DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/17/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 002657 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/17/09 INDEX: (1) Poll: Hatoyama cabinet, political parties (Asahi) (2) Obama's Tokyo speech: President should flesh out concrete image of "Pacific nation" (Tokyo Shimbun) (3) "Seiron" column: Global warming diplomacy reflects national interest calculations (Sankei) ARTICLES: (1) Poll: Hatoyama cabinet, political parties ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged) November 17, 2009 Questions & Answers (Figures are percentages, rounded off. Bracketed figures denote proportions to all respondents. Figures in parentheses denote the results of the last survey, conducted Oct. 11-12.) Q: Do you support the Hatoyama cabinet? Yes 62 (65) No 21 (16) Q: Why? (One reason only. Left column for those marking "yes" on previous question, and right for those marking "no.") The prime minister is Mr. Hatoyama 5(3) 4(1) It's a DPJ-led cabinet 26(16) 20(4) Policy 46(29) 46(10) Action 18(11) 26(5) Q: Which political party do you support now? Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 46 (46) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 14 (15) New Komeito (NK) 3 (3) Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 (2) Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1) Your Party (YP or Minna no To) 0 (1) People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0) Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 (--) New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) Other political parties 0 (0) None 28 (29) No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 6 (4) Q: Do you think the DPJ should carry out policy measures listed in its manifesto released for this summer's general election for the House of Representatives, or do you think the DPJ may review them flexibly? Carry out policy measures 16 Review them flexibly 77 Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's economic and employment measures? Yes 37 TOKYO 00002657 002 OF 006 No 38 Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's defense policy? Yes 36 No 36 Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's pension and healthcare policies? Yes 48 No 28 Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's efforts for reducing government waste? Yes 76 No 14 Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's efforts for changing politics that have depended on bureaucrats? Yes 69 No 18 Q: Concerning the Hatoyama cabinet, there is the criticism that the prime minister has flip-flopped and his cabinet ministers have been divided over important issues. Is this criticism on the mark? Yes 61 No 27 Q: The Hatoyama cabinet has decided to review the privatization of state-run postal services. Do you approve of postal privatization? Yes 49 No 33 Q: The president of Japan Post has changed from Mr. Yoshifumi Nishikawa in the private sector to Mr. Jiro Saito, who was administrative finance vice minister. Do you think this is contradictory to the Hatoyama cabinet's advocacy of doing away with bureaucratic control and prohibiting the amakudari ("descent from heaven") practice of retired bureaucrats moving into public corporations or private businesses? Yes 59 No 30 Q: We would like to ask you about the issue of relocating the U.S. military's Futenma airfield in Okinawa Prefecture. Japan, before its change of government, reached an intergovernmental agreement with the U.S. to relocate Futenma airfield to Okinawa Prefecture's Nago city. Do you think it would be better to honor this agreement, or do you think it would be better to review the agreement and renegotiate with the U.S.? Honor the agreement 28 Review it and renegotiate with the U.S. 54 TOKYO 00002657 003 OF 006 Q: The Hatoyama cabinet has decided to extend 450 billion yen in civilian aid to Afghanistan in lieu of discontinuing the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian Ocean. Do you approve of this? Yes 38 No 41 Q: Prime Minister Hatoyama's fund-managing body has filed political fund reports with contributions from fictitious individuals. Mr. Hatoyama gave an explanation. Were you convinced by his explanation? Yes 19 No 68 Q: Do you approve of using taxpayers' money to bail out Japan Airlines? Yes 40 No 46 Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Nov. 14-15 over the telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on a three-stage random-sampling basis. Households with one or more eligible voters totaled 3,598. Valid answers were obtained from 2,153 persons (60 PERCENT ). (2) Obama's Tokyo speech: President should flesh out concrete image of "Pacific nation" TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 5) (Editorial) November 15, 2009 Although U.S. President Barack Obama, in his speech on Asia, did not talk about such grand ideals as the elimination of nuclear weapons and dialogue with the Islamic world, we felt his strong determination to involve the United States in Asia. We would like him to flesh out a concrete image of the United States as an "Asia-Pacific nation." "I am glad that I was able to come to Japan again," said President Obama. He began his speech by recounting his experience of visiting Kamakura as a boy. That was very much like Mr. Obama; it is typical of him to link his personal experiences to global issues when making a speech. In his Prague speech, the President called for the elimination of nuclear arms. He called for dialogue with the Islamic world in his speech in Cairo. He linked both speeches to the journey in search of his own identity. However, the President's speech in Tokyo was slightly different from his previous ones. He did not present a grand vision; rather he offered realistic topics. He noted that United States has been estranged from this region in recent years; in reality, all sorts of multinational negotiation frameworks, including the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Plus Three (Japan, China, and South Korea),were formed while the U.S. was comparatively uninvolved in the region. TOKYO 00002657 004 OF 006 Besides economic cooperation, the other main topics of his speech were the role of China and nuclear proliferation, as well as North Korea and Myanmar (Burma). Regarding China, which has gained in international influence, the President said: "I welcome China's growing role on the international stage. I have no intention of containing China." On the other hand, he expressed the view that the alliance with Japan, which shares democratic values with the United States, is the basis of regional stability, while stressing the importance of human rights, freedom of speech, and free elections. The President showed maximum consideration to Japan, relations with which are now strained over the base issue. On the elimination of nuclear weapons, the President underscored that the United States as a nuclear power will promote negotiations on nuclear disarmament, while saying that so long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States will guarantee the security of its allies through nuclear deterrence. We hope that the President will make further efforts for nuclear disarmament with Russia. President Obama took a stance of starting direct negotiations with North Korea, which has stepped up the development of nuclear weapons, and with Myanmar, where human rights are a serious issue, by offering a fresh path to encourage them to participate in the international community. The President announced that the United States is a Pacific nation, while saying, "Asia and the United States are joined by the Pacific Ocean." As the first Pacific president, born in Hawaii and raised in Indonesia, he promised to exercise leadership. To what degree will President Obama be able to draw an overall picture of a Pacific nation in the two years before he hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit? That is his immediate challenge. (3) "Seiron" column: Global warming diplomacy reflects national interest calculations SANKEI (Page 7) (Full) November 17, 2009 Shohei Yonemoto, professor at Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo Policy issues for a "new Japan" Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama made a speech at the UN climate change summit shortly after he formed his cabinet and announced that Japan will aim at reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. While this speech on the 25 percent reduction won international acclaim, it has caused widespread confusion domestically, and the reaction has been negative. There is even an opinion that the new prime minister sacrificed national interests in his attempt to gain international popularity. However, such an opinion is based on misunderstandings about the significance of both the change of administration and of the global warming issue. Prime Minister Hatoyama further declared the birth of a "new Japan" at the General Debate of the UN General Assembly and discussed five foreign policy issues for the new administration: response to the TOKYO 00002657 005 OF 006 world economic crisis, global warming, nuclear disarmament, aid for poverty reduction, and building an East Asian community. He stated at the beginning of his speech: "Since the Second World War, Japan has not experienced a change of government through an election. The relationship of tension between the politicians and the bureaucrats disappeared. As a result, there is no denying that Japan's foreign policy was somewhat deprived of vitality." In other words, the new government has learned a lesson from the bad example of past administrations, under which politicians merely told bureaucrats to come up with ideas. It is now changing the government's distance from the bureaucracy, regarding it simply as a machine for policy implementation, which is on par with other advanced countries. EU taking the lead in the emissions reduction game With regard to the issue of global warming, some consider the 25 percent reduction commitment as a repeat of the nightmare of the Kyoto Protocol. Bureaucrats often say that Japan was tricked by clever EU (European Union) diplomacy under the Kyoto Protocol. However, it could have been easily predicted even then that there would be a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions in the post-Cold War period through the 1990s due to the collapse of the economies of the old socialist countries and a shift to energy prices of the West, and that this would have been fully expected especially by 1997. It was quite natural that the EU, which was saddled with providing enormous aid to Eastern Europe and which was aware of the situation, would take advantage of this situation in global warming negotiations. What should be criticized is the incompetence of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at that time, which were insensitive to the radical changes taking place after the Cold War and failed to gather the necessary information to protect Japan's national interests. The global warming negotiations are at a standstill at present. The Hatoyama speech declared in public what is effectively the toughest possible reduction target for Japan, with the full awareness that the 1990 base year is to Japan's disadvantage and that Japanese society's energy efficiency is already very high. This is perceived as an awesome message internationally. In the first place, the nebulous issue of global warming only became an issue in international politics due to the need to find a new threat to fill the tension gap left by the rapid receding of the threat of nuclear war after the end of the Cold War. The realm of international politics is essentially an arena for the clash of national interests backed by military power. For this very reason, this is also the venue for the exchange of idealistic disarmament proposals. The same is true for global warming negotiations. The proclamation of an idealistic reduction target that is regarded as unattainable domestically also serves to put pressure on other countries by taking the moral higher ground. The EU has been the one leading this game. However, if Japan, which is likely to work doggedly toward achieving its reduction target, enters the scene as an active player and appears likely to demand that other countries also achieve a comparable level of energy efficiency, this may turn into diplomatic pressure. Furthermore, since Japan proposes to provide aid to the developing countries under the Hatoyama Initiative, but is not disclosing what proportion of the 25 percent reduction will be accounted for by such aid, other nations will always have to pay attention to Japan. TOKYO 00002657 006 OF 006 Litmus test for the new administration's Asian diplomacy It is noteworthy that Japan, which has completed its first cycle of investments in energy conservation and which has the technology, and China, which has become the top CO2 emitter in the world and which is grappling with the classic pollution issues, are located on either side of the East China Sea. What kind of political framework can the world's two most asymmetrical countries build by wrapping calculations of naked national interest inside the doctrine of fraternity (yuai)? The answer to this question is one litmus test of new administration's Asian diplomacy. The reason why there is strong resistance at home is that the target was set by completely ignoring the conventional policymaking method of adding up figures on feasible emission reduction provided by the bureaucrats. However, (it must be remembered that) Japan became the most energy efficient country in the world as a result of the oil shock rather than through a rational decision. This is because Japan has a keen sense of "national crisis" since the achievement of its rapid economic growth was founded on cheap oil from the Middle East. Other advanced countries cut back on all investments as a result of the worldwide recession, so they faced the deterioration of the environment as they entered the 1980s. On the other hand, Japan became the factory of the world, accumulating foreign currency reserves in the process until the Plaza Agreement of 1985. Unfortunately, human beings have the habit of mobilizing all their technologies when they sense a major threat. A typical example of this is the nuclear arms race during the Cold War era. The role of politics at present is to propose a set of values as well as generate a sense of urgency. A debate on reducing CO2 emissions has been rekindled in Japan, and that, precisely, is the purpose of announcing the 25 percent reduction target. It appears that the new administration is benefitting from the services of unexpectedly capable advisers. ROOS