Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO2745
2009-12-01 05:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:
KANTEI INSIDER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FUTENMA DECISION
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002745
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR JA
SUBJECT: KANTEI INSIDER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FUTENMA DECISION
Classified By: DCM James P. Zumwalt per 1.4 (b/d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002745
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR JA
SUBJECT: KANTEI INSIDER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FUTENMA DECISION
Classified By: DCM James P. Zumwalt per 1.4 (b/d)
1. (C) Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary and Hatoyama confidante
Yorihisa Matsuno told Embassy Tokyo November 30 that he is
pessimistic about the PM's ability to reach a decision on
Futenma "anytime soon." The reason is coalition politics,
Matsuno explained. Over the past several days, the Socialist
Democratic Party (SDP) has begun to threaten to bolt the
coalition with the DPJ in the event that the PM proceeds with
the current plan to build the Futenma Replacement Facility
(FRF) in Henoko. At its core, the SDP is a "peace and
anti-base, anti-Alliance party," Matsuno said. Even if the
DPJ were to try to "pay off" the Socialists with some
compromise on welfare or child support issues, for example,
Matsuno did not believe that the SDP would soften its
position on Futenma.
2. (C) Although the DPJ enjoys a large majority in the Lower
House, it needs the Socialists' seats in the Upper House for
a majority, Matsuno continued. Until the July 2010 Upper
House election -- in which the DPJ hopes to gain a majority
of its own -- SDP support is critical to pass legislation
such as the FY 09 supplementary budget and FY 10 regular
budget. Matsuno also did not believe that the DPJ would be
able to poach enough opposition members or others in the
Upper House to make up for possible lost SDP votes. "Once we
have a majority in the Upper House, the SDP and our coalition
will no longer matter, but until then, we need them," Matsuno
concluded.
ROOS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR JA
SUBJECT: KANTEI INSIDER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FUTENMA DECISION
Classified By: DCM James P. Zumwalt per 1.4 (b/d)
1. (C) Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary and Hatoyama confidante
Yorihisa Matsuno told Embassy Tokyo November 30 that he is
pessimistic about the PM's ability to reach a decision on
Futenma "anytime soon." The reason is coalition politics,
Matsuno explained. Over the past several days, the Socialist
Democratic Party (SDP) has begun to threaten to bolt the
coalition with the DPJ in the event that the PM proceeds with
the current plan to build the Futenma Replacement Facility
(FRF) in Henoko. At its core, the SDP is a "peace and
anti-base, anti-Alliance party," Matsuno said. Even if the
DPJ were to try to "pay off" the Socialists with some
compromise on welfare or child support issues, for example,
Matsuno did not believe that the SDP would soften its
position on Futenma.
2. (C) Although the DPJ enjoys a large majority in the Lower
House, it needs the Socialists' seats in the Upper House for
a majority, Matsuno continued. Until the July 2010 Upper
House election -- in which the DPJ hopes to gain a majority
of its own -- SDP support is critical to pass legislation
such as the FY 09 supplementary budget and FY 10 regular
budget. Matsuno also did not believe that the DPJ would be
able to poach enough opposition members or others in the
Upper House to make up for possible lost SDP votes. "Once we
have a majority in the Upper House, the SDP and our coalition
will no longer matter, but until then, we need them," Matsuno
concluded.
ROOS