PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR ASO WEAKENS ON EVE OF U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000410 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON JA SUBJECT: PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR ASO WEAKENS ON EVE OF U.S. SUMMIT, BUT LDP HAS FEW OTHER OPTIONS REF: TOKYO 0347 Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt, reasons 1.4(b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The latest polls from a broad range of media outlets show more bad news for Prime Minister Taro Aso and his ruling LDP on every front. Aso's support rate is now the second or third lowest in memory, his non-support rate has hit 80 percent in at least one survey, and he trails opposition DPJ leader Ozawa in measures of personal popularity by as many as 26 points. More ominous for the ruling coalition are poll results indicating that as many as 70 percent of respondents want an election by April, and more than 50 percent want the DPJ to lead the next government. Forced by the February 17 resignation of Finance Minister Nakagawa to delay his timetable for passage of the budget and a key economic stimulus package, Aso faces difficult legislative hurdles upon his return from Washington. While pressure to call an election is likely to increase even further, and Aso faces real divisions within his own party, the LDP has few options for swapping out Aso for a party leader who can reverse the party's downward slide. End summary. Aso Nears Bottom in Polls; Majority Now Support Opposition -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Public support for Aso now ranges from 11 to 15 percent, according to media polls conducted after the resignation of disgraced Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, down from the upper 40s and low 50s just six months ago. Aso is now the second- or third-lowest ranked Prime Minister in post-war history, depending on the poll. His non-support rate in at least one major publication, the Nikkei, has now broken 80 percent, with the others closing in fast. More than 70 percent of respondents want Aso to dissolve the Lower House and call an election by April. Unfortunately for Aso and the ruling coalition, support for an opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)-led government now exceeds 50 percent in nearly every survey, outpacing the LDP by more than 20 points. Aso himself now trails DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa by as much as 26 points in several measures of personal popularity, a near-complete reversal of the results from the period leading up to his election as LDP President in summer ¶2008. A Nikkei poll ranking potential Prime Ministers showed Ozawa in first place, with 17 percent of the votes, followed by former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and three of Aso's opponents in the 2008 LDP Presidential race. Aso came in seventh, with just four percent of the vote. LDP Increasingly Desperate, but Few Alternatives to Aso -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Paradoxically, support for Aso among at least some of the LDP faithful is growing stronger, at least in the short-term, even as his situation becomes more untenable with the public. Many LDP contacts indicated to the Embassy that they would prefer to see a new leader emerge before the next election. Most concede, however, that there are no real prospects to replace him. A recent Asahi poll of the 47 LDP prefectural chapters demonstrates the extent to which the LDP is resigned to Aso for the time-being. Asked whether the LDP should contest the next election under Aso or under a different leader, 30 LDP chapters chose Aso. Their answers, however, tell the real story. "It won't make any difference who becomes Prime Minister" party officials in several prefectures noted. "There's no appropriate person to represent the party," was another common refrain. Many within the LDP are concerned that the public will not tolerate the selection of a fourth Prime Minister based solely on the mandate of the 2005 snap election. LDP Lower House member Akiko Yamanaka told the Embassy recently: "We elected him so now we must support him until the end. Otherwise, we will look foolish." TOKYO 00000410 002 OF 002 Budget Bills First Challenge Awaiting Aso's Return -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) As a result of Nakagawa's resignation, Aso was forced to give up his intention to pass the FY09 regular budget in the Lower House prior to departing for Washington on February ¶23. The goal now is to pass the measure by February 27, but no later than March 2, to ensure it can be enacted before the new fiscal year begins on April 1. (Note: Budgets are considered enacted 30 days after passage in the Lower House. Implementing legislation can be held for up to 60 days in the Upper House, and require a two-thirds majority re-vote in the Lower House if it is rejected by the Upper House.) Aso will also have to contend with legislation necessary to implement his second supplementary FY08 budget, which contains a controversial two trillion yen cash handout intended to help stimulate the economy. The extra budget itself has already passed the Diet, but the cash payments cannot be disbursed without the separate budget-related measure, which has been held by the Upper House since passing Lower House on January ¶13. The press. meanwhile, is having a field day highlighting divisions within the LDP over the cash benefit plan, leading with former Prime Minister Koizumi's statement that he will abstain from a re-vote, and following up with the rivalry between party heavyweights Hidenao Nakagawa, a Koizumi ally, and Nobutaka Machimura over the direction of fiscal policy. ¶5. (C) The ruling coalition is taking a cautious approach, according to press reports, knowing that acting too aggressively could incite a strong response from the opposition. Faced with continued opposition boycotts and delays in the aftermath of the resignation of disgraced Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa on February 17, LDP Diet Affairs Chief Tadamori Oshima was forced to concede publicly that "deliberations have been insufficient," and promise not to force a vote on the regular FY09 budget before Aso's return from the United States. His DPJ counterpart, Kenji Yamaoka, pledged in return that his party would not deliberately delay discussions. Embassy contacts confirm reports that Aso will immediately seek to follow passage of the regular FY09 budget with a supplementary budget for FY09, hoping to fund additional stimulus measures. ¶6. (C) Passage of the regular budget, a possible supplementary budget, and all of the related implementing legislation could occupy the Diet well into April, after which calls for an election are likely to increase, according to Embassy contacts. If Aso fails to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election in April or May, those contacts say, he will probably try to stay in office until his term expires in September. Many of his LDP colleagues, however, have told the Embassy that they would still prefer to replace him before an election, even if there is currently no clear choice to reverse the party's downward slide. ZUMWALT