FDI IS BRIGHT SPOT IN JAPAN'S ECONOMIC GLOOM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 000099 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP AMBASSADOR HASLACH AND EAP/J DEPT ALSO FOR EEB/IFD DEPT PASS USTR FOR CUTLER AND BEEMAN USDOC FOR 4410/ITA/MAC/OJ JUSTICE FOR ANTITRUST DIVISION - CHEMTOB TREASURY DEPT FOR IA/CARNES AND POGGI GENEVA FOR USTR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EINV ECON PGOV OECD JA SUBJECT: FDI IS BRIGHT SPOT IN JAPAN'S ECONOMIC GLOOM REF: A. 08 TOKYO 3542 ¶B. 08 TOKYO 3417 ¶C. 08 TOKYO 2029 ¶D. 08 TOKYO 1421 ¶E. 08 TOKYO 1337 ¶F. 08 TOKYO 1950 ¶G. 08 TOKYO 402 Sensitive But Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a relative bright spot in the Japanese economy despite global economic difficulties. Although recent financial market turmoil reduced the pace of Japan's FDI inflows, those flows remain positive. The GOJ is quietly pursuing policy initiatives intended to improve Japan's investment climate that could, as the global economic picture improves, lead to greater FDI inflows. The Cabinet Office and METI are drafting a new investment promotion strategy, Japan's first since 2006, in response to recommendations in the May 2008 Investment Experts Report. The Ministry's Corporate Value Study Group updated its guidelines on adopting corporate takeover defenses. METI also established a study group to examine the issue of outside directors on corporate boards and to recommend whether the GOJ should revise the definition of "outside" and require all listed companies to have a minimum number of such directors, something the USG has long advocated in the Regulatory Reform Initiative. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) Amidst Japan's recent gloomy economic outlook (Ref B),FDI has been a relative bright spot. Although Japan's FDI inflows between January and November 2008 were down 13.2 percent compared to the same period in 2007, those flows remain positive. This deceleration of inward FDI largely reflects dramatically reduced global liquidity rather than Japan-specific factors. ¶3. (SBU) Meanwhile, Japan's overall FDI stock continues to rise. As of September 2008, the latest figures available, Japan's FDI stock was 17.02 trillion yen, equivalent to 3.3 percent of nominal GDP, according to preliminary Ministry of Finance (MOF) figures, and up 12 percent from the end of CY2007. This figure does not reflect the November 2008 sale of combined 700 million dollars in stakes in Suzuki Motors and Mazda by U.S. automakers General Motors and Ford, respectively. The GOJ continues to promote the national goal of raising Japan's FDI stock to the equivalent of five percent of GDP by the end of FY2010 (March 2011),although GOJ investment officials admit privately this goal may be difficult to achieve given the current economic climate. ¶4. (U) On the portfolio side, non-resident investors, both individual and institutional, were net sellers of Tokyo-listed stocks in 2008 for the first time since 2002. Between January and December, foreigners sold, on balance, 7.38 trillion yen (USD 82 billion at current exchange rates) worth of shares in Japanese companies. The most aggressive selling took place in March and April, when the Nikkei 225 benchmark index was well above current levels, and again between July and November as the global credit crunch hit. M&A Also Down but Not Out -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The severe tightening of global liquidity has had a similar effect on the value and volume of merger and acquisition (M&A) deals involving Japanese companies. The total number of M&A transactions involving Japanese companies fell 11 percent to 2399 while the value of those deals was down marginally to 12.5 trillion yen, according to Tokyo-based M&A consultancy Recof. The value of deals involving foreign purchases of Japanese companies -- always a TOKYO 00000099 002 OF 004 small subset of the total amount -- fell even further, down 82 percent to 503 billion yen. Although the number and value of Japanese-related M&A deals in 2008 declined to its 2004 level, it was still the fourth highest amount on record. Government Policy Quietly Positive -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In the midst of this gloomy economic news, the GOJ has begun to take a number of positive steps to improve Japan's overall investment climate. Although GOJ policies are by no means countering the impact of the global financial crisis on inward investment, they may have prevented an even worse outcome by reversing a string of negative international press reports about Japan's investment climate between January and May. ¶7. (SBU) Within the bureaucracy, officials continue quietly implementing the pro-FDI policy direction set out by then-Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Hiroko Ota in the first half of 2008. Ota's chief success was establishing the Investment Experts Committee under prominent pro-reform economist Professor Haruo Shimada. The group, which included the Presidents of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan and the European Business Council, submitted a report in June 2008 recommending measures the GOJ should take to dramatically expand inward FDI (Ref D). The Committee's recommendations, all of which echoed proposals the USG has advocated in the Regulatory Reform and Investment Initiatives, urged the GOJ to: (1) Clarify rules governing the introduction of anti-takeover defense measures and to examine why foreign investors have not made more use of the triangular merger provisions in the 2006 Company law;" (2) Conduct a "comprehensive study" of the scope and grounds for national security or public order restrictions on foreign investment based, which were used in the May 2008 J-Power case; (Ref E-F); (3) Identify priority sectors for the promotion of inward FDI that have the potential to revitalize the Japanese economy or improve citizens quality of life, with special emphasis on improving citizens' access to advanced medical devices and pharmaceuticals; (4) Reduce business costs, in part by lowering corporate tax rates, and increase regulatory transparency; and 5) Develop strategies to promote regional economic revitalization through attraction of foreign capital. Since the issuance of the Committee report, the GOJ has taken steps to implement each of the recommendations. Cabinet Office Preparing New Investment Strategy -------------- --- ¶8. (SBU) The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy incorporated the main thrust of the Shimada Committee report into the government's annual Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy document issued in July 2008. Since then, the Cabinet office has begun drafting a new national investment strategy, the first since June 2006, which should be complete by the end of January 2009. ¶9. (SBU) Two key pillars of that strategy, according to a top official in METI Trade and Investment Facilitation Division, are tax relief for certain types of portfolio investors and new programs to encourage FDI in Japan's regions. The GOJ is concerned that currently 80 percent of inward FDI goes to Tokyo and its three neighboring prefectures. As part of this strategy, METI and JETRO will organize up to six regional investment matching seminars in 2009 focused on foreign companies with existing investments in Tokyo. The aim is to encourage these companies to expand operations to other parts of the country. This approach matches a pattern Toyota successfully followed in the mid-1980s when it expanded from its Nagoya base to set up manufacturing plants in Miyagi and Northern Kyushu. TOKYO 00000099 003 OF 004 ¶10. (SBU) The Cabinet Office at the same time has begun to target seminars at regional government economic promotion officials, focusing on prefectures with little existing FDI. The aim is to accelerate inward FDI into Japan's regions, provide training to local economic development officials on investment promotion strategies, and disseminate information on past "success stories" of foreign investors in the Japanese market. The first seminar takes place January 30 in Matsuyama, Ehime prefecture. ¶11. (U) Even before the new investment strategy is complete, the GOJ included in its annual year-end tax amendment legislation a proposal to eliminate capital gains for non-residents who own shares in Japanese firms through investment funds. The aim is to promote additional portfolio investment. The current withholding rate on such gains is 40 percent. To be eligible for the proposed exemption, the funds must hold the stake for a minimum of one year. METI Becomes Proactive on M&A Rules -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Simultaneous with the drafting of the Shimada Committee report, METI reconstituted its Corporate Value Study Group (CVSG) to re-examine the issue of corporate takeover defenses. Since the last CVSG report on the subject in 2005, more than 500 listed companies had adopted some form of takeover defense, a trend that foreign investors and equity analysts sharply criticized. Mid-level METI officials recognized the defense measures many firms had adopted were inconsistent with joint METI-Ministry of Justice guidelines and were undermining investor confidence in Japan. The study group issued its report in July 2008, immediately fulfilling one of the Shimada Committee's recommendations. The report included the statement that shareholders and management have "common interests in increasing corporate value", and M&A, even if hostile, can have a potential positive impact on the corporate value of the target company. The report emphasized that improper implementation of takeover defense measures "deprives shareholders who support a takeover bid of the opportunity to sell their shares to a potential acquirer" and that it is never acceptable to use takeover defenses for the purpose of entrenching management. ¶13. (SBU) Such a pro-FDI report from a ministry that at times had been publically critical of the increasing amount of hostile M&A since 2005 was a welcome change of tone. A few months earlier, then-METI Vice Minister Takao Kitabata had publically criticized U.S-based investment fund Steel Partners as an example of the "greedy" and "irresponsible" behavior of activist shareholders (Ref G). ¶14. (SBU) In another sign of changing METI attitudes, foreign fund managers report ministry officials have begun engaging them to discuss Japan's investment climate. While the two sides do not always agree, the fund managers say they are satisfied METI officials are at least willing to listen. A senior executive of Steel Partners Japan even credited the CVSG report and its active promotion by METI officials with triggering a more cooperative attitude among executives of companies in which the fund invests and an increased willingness of those managers to listen to Steel's suggestions for corporate improvement. Re-examining the Issue of Independent Directors -------------- - ¶15. (SBU) The same METI Division Director who oversees the CVSG established a Corporate Governance Study Group in December 2008 tasked with examining Japan's current corporate governance structures and advising on possible changes to Japan's company Law. Specifically, METI asked the new study group, chaired by Tokyo University Law Professor Hideki Kanda TOKYO 00000099 004 OF 004 and including 21 business executives, lawyers, and academic experts on corporate law, to examine whether listed firms should have a minimum number of outside directors on their boards and whether the current legal definition of "outside director" is adequate to protect the interests of minority shareholders, especially in cases in which parent and subsidiary companies are separately listed. The Study Group's mandate includes several issues the USG has included in its commercial law-related recommendations in recent Regulatory Reform Initiative reports. The Study Group's work is expected to be completed by June 2009. Security Related FDI Rules -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Similarly, in response to another of the Shimada Committee's recommendations, the GOJ in late December established a director general-level inter-ministerial liaison group tasked with reviewing existing GOJ regulations that govern approval of FDI in sensitive sectors. The group will review which sectors are covered by the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law and may also make recommendations regarding the review process for potentially sensitive transactions. A report to the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy is due by March 2009. ZUMWALT