GOT LAYS OUT INVESTMENT STRATEGY IN 11TH ANNUAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000450 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EEB/IFD/OMA, EEB/EPPD, AND NEA/MAG (HAYES) STATE PASS USTR (BURKHEAD) AND USAID (MCCLOUD) USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/ONE (MASON),ADVOCACY CTR (TABINE),AND CLDP (TEJTEL AND MCMANUS) USDOC PASS USPTO (ADAMS, BROWN AND MARSHALL) CASABLANCA FOR FCS (ORTIZ) RABAT FOR FAS (HASSAN) CAIRO FOR FINANCIAL ATTACHE (SEVERENS) LONDON AND PARIS FOR NEA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019 TAGS: EINV ECON EFIN ETRD FAO TS SUBJECT: GOT LAYS OUT INVESTMENT STRATEGY IN 11TH ANNUAL CARTHAGE INVESTMENT FORUM REF: TUNIS 371 Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The 11th Annual Carthage Investment Forum, held in Hammamet June 24-25, was the GOT's chance to showcase Tunisia as an investment destination. The Forum, which brought out high-level GOT representation, highlighted some non-traditional sectors of the economy, such as aviation, tech offshoring, and health tourism. Experts discussed opportunities for Tunisia in the wake of the economic crisis and ambitious plans to expand manufacturing exports and become a Euromed offshoring destination. However, the real foreign direct investment (FDI) picture remains to be seen. While the IMF and the GOT maintain FDI is strong, real FDI inflows for 2009 have decreased over 35 percent from 2008. The GOT tried to woo investors with the Forum, but in setting out some unrealistically ambitious goals, may have fallen short of expectations. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Big Names and Odd Remarks at the Opening Ceremony -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The 11th Annual Carthage Investment Forum, put on by the Tunisian Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA), brought out the big names in Tunisian government and industry. The speakers included Prime Minister Ghannouchi, Minister of Development and Economic Cooperation (MDIC) Jouini, the Minister of Industry, the Minister of Communications, the Minister of Health, and high-level representatives of the Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade and Handicraft (UTICA). In addition, the Mayor of Marseilles Jean Claude Gaudin and the American 2004 Nobel Laureate in Economics Edward Prescott were present. Ghannouchi spoke at length about the resilience of the Tunisian economy to the international economic crisis, citing growth estimates of five percent for 2009 (Note: this is in contrast to the recent IMF downward revision of three percent growth for this year.) Jouini mentioned plans for Tunisia to become a regional shipping hub through the port of Enfidha and gave an overview of the sectors to be discussed during the forum. ¶3. (C) Nobel Laureate Edward Prescott, who was invited by the GOT earlier this year to conduct panels and workshops on economic issues, praised Tunisia for its economic policies, adding that he only wished the United States "would listen to Tunisia and enact some of the same policies, and not those of the current Obama administration." The statement met with limited applause, which Prescott seized upon to continue on a lengthy critique of the USG's economic recovery programs. He also called Minister Jouini by his first name and then mispronounced the Prime Minister's last name, but not before plugging his appearance the following day at a Certified Public Accountants' conference. From the panel on stage, Ghannouchi looked directly at the Ambassador and Econ/Commercial Officer, who were sitting in the front row, and did a quick "eye roll." -------------- --- The Economic Crisis as an Opportunity for Reform -------------- --- ¶4. (SBU) On June 25th, the Forum started with a panel on the international economic crisis and Tunisia's attractiveness in the wake of a global slowdown. Panelists included experts from the World Bank and the OECD as well as Secretary of State of the MDIC Triki, who said Tunisia had fared better than some other emerging economies. Anthony O'Sullivan, Head of Private Sector Development at the OECD, forecasted growth and inflation at five percent for 2009. He commended Tunisia for good IT infrastructure and for efforts to expand ADSL throughout the country (Ref A). He also applauded the GOT's transparency in publishing a list of negative practices which affected investment. ¶5. (SBU) O'Sullivan outlined various long-run reforms Tunisia should undertake to mitigate the effects of the crisis. He called for further liberalization of telecom, a stronger link between small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and foreign investment, and the creation of special trade zones with better links to the local economy. O'Sullivan said it was fundamental for the GOT to include the private sector in the reforms, since success had to depend on more than just ministry willingness. He noted Tunisia needed to strengthen the ability of courts to rule on matters of intellectual property to give investors some measure of protection. He criticized the GOT for focusing too much on offshoring, recommending instead the creation of competitiveness poles to bring together academics and foreign investors. He closed by saying none of these reforms were possible without the GOT's political will. ¶6. (SBU) MDIC's Triki was optimistic about Tunisia's options. He said Tunisia had a healthy margin to undertake fiscal stimulus measures since they only had a budget deficit in 2008 of two percent of GDP. During the last global shock of this kind, Tunisia had very high debt service ratio (Note: Triki's figures jive with IMF estimates given earlier this year.) Triki also mentioned growth figures, noting his expectation of 3.5 percent real GDP growth for 2009 and 4.5-5 percent for 2010. He said the GOT was replacing its five-year development plans with three-year flexible plans to incorporate recovery measures. -------------- - Ambitious Plans for Aviation and Manufacturing -------------- - ¶7. (SBU) The Forum's second panel focused on mechanical, electric and aviation industries, branding Tunisia as an industrial hub with high added value. The panelists included Afif Chelbi, Minister of Industry, Energy and SMEs and Philippe Cussonet, President of GITAS (the Tunisian Aerospace Industries Association). Minister of Industry Chelbi said by 2016, Tunisian industry would be split between traditional and emerging sectors. Plans are to double total exports and triple manufacturing exports by 2016. He said Tunisia was the largest independent exporter south of Italy, and traded over 7 billion euros with the EU in the auto and aeronautical sector last year. He said Tunisia was a good investment location because it has over 5,000 engineers, seven percent of GDP allotted for education, and students make up four percent of the population (30 percent of those are studying IT, engineering, or science). ¶8. (SBU) Philippe Cussonet, President of GITAS, discussed the aerospace industry, characterizing it as a young industry with fast growth. He said the GOT has made it a priority sector and announced the creation of the Aerolia Aeronautic Park, to start production in late 2009. Cussonet noted there were currently 50 companies operating in this sector in Tunisia, employing 2,000 people in aircraft parts manufacturing and related services. He also described GITAS as a holding group, with 19 private sector members, whose objective is to partner with the GOT to represent the industry and promote a good business environment. According to Cussonet, by 2013-2014, the sector will employ 4,000-4,500 people. -------------- Tunisia: A Tech Offshoring Destination -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The panel on offshoring, IT and electronics included Minister of Communications El Hadj Gley, General Manager of LG Electronics Tunisia MJ Leon, and General Director of Hewlett-Packard Sami Smaoui. The Minister said IT and telecommunications make up 10 percent of GDP (set to contribute 13.5 percent in 2015) and that there are over 210 call centers in Tunisia. He said per capita internet reach was six times that of Egypt, seven times that of Senegal, and had experienced a 114 percent mean growth rate over the last year. Consumer rates, according to the Ministry, are expected to decrease 25-50 percent in 2009. Gley outlined an ambitious action plan to turn Tunisia into a tech offshoring destination. He said the GOT had already fostered competition by awarding a tender for fixed/mobile telephony and was offering fiber-optic cable in 55 administrative zones (with 300 new zones to be connected soon.) He also announced two new technology parks: El Ghazala Ennahli, a 36-hectare space, and El Ghazala Manouba, 54 hectares and located next to a university. ¶10. (SBU) The private sector participation in this panel (LG and HP) had positive things to say about Tunisia's investment climate. LG has only been in country for one year, but has already built a global R & D center in Tunis. LG's overall goal to increase global mobile telephone market share from 8.6 percent in 2008 to over 10 percent in 2009 will be reached with input from the research done at this center. Leon described the Tunisian market as stable and open to new technology. Sami Smaoui of HP, who recently announced the creation of an HP Global Delivery Center (one of five in the world) in Tunisia, praised the availability of skilled, affordable labor as one of the main factors leading HP to make such a large investment. -------------- Robust Plans for Health Tourism -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The final general panel dealt with health services in Tunisia and featured Minister of Public Health Mondher Zenaidi, Boubaker Zakhama, the President of the National Employers' Federation of Private Sanitary Institutions, and Jean Louis Poiroux, the founder of Spas Cinq Mondes. Zenaidi referenced positive overall developmental indicators (vaccination, infant mortality) as well as export revenues of US $230 million in 2007 in health services. He described a vibrant pharmaceutical industry, with 41 Tunisian pharmaceutical companies operating, producing 46 percent of consumed medication in 2007. Tunisia exported 40 million TND (US $29 million) in medication last year, and received 112,213 foreigners in private Tunisian clinics. ¶12. (SBU) Tunisia is second in Africa as a medical tourism destination. According to Zakhama, 72 percent of foreign patients are from Libya, the rest from sub-Saharan Africa (12 percent) and Europe (10 percent). Of total patients in Tunisia, foreigners make up 23 percent. There are over 104 private clinics (16 percent of the hospital sector) and over 2,000 basic public health care centers nationwide. Zenaidi projected that the health sector in general will grow 20 percent per year until 2016. To foster this growth, the GOT will partner with international organizations and social security/medical insurance groups, increase services in other surgical fields, create a market strategy for investment promotion, create medical/tourism "cities" following the Thai example, and encourage elderly visitors to come for longer holidays. ¶13. (SBU) Thalassotherapy, a term referring to salt water spa treatments, is an important subset of the tourism industry in Tunisia (second only to France.) Spa services draw over 200,000 visitors (of the seven million annual tourists). According to Jean Luis Poiroux of Cinq Spas, an important investor in this sector, the largest market for spa services is the United States, with 33 million consumers of spa treatments. Europe is also a large consumer. By his estimate, including spa services alongside the normal tourist offer would increase the per-capita expenditure of tourists by an average of 40 euros, and would capture a new market of European travelers. -------------- Bottom Line: Is FDI Increasing? -------------- ¶14. (SBU) According to IMF experts, who were in-country for much of June on an Article IV consultation mission, the external position of Tunisia remains solid in part due to strong FDI flows. The IMF met with the same ministries that participated in the Forum, along with the Central Bank. However, the Central Bank's own statistics, released mid-June, noted that FDI had decreased 35.5 percent year-on-year since 2008, and foreign investment in portfolios had decreased 84.5 percent. The discrepancy is likely due to the calculation of FDI - the Central Bank records actual currency flows while ministries include signed projects and projected FDI. The bottom line is that actual FDI flows are down, but they could increase over the calendar year as planned investments materialize. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶15. (SBU) The 11th Annual Carthage Investment Forum represented an attempt on the part of the GOT to highlight Tunisia's positive investment climate but also to garner investment in emerging high-tech and knowledge-based sectors. Representatives of Tunisia's more established sectors, such as textiles and auto parts manufacturing, were absent from the forum, as was any straight talk on the effects of the economic crisis on exports. Many of the goals put forward by GOT representatives bordered on the unrealistically ambitious, such as the goal of doubling exports in seven years. However, the GOT is undertaking some much-needed reforms, such as opening up the telecom sector, that will be necessary to continue drawing investment. Although the GOT projects strong FDI, it remains to be seen if substantial investment will come to fruition. There has already been some cancellation of construction projects funded by Gulf states, and it is possible other projected investments could also fall through. Please visit Embassy Tunis' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/tunis/index.c fm Godec