REACTING TO THE OCTOBER 25 TUNISIAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000789 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC TS SUBJECT: REACTING TO THE OCTOBER 25 TUNISIAN ELECTIONS REF: A. TUNIS 780 ¶B. TUNIS 769 ¶C. TUNIS 760 ¶D. TUNIS 748 ¶E. TUNIS 746 ¶F. TUNIS 741 ¶G. TUNIS 694 AND PREVIOUS Classified by Ambassador Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Tunisia will hold presidential and legislative elections on October 25. In this carefully engineered, non-competitive process, President Ben Ali and the ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally will win by large margins. No credible independent observers, foreign or domestic, have been invited to participate, but the Embassy will be dispatching ten officers to assess election-day atmospherics. The Embassy believes a pointed USG condemnation of the process would not advance the democratic cause in Tunisia, but we should also avoid any statements the GOT would repackage and market as a U.S. endorsement of Ben Ali's re-election. End summary. -------------- The Elections -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 25, Tunisia will hold its presidential and legislative elections. Having carefully engineered the electoral playing field, there is no doubt that President Ben Ali will easily win his fifth five-year mandate. The ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD) will retain three quarters of parliamentary seats; the remaining quarter is reserved for the (divided) opposition. ¶3. (C) As discussed reftels, attitudes among the Tunisian public toward the election range from apathy and resignation to extreme frustration. Some will not vote at all, but many will go to the polls only because local RCD minders will notice if they do not and their jobs or other benefits may be on the line. Despite this frustration, Ben Ali's re-election is unlikely to prompt demonstrations or other protests during or after the elections. -------------- Observers -------------- ¶4. (C) The GOT has not invited any credible independent election observers, foreign or domestic, to participate. Representatives of the international media, closely monitored by the GOT, may accurately report on election conditions, but the "rest of the story" will come out through individual Tunisians and uninvited journalists using the Internet. There are approximately 88,000 Tunisians on Facebook alone and several independent Internet news outlets focus exclusively on Tunisia. ¶5. (C) On election day, the Embassy will be dispatching ten officers to unofficially observe, both in Tunis proper and in population centers in the northern and central parts of the country. Since the GOT has not invited any diplomatic participation, our observations will be atmospheric rather than technical. -------------- Recommended Public Stance -------------- ¶6. (C) The Embassy recommends against issuing a statement condemning the lack of fairness and transparency in the election process. The USG did not comment on President Bouteflika's re-election earlier this year, and many of the circumstances (including amending the constitution to allow the incumbent to run again) are similar. More important, we assess that such a statement would not be effective in opening greater political space in Tunisia. ¶7. (C) At the same time, we recommend against any sort of USG congratulatory message to President Ben Ali or the GOT. The GOT and the state-controlled media will seize upon any USG message, no matter how nuanced, as an endorsement of President Ben Ali's re-election. Such a USG statement would also demoralize Tunisian democracy advocates, already frustrated by the lack of freedom in these elections. GRAY