VERIFICATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES' ACTIONS A

UNCLAS TOKYO 002767 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR S/SECC - TODD STERN, JONATHAN PERSHING, PETER OGDEN EAP/J - VIRGINIA MURRAY AND HEATHER DRESSER IO, G OES/EGC - TRIGG TALLEY, KATE LARSEN, EDWARD FENDLEY, CHRISTO ARTUSIO, AND AMANDA VOCKERODT E - PAUL BROWN PASS TO USAID USDOC FOR NOAA CLIMATE CHANGE OFFICE - SID THURSTON WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ - NANCY SUTLEY USDOE FOR S-3 - ROBERT MARLAY PASS TO USTR FOR BEEMAN EPA FOR CHRISTOPHER GRUNDLER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV ENRG PREL KGHG JA SUBJECT: VERIFICATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES' ACTIONS A RED-LINE ISSUE FOR JAPAN IN COPENHAGEN REF: A. TOKYO 2512 ¶B. TOKYO 2067 ¶1. (SBU) A proposal by developing countries to exempt domestically-funded climate actions from measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) will be a red-line issue for Japan at upcoming UNFCCC climate negotiations in Copenhagen December 7-18, according to Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) DDG for Global Environmental Affairs Jun Arima. Arima, a member of the Japanese delegation to Copenhagen, told EMIN on December 3 that Japan shares the U.S. belief that it is imperative to measure mitigation actions by all major emitters in order to effectively limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) levels. He stressed the need for any new agreement to include binding commitments from all major emitters, noting that the Kyoto Agreement covered only 30% of global emissions. He said extending Kyoto is a non-starter for Japan. ¶2. (SBU) On financial assistance to developing countries, Arima underscored Japan's alignment with the U.S., while noting the difficulty the U.S. would have in proposing specific monetary pledges at Copenhagen. He predicted the best realistic outcome from Copenhagen would be an agreement on the modalities and governance of assistance programs, rather than specific dollar commitments from each country. A climate advisory panel of GOJ ministers and state secretaries, led by Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan, is working on details of the Hatoyama Initiative to provide climate mitigation and adaptation assistance to developing countries (Ref A) and is expected to present these at Copenhagen. ¶3. (SBU) A separate working group in the PM's climate advisory panel is preparing cost estimates for various scenarios to reach Japan's 25% emission reduction target (from 1990 levels) by 2020. Arima admitted Japan will almost certainly need to purchase some carbon credits from overseas to meet its ambitious target but stressed the need to balance the cost of domestic actions against the outflow of wealth that would result from purchasing emissions reductions in other countries. ROOS