HEAD OF LIBYAN "THINK TANK" OUTLINES HUMAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 000386



SIPDIS



STATE FOR NEA/MAG; COMMERCE FOR NATE MASON; ENERGY FOR GINA

ERICKSON; PARIS AND LONDON FOR NEA WATCHERS; CAIRO FOR ALEX

SEVERENS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/7/2019

TAGS: ECON, PGOV, LY, EFIN

SUBJECT: HEAD OF LIBYAN "THINK TANK" OUTLINES HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

STRATEGY



REF: 08 TRIPOLI 917



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CLASSIFIED BY: J. Chris Stevens, CDA, U.S. Embassy Tripoli, U.S.

Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Summary: Mahmoud Jibril, Chair of the National Economic

Development Board and the former head of the National Planning

Council, discussed strategies for developing Libya's human

resources in a recent meeting with the Ambassador. Jibril

highlighted the need to replace the country's decrepit

infrastructure and train Libyans to maintain and run their new

airports, schools and hospitals. Jibril welcomed American

companies, universities and hospitals to participate in this

endeavor. End summary.



LIBYA'S "THINK TANK" TACKLES PROJECT PLANNING AFTER THE FACT



2. (C) The Ambassador discussed Libya's human development

strategy in a May 6 courtesy call on Mahmoud Jibril, Chair of

the National Economic Development Board (NEDB),an organization

that Jibril likened to a "think tank" of multi-disciplinary

experts. Before the March 2009 cabinet shuffle, Jibril was

simultaneously in charge of the NEDB and the National Planning

Council, but now he directs only the NEDB. He reports directly

to the prime minister. A U.S.-educated PhD in strategic

planning, Jibril touched on familiar themes, such as Libya's

need to diversify its economy away from oil (reftel),but he

also fleshed out how Libya is tracking 11,000 development

projects.



3. (C) According to Jibril, there are 11,000 development

projects in Libya spanning several sectors, with the bulk of

projects focusing on infrastructure. The NEDB's role in these

projects is to "pave the way" for private sector development,

and to create a strategic partnership between private companies

and the government. There is a still a "gap of distrust"

dividing the two. As to whether Libya has a Master Plan that

includes all the 11,000 projects, Jibril admitted that in the

past two years, Libya had started executing projects without

such a plan. However, the NEDB has been working with experts

from Ernst and Young, the Oxford Group, and lately with five

consultants from UNDP to advise the prime minister on the best

sequencing and pacing of the projects in order to decrease

poverty and unemployment. He explained they were developing a

"mapping room" to show all the projects, in a similar way to how

a navy tracks its submarines all over the world. This "room"

will use econometric models to demonstrate the results of

different plans. The NEDB also plans to publish an assessment

of the projects Libya has embarked on thus far, including plans

for the future, in July. Companies in various sectors that

might have an interest in working in Libya would be able to

review the data and decide if any of the projects were

attractive enough for them to invest in. In the meanwhile, he

said the General People's Committee for Planning (Ministry of

Planning-equivalent) should be able to provide details on

Libya's ongoing and projected projects.



BRICKS, MORTAR AND HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE



4. (C) Jibril stressed that Libya needs not only new schools,

houses, hospitals, and roads but also a plan to manage and

maintain all these new facilities and projects. This would

involve training Libyans and in effect, "rebuilding human

beings." He said the United States could help by encouraging

people-to-people contacts. He suggested U.S. universities be

paired with Libyan ones. If a U.S. educational institution were

established in Libya, in his view, this would be a lasting

investment that would withstand any political changes, citing

the examples of the American Universities of Beirut and Cairo.



5. (C) As for opportunities for U.S. companies, Jibril said

Libya was "opening widely and very fast" and that the world

economic crisis had not hit Libya. He characterized the economy

as being "in a liquid phase, and not yet solidified," with many

opportunities for foreign companies willing to take the risk to

come here. He recommended U.S. firms focus on strategic

projects, i.e., ones that touch people's lives, such as

education and healthcare. Libya would also need help managing

facilities, such as airports. He contrasted Libya to the Gulf

area, which he thought would remain unstable for the next ten

years due to tensions with Iran. Libya, on the other hand, has

a stable regime and is "virgin country" for investors.



6. (C) Regarding possible programs with the U.S. Embassy in

Tripoli, Jibril noted NEDB was still reviewing six proposals

from American universities to train Libyan diplomats. He

expected the internal review to take another week. A U.S.

proposal in the economic sphere, via the U.S. Department of

Commerce Commercial Law Development Program, would send NEDB



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staff on a study tour of small business incubators in the U.S.

This had to be postponed until September or October in order to

give the NEDB staff time to assess the needs of their business

advising program.



7. (C) Comment: With a PhD in strategic planning from the

University of Pittsburgh, Jibril is a serious interlocutor who

"gets" the U.S. perspective. He is also not shy about sharing

his views of U.S. foreign policy, for example, opining that the

U.S. spoiled a golden opportunity to capitalize on its "soft

power" (McDonald's, etc.) after the fall of the Soviet Union in

1989 by putting "boots on the ground" in the Middle East. At

the same time, his organization has a daunting task to tackle,

in terms of rationalizing 11,000 development projects in the

chaotic Libyan government bureaucracy and also, to train Libyans

to work in new sectors outside of the hydrocarbons industry.

Jibril has stated American companies and universities are

welcome to join him in this endeavor and we should take him up

on his offer. End comment.

CRETZ