DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/03/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 000484 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/03/09 INDEX: (1) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties (Asahi) (2) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties (Mainichi) (3) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties (Nikkei) (4) Ozawa political support groups to be investigated in connection with contributions from Nishimatsu Construction (Asahi) (5) CO2 emissions cuts: Cost also challenge; Six proposals for mid-term goal to be narrowed down (Asahi) (6) TOP HEADLINES (7) EDITORIALS (8) Prime Minister's schedule, March 2 (Nikkei) ARTICLES: (1) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) February 21, 2009 Questions & Answers (Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. Bracketed figures denote proportions to all respondents. Figures in parentheses denote the results of the last survey conducted Feb. 7-8.) Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? Yes 13 (14) No 75 (73) Q: Why? (One reason only. Left column for those marking "yes" on previous question, and right for those saying "no.") The prime minister is Mr. Aso 15(2) 15(11) It's an LDP-led cabinet 40(5) 20(15) From the aspect of policies 22(3) 51(39) Cabinet lineup 6(1) 9(7) Q: Which political party do you support now? Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 25 (22) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 26 (25) New Komeito (NK) 3 (3) Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 (3) Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1) People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0) Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 (0) New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) Other political parties 0 (0) None 39 (43) No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 4 (3) Q: Do you think the House of Representatives should be dissolved as early as possible for a general election, or do you otherwise think there is no need to hurry? TOKYO 00000484 002 OF 009 Dissolve as early as possible 64 (60) 
No need to hurry 28 (31) Q: If you were to vote now in a general election for the House of Representatives, which political party would you vote for in your proportional representation bloc? LDP 22 (22) DPJ 42 (42) NK 3 (3) JCP 4 (3) SDP 2 (1) PNP 0 (0) RC 0 (0) NPN 0 (0) Other political parties 1 (1) N/A+D/K 26 (28) Q: Which one between Prime Minister Aso and DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa do you think is more appropriate for prime minister? Mr. Aso 19 (20) Mr. Ozawa 45 (39) Q: Would you like Mr. Aso to remain in office as prime minister, or would you otherwise like him to quit early? Remain in office 15 Quit early 71 Q: Finance Minister Nakagawa has resigned for being woozy during a press conference after an international conference. Do you think Prime Minister Aso, who appointed Mr. Nakagawa to his ministerial post, is very responsible, or not very responsible? Very responsible 50 Not very responsible 43 Q: Do you think Prime Minister Aso's response over Finance Minister Nakagawa was appropriate? Yes 37 No 52 Q: Prime Minister Aso, looking back on the days when he was internal affairs and communications minister in the Koizumi cabinet, said he was not in favor of postal privatization. Is this convincing? Yes 14 No 79 Polling methodology: The survey was conducted from the evening of Feb. 19 through the night of Feb. 20 over the telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on a three-stage random-sampling basis. Valid answers were obtained from 1,044 persons (59 PERCENT ). (2) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) TOKYO 00000484 003 OF 009 February 23, 2009 Questions & Answers (T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female) Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? T P M F Yes 11 (19) 10 12 No 73 (65) 76 70 Not interested 14 (15) 13 15 Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the above question) Why? T P M F Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 26 (29) 24 28 Because something can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 9 (12) 12 7 Because there's something friendly about the prime minister 24 (26) 25 23 Because something can be expected of the prime minister's policy measures 31 (18) 34 28 Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the above question) Why? T P M F Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 5 (6) 7 4 Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 44 (33) 41 47 Because there's something imprudent about the prime minister 19 (14) 20 18 Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's policy measures 31 (45) 32 30 Q: Which political party do you support? T P M F Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 20 (20) 20 19 Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 29 (26) 37 21 New Komeito (NK) 3 (5) 2 3 Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 (3) 1 4 Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1) 1 1 People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0) 0 0 Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 (0) 0 0 New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) 0 -- Other political parties 1 (1) 1 2 None 42 (42) 36 48 Q: The government and the ruling parties plan to hand out a per capita benefit of 12,000 yen. Do you appreciate this cash payout? T P M F Yes 20 (22) 22 19 No 73 (74) 74 73 Q: Finance Minister and Financial Services Minister Nakagawa has resigned to take responsibility for drunkenly meeting the press after an international conference. Do you think Prime Minister Aso is responsible for appointing Nakagawa to his cabinet ministerial posts? TOKYO 00000484 004 OF 009 T P M F Yes 58 61 55 No 37 36 37 Q: Who do you think is more appropriate for prime minister between Prime Minister Aso and DPJ President Ozawa? T P M F Prime Minister Aso 8 (16) 7 8 DPJ President Ozawa 25 (25) 35 15 Neither is appropriate 61 (55) 54 68 Q: Which party between the LDP and the DPJ would you like to see win in the next election for the House of Representatives? T P M F LDP 22 (27) 20 23 DPJ 51 (50) 64 40 Other political parties 16 (16) 10 23 Q: With Finance Minister and Financial Services Minister Nakagawa's resignation as an opportunity, there are calls from within the LDP insisting that Prime Minister Aso should step down. How long do you think Prime Minister Aso should remain in office? T P M F He should quit right away 39 40 37 He should remain in office until next fiscal year's budget passes the Diet 39 38 40 He should remain in office until around this summer 7 8 7 He should remain in office as long as possible 8 10 7 (Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "0" indicates that the figure was below 0.5 PERCENT . "--" denotes that no respondents answered. "No answer" omitted. Figures in parentheses denote the results of the last survey conducted Jan. 24-25. Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Feb. 21-22 over the telephone across the nation on a computer-aided random digit sampling (RDS) basis. A total of 1,593 households with one or more eligible voters were sampled. Answers were obtained from 1,067 persons (67 PERCENT ). (3) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) February 23, 2009 Questions & Answers (Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote findings from the last survey conducted in January.) Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? Yes 15 (19) No 80 (76) Can't say (C/S) + don't know (D/K) 5 (5) Q: Which political party do you support or like? Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 34 (29) TOKYO 00000484 005 OF 009 Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 35 (37) New Komeito (NK) 3 (3) Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 4 (5) Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1) People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0) Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 (0) New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) Other political parties 0 (1) None 17 (16) C/S+D/K 5 (6) (Note) The total percentage does not become 100 PERCENT in some cases due to rounding Polling methodology: The survey was taken Feb. 20-22 by Nikkei Research Inc. by telephone on a random digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey, samples were chosen from among men and women aged 20 and over across the nation. A total of 1,531 households with one or more eligible voters were sampled, and answers were obtained from 960 persons (62.7 PERCENT ). (4) Ozawa political support groups to be investigated in connection with contributions from Nishimatsu Construction ASAHI (Top play) (Excerpt) Eve., March 3, 2009 In connection with political contributions from the Nishimatsu Construction Company (Tokyo),a semi-large-scale general contractor that has been associated with large sums of bribery money at home and abroad, the Tokyo District Special Prosecutors Office as of March 3 has firmed up its intention to investigate the political organizations of Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa on suspicion of violation of the Political Funds Control Law. The various political support groups of President Ozawa have received large sums of money from two political organizations where retired officials from Nishimatsu Construction Company have worked. Reportedly, there is suspicion that persons connected with Ozawa's political groups knowingly accepted the money from Nishimatsu Construction. It is prohibited under the Political Funds Control Law for a corporate contribution to be given under another person's name or to go to anything but a political party. If persons connected with the political organization of the politician knew the money came from Nishimatsu Construction via a group of retired company officials, there is a possibility of the law having been broken, including false reporting in the report of income from political contributions. (5) CO2 emissions cuts: Cost also challenge; Six proposals for mid-term goal to be narrowed down ASAHI (Page 3) (Full) March 2, 2009 With the setting of mid-term goals to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by various countries coming into focus of upcoming international talks, Japan is pressed to make a decision on the extent of such cuts to be achieved by 2020. However, discussions of the cost of cutting CO2 emissions are going along divergent lines. The effort to set out a vision of at what level global warming should be constrained is being left behind. TOKYO 00000484 006 OF 009 Major differences in estimations by research institutes Prime Minister Aso paid close attention to the cost of measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions during discussions on the adoption of a mid-term goal, noting: "We must set a mid-term goal that is implementable in economic terms as well. Just setting a goal high will not do." The government's Mid-Term Goal Review Committee, chaired by Toshihiko Fukui, former Bank of Japan governor, has started discussions on four options, using such data as the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's (METI) long-term energy supply-demand outlook, etc. It is now conducting an analysis of more detailed six proposals. The six proposals are varied, ranging from a case in which carbon emissions are to be constrained to a 6 PERCENT increase from the 1990 level with such efforts as maintaining existing technologies and systems but replacing existing equipment with energy-saving types (proposal 1) to a case in which a 25 PERCENT cut compared with the 1990 level is aimed at, by increasing the number of detached houses equipped with a solar energy generation system (proposal 6). The higher the goal is, the more the cost to achieve it is. However, estimates for actual amount of money differ among various research centers. The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) under the jurisdiction of METI has estimated, centered on a case in which CO2 emissions are cut 4 PERCENT from the 1990 level with the maximum introduction of energy-saving technologies but without setting new restrictions, such as emissions trading or an environment tax (proposal 3). It has calculated that this would require additional investment worth about 52 trillion yen by 2020. Likewise, it has estimated that achieving a 25 PERCENT reduction would require additional investment worth approximately 380 trillion yen. On the other hand, the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIE) under the jurisdiction of the Environment Ministry has estimated that in a case in which energy-saving technologies are introduced to a maximum extent, no additional investment will be required. The organization stresses that even the cost needed for a 25 PERCENT cut would be about 27 trillion yen. One cause of the differences in calculations is how to view future prices of energy saving-type equipment. If the adoption of solar energy generation spreads, the production cost would drop, which will be reflected in prices. NIE has taken the margin of a drop in prices into account. The IEEJ has made estimation, based on current prices, viewing that a fall in future prices would be limited. NIE assumed that the use of solar energy generation will help reduce utility costs, enabling to recover invested funds over several years. However, the IEEJ says that replacements of existing equipment with energy-saving types would not increase, unless the period needed to recover invested funds is considerably long. Executive Director Masahisa Naito of the IEEJ at a meeting of the review committee pointed out, "Industry circles have criticized proposed options, saying that it is difficult to achieve even the case of the maximum introduction of energy-saving equipment." TOKYO 00000484 007 OF 009 Discussions by the panel were divided with Shuzo Nishioka, guest researcher at NIE underscoring: "Investment for energy-saving measures is expenditures for expanding domestic demand. Nurturing related industries will strengthen Japan's international competitiveness." It is said that measures to address damages caused throughout the world by global warming, such as a rise in sea level, drought and floods, would cost dozens of trillions of yen. If sufficient measures are not taken now, it would cost extra money later. Discussions from such a perspective have been put on hold. Impact on achievement of long-term goal Prior to the Hokkaido Lake Toya Summit last summer, the government had set a long-term goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to be achieved by Japan by 2050 at a 60 PERCENT -80 PERCENT decrease from the current level. If a lenient mid-term goal is set, it would become necessary to cut more emissions after 2020. There is a scenario of cutting emissions sharply after 2020, by developing innovative technologies, such carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology, a process whereby CO2 is captured from gases produced by fossil fuel combustion, compressed, transported and injected into deep geographic formations and a new ironmaking process using hydrogen. However, it is not known whether it is possible to reduce emissions with those technologies without fail. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented a report noting that if the temperature rises by 2-3 degrees, its impact would be felt all over the world. Tokyo Institute of Technology Associate Professor Kanie said that if the entire world is to tackle a goal of containing a rise in the temperature at 2 degrees, Japan would need to set a mid-term goal at an 18 PERCENT decrease. The government has not yet indicated its view on to what level such a rise should be constrained. Kanie said, "If it does not come up with a view on that as well as to set a mid-term goal, it would miss its purpose of cutting emissions." (6) TOP HEADLINES Asahi: Staffing firm, formally known as goodwill, to stop sending workers to manufacturers: 4,000 workers registered for engineering work to be trimmed Mainichi: Yomiuri: New York stocks plunge, Dow briefly slips to 12-year low Nikkei: Tripartite emergency forum on employment eyed by government, labor, management: Employment adjustment system, work sharing as safety net Sankei: Taepodong-2: Launch of later this month possible with eye on U.S.-South Korea drill Tokyo Shimbun: AIG reports 9.7 trillion yen in deficit for October-December quarter of 2008 TOKYO 00000484 008 OF 009 Akahata: Japan Federation of Democratic Medical Institutions probes new nursing care need certification system (7) EDITORIALS Asahi: (1) Local governments' finances: Use economic crisis as tool for reform (2) Court decision on fake anti-earthquake work: Responsibility for authorizing building construction heavy Mainichi: (1) Discussion to abolish cost-sharing for public works should be pursued with "revolt" of local governments as occasion (2) Decline in crimes: Police should attach importance to their role of protecting citizens Yomiuri: (1) Slump in auto industry: Emerging markets, environmental technology hold key to secure income sources (2) Improving public security should be precondition for pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq Nikkei: (1) Confrontation between old and new members of EU, where economic crisis is deepening, worrisome (2) Redevelopment of Central Post Office national disgrace? Sankei: (1) World Baseball Classic (WBC): We hope to see exhilarating games by Japanese players (2) Pension finances estimate: Government should show realistic projection Tokyo Shimbun: (1) U.S. should give top priority to Iraq's self-support and stabilization in pulling out its troops (2) Recession and sports: Now is time to reform the consciousness of athletes Akahata: (1) Increase in number of children on waiting list to enter nursery (8) Prime Minister's schedule, March 2 NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) March 3, 2009 07:31 Took a walk around his official residence. 11:23 Met Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura and deputy chief cabinet secretaries Matsumoto, Konoike and Uruma. Kawamura stayed behind. 15:05 Met Central Japan Railway Co. Chairman Yoshiyuki Kasai, CSIS Japan Chair Michael Green, Confederation of Indian Industry Chief Mentor Tarun Das, and others. TOKYO 00000484 009 OF 009 15:45 Met State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Yosano. Joined by METI Minister Nikai, Vice MITI Minister Mochizuki, and Assistant Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda. 17:00 Attended an LDP executive meeting in the Diet Building. 17:53 Arrived at the Kantei. 18:16 Arrived at his private office in Nagata-cho. 18:41 Arrived at his private residence in Kamiyama-cho. 19:02 Met at his official residence with LDP third-term Lower House members, with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto. ZUMWALT