KANTEI INSIDER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FUTENMA DECISION

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002745 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR JA SUBJECT: KANTEI INSIDER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FUTENMA DECISION Classified By: DCM James P. Zumwalt per 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary and Hatoyama confidante Yorihisa Matsuno told Embassy Tokyo November 30 that he is pessimistic about the PM's ability to reach a decision on Futenma "anytime soon." The reason is coalition politics, Matsuno explained. Over the past several days, the Socialist Democratic Party (SDP) has begun to threaten to bolt the coalition with the DPJ in the event that the PM proceeds with the current plan to build the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) in Henoko. At its core, the SDP is a "peace and anti-base, anti-Alliance party," Matsuno said. Even if the DPJ were to try to "pay off" the Socialists with some compromise on welfare or child support issues, for example, Matsuno did not believe that the SDP would soften its position on Futenma. ¶2. (C) Although the DPJ enjoys a large majority in the Lower House, it needs the Socialists' seats in the Upper House for a majority, Matsuno continued. Until the July 2010 Upper House election -- in which the DPJ hopes to gain a majority of its own -- SDP support is critical to pass legislation such as the FY 09 supplementary budget and FY 10 regular budget. Matsuno also did not believe that the DPJ would be able to poach enough opposition members or others in the Upper House to make up for possible lost SDP votes. "Once we have a majority in the Upper House, the SDP and our coalition will no longer matter, but until then, we need them," Matsuno concluded. ROOS