorj has proposed a series of debates on issues including education, social policies, mining, the judiciary, and corruption. Although Enkhbayar did not respond to the proposal for some time, the two are now set to hold a televised debate on Thursday, May 21, at 9:00 p.m. UB time. A senior advisor to the president told us that Enkhbayar was busy in these last few days before the election preparing for the debate. MINTON